Now that the dust has settled on a busy NASCAR offseason, the teams appear ready to hit the high banks of Daytona for the first official race of the 2026 Cup Series season.
As such, Jey and I reconvened to discuss our expectations for each team in a new column titled From Ceiling to Floor where each of us will write down what we think each team’s highest (but reasonable) expectations should be while the other takes a stab at each team’s lowest (but also reasonable) expectations.
The two of us will convene at the end to decipher what each team’s most likely outcomes will be when the season draws to a close at Homestead.
We released the first part of this series talking about Hendrick Motorsports and followed it up with our entry covering Team Penske. We have since added entries covering 23XI Racing, Richard Childress Racing, Joe Gibbs Racing, Front Row Motorsports, Trackhouse Racing, Kaulig Racing, RFK Racing, Spire Motorsports, and Legacy Motor Club.
For our last entry, we’ll be tackling coverage of all full-time, single-car teams running in the NASCAR Cup Series in 2026: Wood Brothers Racing, Hyak Motorsports, Haas Factory Team, and Rick Ware Racing.
WBR Ceiling – Jey
Wood Brothers Racing experienced their best season since Ryan Blaney drove for them. Josh Berry won early in the season at Las Vegas, and despite the insane amount of misfortune that ended their playoff chances in the first round, Berry showed tremendous improvement over his and the team’s prior seasons.
This should continue into 2026 as Berry has some better luck and is incentivized by the “new” format to avoid potentially risky situations that were his undoing in some races in 2025. Berry should be a prime candidate for a multi-win season and should be able make some noise in the Chase.
Verdict: 2 wins, Berry makes the Chase
WBR Floor – Tanner
While it isn’t Berry’s second year in the Cup Series, it remains his second with Wood Brothers Racing, and as such, the team could stumble into a sophomore slump of sorts. A modest effort at Phoenix ripped away by a wreck, but even then, their 2026 start has been far from inspiring.
Berry’s strengths at short tracks should shine as the Cup Series moves to 750 horsepower and reduced downforce at road courses and tracks below a 1.5 miles in length, but I fear he will be outshined by his effective championship teammates, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney.
Verdict: 0 wins, Berry misses the Chase
WBR Most Likely Outcome – 1 win, Berry misses the Chase
Equipped with a team that really believes in him, Josh Berry’s second year with Wood Brothers should mirror a lot of the same beats as last season: sporadic peaks (mostly at short tracks and high-wear intermediates) and continued struggles at road courses.
Wood Brothers made the postseason last year, but in a format that prioritizes consistent success, we fear that the famed Ford will be in the mix at the Chase cutline but will ultimately miss out on the postseason in 2026.
Hyak Ceiling – Jey
Hyak Motorsport’s 2025 season showed early promise before falling off a proverbial cliff about a quarter of the way through the year.
Expectations must be weighed appropriately in relation to how small Hyak is, but Ricky has proven himself capable of surviving the carnage that comes with superspeedway racing to be able to snag victories out of nowhere. With six chances to do so, he could very well snag a victory for Hyak in 2026.
Verdict: 1 win, Stenhouse Jr. top-20 in points
Hyak Floor – Tanner
After fielding questions regarding funding for much of 2025’s second half, Hyak Motorsports returns with Ricky Stenhouse for 2026. I am inclined to believe that their results will continue to be roughly the same: they’ll contend at two non-drafting ovals and be a hazard on road courses.
This team’s best bet always resides in the six superspeedways, but at the time of publishing, the Cup Series already passed by two superspeedways without a Hyak win. I suspect they won’t crawl out of this points hole they’re in and miss the postseason yet again.
Verdict: 0 wins, Stenhouse misses out on top-25 in points
Hyak Most Likely Outcome – 0 wins, Stenhouse top-25 in points
Though we do not project to see Stenhouse reaching winner’s circle, the Hyak team should be stronger this season with enhanced funding from Chef Boyardee among other new sponsors.
That said, Ricky’s skill set continues to be limited, and their relationship with Hendrick Motorsports doesn’t seem to be offering them as much support as a single-car team would hope. Their best bet is winning one of the four remaining superspeedways, which is rather unlikely.
Haas Ceiling – Tanner
Making the move from Ford to Chevrolet could present a stumbling block for this rebuilding team, but with the Hendrick technical alliance, I believe Cole Custer and the Haas crew could use that enhanced technology to propel them forward.
While I don’t have any sort of expectation that they’ll flirt with a Chase berth, this team needs to get out of the doldrums and into the top-30 in points. Their 2025 season wasn’t as bad as it could have been and showed signs of growth; I expect that will continue this season.
Verdict: 0 wins, top-25 in points
Haas Floor – Jey
Haas made the move to switch alliances from the Ford-backed RFK to the Chevy-backed Hendrick over the offseason in hopes of finding more speed. I firmly believe this is a longer road to finding competitive pace on a consistent basis than people may anticipate as this retooled group is dealing with a second straight year of starting over from scratch.
I don’t see Cole Custer seeing even a glimmer of victory lane as this team adjusts, but perhaps if they can get some consistency under their belts as far as support, they’ll be tracking towards a more fruitful endeavor in 2027.
Verdict: 0 wins, Custer misses top-30 in points
Most Likely Outcome – 0 wins, Custer top-30 in points
Much like the other single-car outfits in this entry, NASCAR remains one of the toughest motorsports to field a single-car entry, and Haas Factory Team is indicative of that struggle.
Cole Custer still shows flashes of being better than the equipment, so we suspect that they’ll punch above their weight more often in 2026, which should lead to a better points placement.
RWR Ceiling – Tanner
Honestly, if they can manage to limit the amount of cautions they’re responsible for and their DNFs, they might stand a chance at getting out of 36th in points. Until that happens, the best they can hope for is having lead-lap finishes in about 12 of the 36 points races and maybe a very fortuitous top-10 at a drafting track.
Verdict: 0 wins, top-35 in points
RWR Floor – Jey
I’m struggling to come up with a floor for this organization that looks any worse than 2025. After a solid 2024 with Justin Haley, Rick Ware seemed willing to throw that all away in the name of putting his bloodline in a NASCAR Cup seat.
After a miserable 2025 campaign and a manufacturer switch to Chevy with an RCR alliance to lean on, I look for 2026 to be a rinse-and-repeat of 2025.
Verdict: 0 wins, Last in points among full-time racers
RWR Most Likely Outcome – 0 wins, Last in points
The move to Chevrolet won’t make too much of a difference, considering they are only above Kaulig in the GM pecking order. Even then, it’s only by default because Kaulig is punting on 2026 (and maybe 2027), but we still suspect that they will falter in spite of the change.
The bigger question at play is: Will Rick Ware Racing still exist in its current capacity in 2027? With larger teams that have larger budgets lining up to expand their lineups, Rick Ware Racing could easily cash out to the tune of millions of dollars and try dominating one of the lower series.
(Top Photo Credit: Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
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