Now that the dust has settled on a busy NASCAR offseason, the teams appear ready to hit the high banks of Daytona for the first official race of the 2026 Cup Series season.
As such, Jey and I reconvened to discuss our expectations for each team in a new column titled From Ceiling to Floor where each of us will write down what we think each team’s highest (but reasonable) expectations should be while the other takes a stab at each team’s lowest (but also reasonable) expectations.
The two of us will convene at the end to decipher what each team’s most likely outcomes will be when the season draws to a close at Homestead.
The second team on our list for this new column is Team Penske, right after we released the first part of this series talking about Hendrick Motorsports. After Penske, we touched on 23XI Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing.
The Ceiling – Tanner
The 2025 season offered a modest return for Richard Childress’ race team. Austin Dillon’s victory at Richmond went uncontested this time as he annihilated lap times rather than his competitors while Kyle Busch slowly creeped back into the playoff picture late in the year by notching solid finishes.
Now that Busch has Jim Pohlman in his ear and on the pit box, I believe Rowdy Nation will have something to cheer about this season. The 8 team struggled to find victories for the second straight year, but as the old saying goes, the third time (or year) will be the charm as I expect him to get one win and make the Chase.
Dillon is another case altogether. I anticipate that he will compete at Richmond again; however, I don’t put much faith in their abilities to transcend their past performance and become a surprise playoff contender. A top-20 points finish and a win would be huge for the future of the 3 crew.
Verdict: 2 wins, Busch makes the Chase
The Floor – Jey
Richard Childress Racing largely underwhelmed in 2025 with their lone win coming at Richmond in the summer with Austin Dillon. Outside of that, both drivers struggled to find pace, and Kyle Busch struggled to keep the car facing the right way and out of the wall most weeks.
Changes were made in an effort to find some speed and get the RCR Chevys into contention more than once yearly. Most notably, Jim Pohlman takes over as Kyle Busch’s crew chief while Andy Street got promoted to competition director. These changes don’t address their most glaring issue: unloading terribly every race and rebounding late. By that point, they fail to recoup enough spots, or Busch wrecks, rendering their efforts moot.
With the changes to the Chevy body on top of the issues already stacked against this team, it seems like a forgone conclusion that they will struggle yet again to bring anything resembling race-winning pace to the track for the majority of 2026.
Verdict: 0 wins, no cars make the Chase
Most Likely Outcome – 1 win, Busch makes the Chase
Both analysts expect Jim Pohlman to make a difference on the top of the 8 team’s pit box, but the positive improvements are unlikely to fling RCR back into title contention. The nature of qualifying for the Chase will allow Busch to stop racing like a bonehead and secure better finishes as a result.
We believe Austin Dillon will continue to be a contender on drafting tracks and at Richmond, but otherwise, we do not expect him to be a Chase contender, let alone a title contender.
(Top Photo Credit: RCR Racing on Twitter)
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