From Ceiling to Floor: Trackhouse Racing 2026 Expectations

Now that the dust has settled on a busy NASCAR offseason, the teams appear ready to hit the high banks of Daytona for the first official race of the 2026 Cup Series season.

As such, Jey and I reconvened to discuss our expectations for each team in a new column titled From Ceiling to Floor where each of us will write down what we think each team’s highest (but reasonable) expectations should be while the other takes a stab at each team’s lowest (but also reasonable) expectations.

The two of us will convene at the end to decipher what each team’s most likely outcomes will be when the season draws to a close at Homestead.

The team on deck in this series is Trackhouse Racing, right after we released the first part of this series talking about Hendrick Motorsports and followed it up with our entry covering Team Penske. We have since added entries covering 23XI Racing, Richard Childress Racing, Joe Gibbs Racing, and Front Row Motorsports.

The Ceiling – Jey

Trackhouse logged a very up-and-down 2025 despite hitting their best mark for wins in a season as an organization with six. As rookie Connor Zilisch joins the team and Daniel Suarez departs, the team looks to show they have what it takes to compete for a championship in a post-playoff world.

Ross Chastain should rebound with more performances like last year’s Coke 600. He should easily be the most consistent of his teammates, which should bode well for him in the Chase. Meanwhile, rookie teammate Connor Zilisch will attempt to follow up one of the most impressive O’Reilly campaigns in recent memory. If things go well, he should have the pace to compete with his teammates for a road course victory.

Speaking of, we should see Shane van Gisbergen continue to blossom as he develops as a Cup driver, even as far as snagging his first oval win at either Daytona or Talladega. SVG has made remarkable strides as a plate racer, and it’s becoming more and more common to see him at the front of these events.

Verdict: 5 wins; van Gisbergen and Chastain make the Chase

The Floor – Tanner

Project 91’s success at the 2023 Chicago street race could see some long-term ramifications in 2026 as the team squeezes inaugural racer Daniel Suarez out of the picture in favor of multi-time Supercars champion Shane van Gisbergen and rookie wunderkind Connor Zilisch alongside Trackhouse stalwart Ross Chastain.

A team that possesses so little cumulative experience in oval racing could be poised for modest results for a majority of the schedule as Trackhouse looks to get all three cars back into competitive shape. As such, I am hesitant to project this team to do so well.

I expect SVG to win at least three of the five road course races while Connor Zilisch is liable to be the only driver that can stay in touch while Chastain grinds out hard-earned top-10s and maybe a win. Chastain remains the only driver on their team that has the consistency to make the Chase.

Verdict: 3 wins; Chastain makes the Chase

Most Likely Outcome: 4 wins, Chastain makes the Chase, Zilisch Rookie of the Year

The 2026 season represents an opportunity for Trackhouse Racing to greenlight a soft reset on their Cup program as Connor Zilisch enters the premier stock-car racing series. Everything with Ross Chastain is likely to stay the same, even with a crew chief change from Phil Surgen to Brandon McSwain.

SVG stands out as a force of nature at road courses, and while we project him to find better oval results in 2026, we suspect he will miss the Chase by a handful of points after a torrid run through the summer to get within striking distance of the cutline.

(Top Photo Credit: Team Trackhouse on Twitter)