Now that the dust has settled on a busy NASCAR offseason, the teams appear ready to hit the high banks of Daytona for the first official race of the 2026 Cup Series season.
As such, Jey and I reconvened to discuss our expectations for each team in a new column titled From Ceiling to Floor where each of us will write down what we think each team’s highest (but reasonable) expectations should be while the other takes a stab at each team’s lowest (but also reasonable) expectations.
The two of us will convene at the end to decipher what each team’s most likely outcomes will be when the season draws to a close at Homestead.
The next team on our list for this column is 23XI Racing, right after we released the first part of this series talking about Hendrick Motorsports and followed it up with our entry covering Team Penske.
We followed those entries up with 23XI Racing, Richard Childress Racing, Joe Gibbs Racing, and today, we’re covering Front Row Motorsports.
The Ceiling – Tanner
Bob Jenkins’ three-team lineup from 2025 returns for another season to power the team toward their titular end goal. Last year quickly got out of their grasp as racing without charter money made life miserable for the FRM bunch, but eventually, they were able to make marked improvements by season’s end.
While I don’t think it’s particularly likely, Front Row flashes speed rather frequently at drafting tracks, and it would not surprise me at all to see one of their three cars in victory lane this season at either Daytona, Talladega, or Atlanta.
Outside of that, I expect both Zane Smith and Todd Gilliland to compete for more top-10s after cementing a full year with their new teams while Noah Gragson just needs to improve in practically every area. If Noah can reach the checkers more than the wreckers, he’ll be doing Bob a solid.
Verdict: 1 win, Zane Smith top-20 points finish
The Floor – Jey
Front Row Motorsports also spent most of 2025 under the cloud (and lack of funding) due to the lawsuit between NASCAR and FRM/23XI. Unlike 23XI FRM has no drivers on their current roster with tenure let alone a victory at NASCAR’s highest level of competition. Signing a bunch of potential upside youth to your team is a great idea on paper but this team lacks direction and I expect that to continue into 2026.
I have seen nothing consistently at this level from any of these drivers that leads me to think that 2026 will be anything but a recovery year for FRM as Bob Jenkins looks to rebuild after going to bat for the entire sport as the common man standing next to Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin.
Verdict: 0 wins, no Chase qualifiers
Most Likely Outcome – 1 win, all three drivers finish top-30 in points
Though we expect FRM to settle out from the tumult and turmoil of last year, there’s little evidence to suggest at this time that they are due to make a big leap in performance in 2026. Smith’s good runs from last year should pay off more often with good results, but we don’t suspect he becomes a true Chase contender.
Todd Gilliland and crew chief Chris Lawson hit their stride after midseason and are likely to strengthen their relationship and results this season as well, but we aren’t holding our breath on Noah Gragson. We predict the fourth-year driver will be inside the top-30 in points, though it might not be enough to keep his ride for 2027.
(Top Photo Credit: Patrick Vallely/Pit Box Press)
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