Now that the dust has settled on a busy NASCAR offseason, the teams appear ready to hit the high banks of Daytona for the first official race of the 2026 Cup Series season.
As such, Jey and I reconvened to discuss our expectations for each team in a new column titled From Ceiling to Floor where each of us will write down what we think each team’s highest (but reasonable) expectations should be while the other takes a stab at each team’s lowest (but also reasonable) expectations.
The two of us will convene at the end to decipher what each team’s most likely outcomes will be when the season draws to a close at Homestead.
The next team on our list for this column is 23XI Racing, right after we released the first part of this series talking about Hendrick Motorsports and followed it up with our entry covering Team Penske.
The Ceiling – Tanner
Let’s get the elephant out of the room: I don’t expect Riley Herbst to reach the top-25 in driver points this season. If he ended the year with five top-10s and a top-5 at a drafting track, that should be considered a stark improvement for the 35 bunch.
As for the rest of the team, I suspect we’ll see as much as seven wins for this team: three for Bubba Wallace, three for Tyler Reddick, and nope, not one for Herbst. I project that Corey Heim will win a Cup race this year while racing on a part-time basis.
Wallace and Reddick should be shoo-ins for the Chase field, though 23XI’s consistency concerns me to some extent. With the lawsuit and the bad blood in the rearview mirror, Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin’s brainchild should see their best season to date.
Verdict: 7 wins, Wallace and Reddick both make the Chase
The Floor – Jey
23XI persevered through the dark cloud that was 2025 quite well. Winning a Crown Jewel race at the Brickyard 400 with Bubba Wallace, the Jordan duo flexed their muscles at other tracks like Richmond before issues derailed winning efforts from the 23 or the 45. 23XI put two of their three cars into the playoffs and would’ve made the semifinal if not for the team owner trying to play hero with a half broken car at Kansas.
Unfortunately, 2026 will be a down year for the organization as they emerge from the lawsuit. They not only are going to be stretching resources to the 35 car in an effort to get more speed out of Riley Herbst; they also announced that prospect Corey Heim will be making 12 starts in the 67 car.
These new factors — combined with some sponsorship changes like McDonald’s exit and Monster rumored to do the same — will cause the top-end speed of all four of 23XI cars to suffer, with Bubba Wallace notching the team’s lone win at Richmond where they have shown incredible pace the last few outings after notching a wild Daytona 500 victory with Tyler Reddick.
Verdict: 2 wins, Reddick, Wallace make the Chase
Most Likely Outcome – 3-4 Wins; Reddick, Wallace make Chase
A stirring Daytona 500 effort by lap leader Bubba Wallace, top-10 finisher Riley Herbst, and champion Tyler Reddick should propel this team to new heights in 2026 with more than one driver scoring wins for the first time since 2022 with Bubba and Kurt Busch.
Now that they’ve moved on from the lawsuit, we expect Bubba and Tyler to put up at least one victory apiece with at least one driver finding victory lane multiple times. One of them could emerge as a true title contender if the Chase races break their way.
(Top Photo Credit: 23XI Racing on Twitter)
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