Now that the dust has settled on a busy NASCAR offseason, the teams appear ready to hit the high banks of Daytona for the first official race of the 2026 Cup Series season.
As such, Jey and I reconvened to discuss our expectations for each team in a new column titled From Ceiling to Floor where each of us will write down what we think each team’s highest (but reasonable) expectations should be while the other takes a stab at each team’s lowest (but also reasonable) expectations.
The two of us will convene at the end to decipher what each team’s most likely outcomes will be when the season draws to a close at Homestead.
We released the first part of this series talking about Hendrick Motorsports and followed it up with our entry covering Team Penske. We have since added entries covering 23XI Racing, Richard Childress Racing, Joe Gibbs Racing, Front Row Motorsports, and Trackhouse Racing.
Now, we’re focusing on the famous Fords out of the RFK Racing shop.
Ceiling – Jey
Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing plans to rebound after failing to find victory lane or make the now defunct Playoffs in 2025. The “new” format serves their drivers well as they were super consistent in stretches last year.
At the time of writing this, Ryan Preece already snagged an exhibition win at the Clash, so I fully expect him to breakout and win multiple times this season. Chris Buescher will return to victory lane at least once as well as owner-driver Brad Keselowski.
This team will no longer have the pressure to win in order to compete for a title. As such, I feel like no team in the garage is poised as much as these three are to fully capitalize on that.
Verdict: 4 wins, all three drivers make the Chase
Floor – Tanner
Though this part of the column is supposed to describe a team’s worst possible outlook, I don’t feel like RFK’s floor is relatively high compared to several other teams.
Their three drivers should contend for several victories and snag at least one checkered flag between them. They should also fight for a chance to make the Chase with at least Buescher and Preece making it in after a consistent campaign.
Despite Keselowski’s decent start to 2026, I worry that his health will get in the way of performance, especially at some of the schedule’s more demanding tracks like Bristol or Darlington. He isn’t supposed to be fully healed until midseason, so I suspect that’ll adversely affect the organization as a whole and the 6 team in particular.
Verdict: 1 win, two drivers make the Chase
Most Likely Outcome – 2 wins; Buescher, Preece make the Chase
While we fully expect two of the three cars in the RFK stable to make the Chase, it probably differs from the RFK duo most observers have slotted into the 16 open slots. Brad’s injury will undoubtedly affect his performance, but we still expect him to visit victory lane this year.
That means one of the other two drivers will go winless and make the Chase, and we project that driver to be Buescher. Preece should find victory lane again after his Clash win and make the Chase while Buescher will easily point his way into the 10-race scramble for a title.
(Top Photo Credit: RFK Racing on Twitter)
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