Now that the dust has settled on a busy NASCAR offseason, the teams appear ready to hit the high banks of Daytona for the first official race of the 2026 Cup Series season.
As such, Jey and I reconvened to discuss our expectations for each team in a new column titled From Ceiling to Floor where each of us will write down what we think each team’s highest (but reasonable) expectations should be while the other takes a stab at each team’s lowest (but also reasonable) expectations.
The two of us will convene at the end to decipher what each team’s most likely outcomes will be when the season draws to a close at Homestead.
The second team on our list for this new column is Team Penske, right after we released the first part of this series talking about Hendrick Motorsports.
The Ceiling – Tanner
The much-heralded driver roster at Team Penske stepped up throughout the beginning of the NextGen era as Joey Logano took home the Cup in 2022 and 2024 while teammate Ryan Blaney joined him as a series champion in 2023. Their winning ways escaped them in 2025, however, as none of their drivers made the Championship Four to make it four-in-a-row for the Captain.
Despite all three racers winning a race last season for the second straight year, Penske failed to show winning speed at intermediate tracks, which ultimately led to their downfall. The return of The Chase should help sew up some of those issues.
Winning used to be the name of the game for Team Penske; this popped up a ton with Joey Logano throughout 2024 as he was either running 20th or mixing it up at the front for the win. He was able to win a title racing like that!
That will be impossible to do in the renewed Chase era. Now that every race team is rethinking how they approach each race, I expect Ryan Blaney to bring home more victories as well as Austin Cindric. Joey Logano in an even-numbered year will strike again by being a title contender with multiple wins.
Verdict: 10 wins, all 3 drivers make the Chase
The Floor – Jey
Penske had a down year in 2025 despite all three of the Captain’s drivers taking trips to victory lane. Ryan Blaney was easily the best car on track nearly every week but couldn’t avoid incidents or mechanical issues that plagued the 12 team throughout the season.
Joey Logano is no spring chicken as he enters his 19th full time season of competition. Combine that with the format changes, I believe the #22 team finds themselves settling for top-10 finishes instead of pushing for wins. Austin Cindric appeared on the cusp of having a true breakout season for the past two years now, and unfortunately, that will continue.
As for RyanBlaney, we continue to see the same issues from 2025 plague them as the team has done little internally to address them. Despite this, I see Blaney winning twice and stumbling into the Chase while his teammates manage a single win between them likely at plate tracks where Penske has flexed dominance.
Verdict: 3 wins, 2 drivers make the Chase
Most Likely Outcome – 5-6 wins, Blaney and Logano make the Chase
Ryan Blaney shows no signs of slowing down, scoring three wins in 2023 and 2024 prior to having a career-high four after claiming last year’s season finale at Phoenix. Even-year Joey Logano persists and should make his presence felt at certain points in the regular season, but he and Paul Wolfe will turn it up in the Chase.
Austin Cindric is liable to notch a victory again this year, but his consistency still gives Jey and I cause to pause to give him a vote of confidence to make the Chase. From there, Logano and Blaney should command a fair amount of attention in the postseason, possibly fighting for their next championships.
(Top Photo Credit: Team Penske on Twitter)
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