Now that the dust has settled on a busy NASCAR offseason, the teams appear ready to hit the high banks of Daytona for the first official race of the 2026 Cup Series season.
As such, Jey and I reconvened to discuss our expectations for each team in a new column titled From Ceiling to Floor where each of us will write down what we think each team’s highest (but reasonable) expectations should be while the other takes a stab at each team’s lowest (but also reasonable) expectations.
The two of us will convene at the end to decipher what each team’s most likely outcomes will be when the season draws to a close at Homestead.
We released the first part of this series talking about Hendrick Motorsports and followed it up with our entry covering Team Penske. We have since added entries covering 23XI Racing, Richard Childress Racing, Joe Gibbs Racing, Front Row Motorsports, Trackhouse Racing, and RFK Racing.
Now, we’re taking aim at the up-and-coming, often-spirited Spire Motorsports.
Ceiling – Jey
Spire went winless in 2025 but not from a lack of pace. An ill-timed caution in Atlanta, a flat tire in Michigan, and an expiring engine in the World 600 kept Carson Hocevar out of victory lane. Michael McDowell also seemed poised to compete with SVG at Chicago early before a mechanical failure ruined their day.
The addition of Daniel Suárez should help this team’s road course and drafting track prowess as Suárez excels in both categories. Suarez should be able to overcome his former teammate to capture a victory at Sonoma where he has won before in the NextGen era.
While I don’t foresee McDowell getting a victory in 2026, Hocevar could win twice this year, as long as he and the team can keep the car under him. With the amount of backing this organization has, I see these issues being resolved and getting the jump on the other Chevy teams as they all try to get a handle on the new body for 2026.
Verdict: 3 wins; Hocevar, Suárez make the Chase
Floor – Tanner
The revolving door that is the Spire No. 7 Chevy tends to chew its pilots up and spit them out into obscurity, and unfortunately for Daniel Suárez, that might not change too much with him behind the wheel.
Carson Hocevar’s hurricane-like approach to driving stands to bite him on the behind at some point in time, so while I see him notching that elusive maiden Cup victory this year, it might be a peak amidst a sequence of valleys.
Michael McDowell and Suárez appear to be duking it out for the right to stay in their ride another year while Spire leadership browses a packed free agent class, and I suspect that lack of security will affect the veteran racer and lead to another winless season.
Verdict: 1 win, no drivers make the Chase
Most Likely Outcome – 2 wins; one driver makes the Chase
This team suffers from too much movement and turbulence, but they still manage to eke out enough speed to regularly compete for stage points and top-10s. As such, their cumulative effort should be strong enough to get over the hump and get a car into the Chase this season.
That will be on the back of at least one victory for Hocevar, a driver poised to take the next step this season. The other win could also go to Hocevar, but it’s far more likely to Jey and I that Suárez gets another win this year and also contends for a Chase spot. McDowell is likely to have a similar season to last year and be the odd man out at Spire for 2027.
(Top Photo Credit: Spire Motorsports on Twitter)
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