Hello and welcome to a wonderful new segment where Jey and I will be examining the drivers currently in the Chase and determine whether we believe they will retain their Chase slot through 26 races or if they’re a Chaser — someone who will not be racing for a title.
After an offseason spent watching Rob Rausch absolutely crush it on the newest season of Peacock’s The Traitors (US), I wondered how I could incorporate a similar idea into NASCAR terms, so we’ll give this a good, college try.
Without any further ado, it’s time to find out: Is your favorite driver a faithful…or a Chaser?
1. Tyler Reddick
Tanner: There’s not much more either of us can say about Reddick that hasn’t already been said. The guy remains on a heater the likes of which many of our readers have never seen.
If we’re being completely honest, the next eight races set up well for the 45 team with Watkins Glen, San Diego, and Sonoma ahead as well as Charlotte and Michigan, ovals he’s flexed his muscle at in the past.
Verdict: Faithful
The Corning, California native showed no signs of slowing down these past few weeks, and his five wins in the first 11 races mean he is liable to enter the postseason with the most regular season wins and perhaps the regular season title.
2. Denny Hamlin
Jey: Denny Hamlin carried his 2025 form straight into 2026. To this point, Denny notched a race win, and if not for Tyler Reddick’s insane level of success, the cagey veteran would have outscored any points leader through 11 races to this point under the Chase or the playoff formats.
Hamlin and his No. 11 Toyota Camry XSE have also spent more time at the front collectively than anyone having led the most laps on the season through 11 races.
Verdict: Faithful
Hamlin should face little-to-no resistance in making the Chase as long as he and the team can continue this level of performance. The only marginal concern is Hamlin’s shoulder holding up, an old injury he re-aggravated during the offseason. The 45-year-old racer opted to race through this season and address it before what should be his final season in 2027. Should that not become an issue for him, there is no doubt that Hamlin should be competing for a title this year.
3. Chase Elliott
J: Chase Elliott has had arguably the best start to a season in his career as he sits third in points after collecting his second victory of 2026 in Texas.
Elliott and his crew chief Alan Gustafson appear to be meshing well again as the 9 team seems to be the most consistent Hendrick car in terms of pace and results.
Verdict: Faithful
Elliott sits in prime position to compete for a championship in the Chase. Many analysts argued that this format suits him better as consistency has always been his forté. While winning is still very important, it is not the free pass it was in the former playoff format. If the Napa No. 9 crew continue to perform at this level, they will compete for their second title at Homestead.
4. Ryan Blaney
T: The 2023 series champion spent much of the season’s opening weeks passing cars and remaining extremely patient with a pit crew that kept losing him positions. After changing out jackmen, it seems those issues are starting to fade.
This next set of races bodes well for the 12 team as they head to tracks like Charlotte, Pocono, Michigan, and Nashville after flexing some serious muscle on road courses, specifically at COTA this season while setting the pole at Watkins Glen last summer.
Verdict: Faithful
Blaney may be suffering from some poor pit stop luck, but his speed this season has been positively undeniable. The 12 carries the organization on its back every week and should make the postseason given how they’re running and their current points position.
5. Chris Buescher
T: The RFK Racing group does a great job of keeping all of their cars together, but the 17 team manage to highlight themselves within that bunch every single season. The 2026 season looks to be following that trajectory.
A strong showing at Texas with an array of strong tracks ahead should give them the momentum they need to cement themselves in the title race, considering Watkins Glen and Michigan are tracks he took victories at in recent years.
Verdict: Faithful
In a points-based championship system, it would be hard to sell me on the idea of all three RFK Fords missing out on the postseason. We certainly have no reason to believe its strongest car would be missing the Chase at this point.
6. Carson Hocevar
J: Carson Hocevar finds himself in the midst of a breakout season. Not only did the young phenom finally break into victory lane with his victory at Talladega, NASCAR promotes Hocevar in ways we haven’t seen a driver be presented to the public in ages.
NASCAR managed to get the Michigander into the public eye with an appearance at the Met Gala, somewhere the sport hasn’t been since Jeff Gordon. More importantly, the #77 crew display pace on a variety of track types and bring home solid finishes in contrast to last season where mechanical issues and mistakes hindered their success.
Verdict: Faithful
What remains to be seen is if this young team with a young driver can parlay this early success into year-long performance capable of competing with the upper echelon of the sport. Regardless, Hocevar has proven himself to be a capable driver for years to come; as he gets more experience, the success should follow.
7. Ty Gibbs
T: These first 11 races appear to be Ty Gibbs’ best 11 races as a Cup Series driver. Prior to this season, no one in the NASCAR garage saw Gibbs as a serious threat to hoist the Bill France Cup, but this season, the 54 team looks poised to lock themselves into the Chase early.
His maiden Cup triumph at Bristol showed a lot of mettle for a driver often criticized for making bad decisions in big moments. Not only that, Gibbs flashes pace at a plethora of facilities while firmly outclassing his more tenured teammates not named Denny Hamlin.
Verdict: Faithful
At this point in the season, he holds a 95-point gap on Joey Logano in 17th place. As such, I’m inclined to believe that the Monster machine should remain firmly in the Chase by Daytona.
8. Kyle Larson
J: The defending series champion has shown some race-winning pace in a few starts but has overperformed with a car that struggles to find and maintain speed throughout the weekend.
No real cause for concern exists yet as Kyle Larson is still as good as he’s ever been, and Cliff Daniels remains one of the best crew chiefs in the garage. Though he has fallen to eighth in points, Larson does have the second most laps led on the season.
Verdict: Faithful
Larson stands out as a firm faithful to make the Chase and should be a contender if the 5 team can iron out their pace issues and get themselves into a better points position before the postseason. It’s way too early to be sounding any sort of alarm in the 5 camp, but it remains something to keep an eye on should these struggles continue into the summer.
9. Brad Keselowski
J: Brad Keselowski opened up the 2026 campaign with ruthless consistency, a major improvement over the disastrous start to 2025 that saw him miss the playoffs.
Keselowski and his #6 Ford Mustang Dark Horse team already amassed 50 stage points through eleven races and find themselves ninth in points.
Verdict: Faithful
Keselowski should make the Chase; however to do much more than that, the flagship RFK team needs to find more pace in order to get some wins if they truly want to capture a second title for their owner-driver. If they can progress from missing the playoffs last season to being locked into the Chase this year, that’ll be a great measure of success for the entire group.
10. William Byron
T: The 24 team finds unique ways to take advantage of late-race situations that maximize their results. They have done this out of necessity as they have often lacked the speed to truly run in the top-10 on a consistent basis.
Their failure to launch at Bristol displays a team scraping the bottom of the barrel for answers and not finding something that’s comfortable for their driver. William Byron heads to a number of tracks in the near future where he’s had a lot of success in the past, though.
Verdict: Leaning Faithful
Despite a pedestrian run at COTA, Hendrick should bring strong cars to the remaining road courses on the schedule, and the ovals in the immediate future line up well for them. Byron’s pedigree and equipment dictate that he should make the Chase. We believe he will.
11. Bubba Wallace
J: Bubba Wallace kicked off the season red hot and has slowly tapered off a bit because of a couple DNFs at Martinsville and Talladega and a terrible finish at Darlington due to contact with team owner Denny Hamlin.
This team flashes the tenacity necessary to improve upon last year’s performance, which couldn’t be more clear than Bubba taking a backup car from shotgun on the field to ninth place after a practice crash at Texas.
Verdict: Faithful
Wallace holds strong amongst the group of faithfuls that should have no issue making the Chase as long as they can limit the mistakes through the summer stretch and continues to perform to their capabilities. If this team can do that, then they may be able to move back up the standings to get closer to where they need to be in order to confidently compete for a championship.
12. Ryan Preece
T: Outside of late accidents at Daytona and Talladega, Preece keeps logging solid, steady performances that are keeping the 60 team in the mix for the postseason. While only collecting two top-10s, the Connecticut native has notched 43 stage points and 10 top-20s.
Preece enters the great unknown over these next few months as his road course pace tends to be midpack while his intermediate program continues to hover just outside the top-10.
Verdict: Leaning Chaser
The 60 appears to be the lowest in the RFK pecking order, but that might not stop them from contending for victories midseason as the summer kicks into high gear. We worry it won’t be enough to keep up with more seasoned competitors behind him.
13. Christopher Bell
T: At this point in the year, 2026 has not been kind to the Oklahoma native. A two-time participant in the playoff championship race, Bell squeaks onto this list after notching just four top-10s and three top-5s in the first 11 events.
Something interesting to follow is the relationship with Bell and crew chief Adam Stevens. In the midst of their sixth season together, the duo displays a lack of chemistry at coincidentally the same point in time that Stevens’ relationship with Kyle Busch started to fray.
Verdict: Leaning Faithful
Their road course pace outside of COTA still falls short of the best drivers in the field while some ovals on the schedule (Michigan and Pocono) have recently been a big challenge for them. Having said that, it’s impossible to think they’ll miss the Chase.
14. Daniel Suárez
J: Daniel Suárez certainly found greener pastures (at least thus far) during his tenure at Spire Motorsports. Both driver and team immediately benefitted from this fresh start from as Suárez has the No. 7 Chevrolet in the best points position it’s ever been at this point in a season.
The Freeway Insurance group worked their way into a Chase spot as the team finds more pace week-over-week, including an outside pole start at Texas — only being bested by their teammate Carson Hocevar for the top spot.
Verdict: Leaning Chaser
Suárez leans faithful given the pace that both he and his teammate have shown thus far. If he and the team build off of this momentum and find more pace as they continue to get to know each other, Suárez should find himself in the Chase. For this group, that alone would be an insane jump in both performance and success versus pretty much any other time in the 7 car’s history.
15. Austin Cindric
J: Austin Cindric is showing perhaps the best pace of his career, yet the results have just not been there, whether that be due to his own bad luck or bad decision-making.
With a couple DNFs and poor pace company-wide. Cindric finds himself just inside the cutline for the Chase after 11 races, and the team is in need of a spark.
Verdict: Chaser
As such, Cindric is firmly a Chaser as things stand currently. If this team can clean up its mistakes and find a bit more innate pace (as well as a touch of luck to avoid some of the incidents that have cost them early in the year), they may be able to work their way into the Chase.
16. Chase Briscoe
T: Simply put, Chase Briscoe’s enduring motto for 2026 has been checkers or wreckers as the 31-year-old Hoosier continues to falter. Just as the ship looked to be turned around, the 19 crew got swept into The Big One at Talladega and found their way into pit road trouble at Texas.
After winning at the Tricky Triangle last season, Briscoe will undoubtedly be looking forward to Pocono as well as the World 600 and the road courses after their strength on the lefts and rights.
Verdict: Leaning Chaser
Since they made the title race last season, the 19 team set a high bar of excellence for themselves that they’re having trouble meeting, but a couple of strong weekends could shake them from the slump and shoot them up the standings.
As For Those Outside The Chase…
There are four drivers currently outside of the 16-driver Chase field through 11 races that we believe have the capabilities to still make the postseason despite a less-than-ideal start.
Those four drivers are: Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Shane van Gisbergen, and Zane Smith
(We will also be keeping an eye on the steady climb of Alex Bowman.)
The next volume of The Chasers drops on the week following the Chicagoland race, representative of the halfway point of the entire season.
That will be a two-part series where we first cover our bases regarding how our predictions played out from this article and a follow-up where we do this all over again for the next set of 16 racers in the Chase with a little more of a resume under their belts.
(Top Photo Credit: Kam Duncan/@kbdc.bsky.social on Bluesky)
pitboxpress.com 