2025 Burning Questions Vol. 1

Coming into the 2025 NASCAR season, Jey and I thought we’d blow the dust off of our column from last season where we take burning questions from a diehard fan and a casual fan and answer them here.

Without further ado, let’s get started!

Can Penske win a 4th straight title? Why will they and why won’t they?

Jey: I think we’ve seen about the last of the Penske teammates working together in superspeedway races after half of their fleet was taken out in the same crash at Daytona.

We’ll likely see manufacturers still work together, but I can’t see Roger sending his drivers up to the front to get wrecked out as a result of low-percentage moves not panning out.

Tanner: So, to clarify, you think this was Ryan Blaney’s last straw? In my mind, he’s the only one of the Penske drivers committed to being a good teammate.

Jey: No, I think we won’t see Penske cars pace the field; they’ll lag back like Denny does at the superspeedways.

Tanner: I have a simple question: What is stopping them?

Because the last time I checked, Ryan Blaney is still elite at Martinsville and Las Vegas while clearly mastering Talladega and the photo finish. That’s without getting into Phoenix where he has the best average finish of anyone in the NextGen car.

Cindric is a fantastic superspeedway and road course racer, so even he could sneak into the Championship 4.

Logano has everyone’s number at Vegas no matter the circumstances and performs well at Talladega and Martinsville often enough to warrant concern for his competition.

I have no reason to believe a Penske car is not going to win it all again this season.

Jey: While you bring up valid and concise points, I firmly believe the Playoff format will get more and more chaotic until something stops it, so I can’t personally hedge my bets on anything not going as sideways as Nashville last year in an instant.

How do you think the implementation of the Xfinity Fastest Lap will affect races?

Jey: I don’t see it affecting much of anything for one simple reason: The rich always get richer.

What I’m implying is that, more often than not (sans superspeedways), this award will be taken by the same group of guys that qualify up front, get the clean air early on a green race track, and are usually the same cast of characters that compete for stage wins.

I don’t earnestly see the bubble Playoff guys going out and competing for this point on the regular, and as such, I don’t think it’ll wind up ever being much of a change in those cutline battles at all.

Tanner: We fall into a similar camp.

In my appearance on the Gay Racing Podcast, I shut down its significance because it’s just one point. Could it decide the regular-season champion? Sure, but that could be said about a late-race pass for 12th at Nashville.

Having a strong opinion on this rule means you should touch grass. It’s a silly rule for sure, but everything about this points system is silly.

Is this Alex Bowman’s final season at Hendrick?

Jey: As of today, it’s about 50/50 if we see Alex Bowman back in the Ally 48 next year. Much of it comes down to how Bowman and Justin Haley both perform.

One has the in-house Hendrick backing and all that comes with it, and one has Rodney Childers, who has been a great CC for a while now.

If Bowman can return to “Showman” status, I believe he will be back for at least another few years.

Tanner: I disagree. Alex Bowman will be back with Hendrick Motorsports in 2026.

My prediction for Bowman’s season is a Round of 8 berth because of multiple race wins. He will have a season similar to the start of 2023 where he was ruthlessly consistent before his back injury sidelined him.

Justin Haley won’t turn heads this year in my estimation. I thought Spire would at least be strong at Daytona, and they were virtual no-shows. Rodney Childers is a great crew chief, but I’m beginning to feel his best races are behind him.

Haley and Hocevar won’t be impressive enough to take that car from him, but a Chevy development driver in Xfinity might be coming for the 48 car instead.

Jey: Jesse Love?

Tanner: Nope, but a friend of his. Connor Zilisch. If Connor goes on a massive rookie campaign in Xfinity, every owner in the garage is going to come at him with a big check to get him out of Trackhouse.

In the same spirit as the previous question, which driver must perform in order to secure a Cup ride for 2026?

Jey: My pick would have to be Zane Smith.

He has to prove he can run with or above his teammates, not just after the holes already dug either. I’m not sure if it was Spire last year, him, or something just not going right, but he’s in a similar situation this year. The former Truck Series champ must show up and show out to keep that ride beyond this year.

Tanner: Zane failed to perform in the first half of last year, which was widely publicized.

The issue was that his team had a number of factors acting against him. His team was completely brand new from creation, to driver, to crew chief.

He was under a different set of circumstances compared to his teammates because Zane’s data was tied to Trackhouse as opposed to Hocevar and Haley/Lajoie who pulled from Hendrick.

Zane was behind the 8-ball at every possible turn last year and still mounted a worthy second-half charge where he improved mightily.

Jey: Zane has an even playing field now. It’s time to prove he deserves to be at the Cup Series level. Hate to be so blunt, but that’s the business.

Tanner: As for me, you have to look at Ty Dillon, John Hunter Nemechek, Chase Briscoe, and Daniel Suárez.

Ty Dillon often ends up ceding his ride to someone viewed as the next big thing, whether that be Noah Gragson at Legacy Motor Club or Carson Hocevar at Spire. I fear for him that trend will continue.

JHN has shown flashes of being the driver that was rumored to take the #48 from Jimmie Johnson after 2020.

Now that he’s racing for Jimmie, he really needs to show marked improvement this season in order to keep that car from going to someone else in the very backed-up Toyota pipeline after being involved in the most cautions last year.

Chase Briscoe is in a similar spot as Nemechek. He has obviously won at this level, including last year’s incredible Southern 500 victory that propelled him to the Round of 12.

It all comes down to his relationship with crew chief James Small and how much JGR would place any blame on one or the other if the season goes sour.

Small only mustered three wins with MTJ behind the wheel, and they all came within 10 weeks of each other in 2023. He went winless the other two years of NextGen, which gives me cause to pause.

For Briscoe and Small, it’ll be about getting the most out of each other without going over the edge, something they’re both known for doing. If not, again, there are a ton of young Toyota drivers in the pipeline.

Daniel Suárez lost one of his closest allies at Trackhouse in Pitbull after the team partner broke his agreement with the team. It puts a lot of pressure on Daniel to perform this season, and if Chevy has a down year, that could be a major concern for him and his career outlook.

For him to keep his Trackhouse ride, he would need to make it to the Round of 8 and win at least twice, and he has yet to do that to this point. The lone Mexican driver in the series must perform to keep Connor Zilisch from taking the #99 away. Of this quartet, I’m most concerned for Suárez and JHN because Zilisch and Corey Heim seem inevitable.

Jey: The only caveat I have is I firmly believe Chase Briscoe — like his former teammate Ryan Preece — will get two seasons to figure it out at JGR.

I believe James Small’s leash is a bit shorter, and he needs results to stay on the pit box for 2026. I agree adamantly on the rest, especially the drivers we should be most concerned about especially with Zilisch already getting Cup starts at such a young age (18).

How many 2024 Playoff drivers will not return? How many who missed the Playoffs will make it?

Tanner: I indicated on several live appearances during the offseason that Chase Briscoe won’t make it back but win once in the postseason as a spoiler.

That take hasn’t aged super well after Daytona where he finished top-5 and got the pole, but I’ll stand by it.

In addition, Truex is retired, and Harrison Burton has been banished to Xfinity. If I had to guess, I believe Chastain and Wallace will make it back, SVG wins a race, and Chris Buescher gets in on points. If I had to make a really hard guess, Brad Keselowski will miss out.

Jey: I’ll put a disclaimer in front of mine: I believe we have more than 16 winners in the first 26 races.

That said, one of either Brad Keselowski or Ty Gibbs will miss the playoffs with a win. They’ll be struck by some attrition while other contenders rise from last year, causing them to just miss the Playoffs.

As for drivers that missed last year that make it? I gotta put my money on Bubba Wallace, and I’ll take a deep shot by saying the 21 WBR car returns to the Playoffs with Josh Berry at the helm.

Tanner: Let me get this straight: you think Gibbs and Brad will win a race and miss, so they’ll be outpointed by Berry?

Jey: I said it was a deep shot, but I firmly believe if Josh can perform to that car’s capabilities, (plus the flashes he showed in the 4) he can reach the postseason.

Tanner: Yes, but pivotally, he’d probably have to win twice rather than just outpointing. I just don’t see that.

If Bubba Wallace’s pit issues are solved, what is his ceiling for the 2025 season?

Tanner: Three wins and a Championship Four appearance.

I know this sounds wild to many, but look at how the Playoffs lay out for him. Darlington and Bristol are strong tracks for Bubba, and I would hope he could improve at Gateway or have enough points banked up it wouldn’t matter.

New Hampshire is one of his best tracks traditionally, so there’s nothing stopping him from perhaps winning that event. Follow that up with Kansas where he won his most-recent race and the Roval, his best road course, and he’s set up to make the Round of 8.

Bubba has shown a lot of speed at Vegas in the past, and Talladega is a great track for him as well. Martinsville is a place where he has a lot of great history and knows how to get around there.

These Playoffs are practically made for someone with Bubba’s skillset to succeed, and it’s all about execution and how much Charles Denike can mesh with his new driver. Their pairing looks great so far.

Jey: I think that is an incredible but reachable ceiling for Bubba with what we’ve seen his teammate Reddick do in the same cars when things go right.

I’ll put him just a step lower in the Round of 8 with two wins because I think calamity will cost him the win at Talladega and put him in a hole he from which he won’t recover.

I could see him winning at either Bristol or Richmond easily if the pit crew can match the pace he showed in his recent showings at those tracks.

With a fresh mindset this year and a fresh crew, Bubba is really poised to be in the position to capitalize when the moment arises for maybe the first time in his career. I’m very excited to see what he does, and I hope that he breaks through my ceiling and reaches yours.

How much of an impact will Michael McDowell have on Spire?

Jey: Minimal if any to be honest.

What we have at Spire is three teams with three separate ideas and goals that aren’t gonna to share too much info “for the good of the teams”.

The 7 and 77 teams will benefit from having a stout third team to drive them to perform better, but I don’t see McDowell himself being a catalyst for some bigger evolution of Spire beyond that.

Tanner: I believe McDowell’s expertise on road courses and superspeedways could help those programs, but we already saw with Daytona, those results weren’t instantaneous.

He is still learning the Camaro NextGen platform, as is his crew chief Travis Peterson. This will be a year where his teammates bring him up to speed more than the other way around. Hocevar already finished strong at Watkins Glen, so their road courses program can’t be too far off as is.

Jey: Hocevar definitely benefitted from some attrition at the Glen but had the pace to keep his great track position once he got up front.

Which rookie are you most excited to see?

Tanner: This might be a surprise to some, but I am more intrigued by Riley Herbst.

Shane van Gisbergen is a world-renowned race car driver that became the first driver in 60 years to win in his Cup Series debut. He won three Xfinity races last year, and it probably should have been more.

I suspect that SVG performs well on road courses and surprises at a few ovals, but I feel like that’s to be expected. On the other hand, Riley Herbst is a wild card.

He showed speed at times in Xfinity, but he lacked the consistency and early-season performances to really compete in the postseason.

Entering 23XI at this time could be a great move for the 26-year-old racer because you don’t know how many opportunities at Cup you’ll get with a team on the rise.

Since Herbst isn’t exactly elite at any kind of track type, I worry that he’ll struggle in Cup as a rookie, but I’m looking forward to finally getting a true look at Riley Herbst this season.

Jey: I can definitely see the intrigue Herbst brings, but I’m fully behind the Kiwi this year.

SVG’s resume is obviously much more expansive with nearly a decade more experience behind the wheel in major competition compared to Herbst. The 80 SuperCars wins and 3 championships vs Riley’s 3 Xfinity wins speak for themselves.

Circumstances are obviously way different for both Riley and Shane, so setting that aside, Shane’s oval results were mighty impressive given what level Kaulig was at last year.

Outside of his elder teammate’s late-season win, SVG ran around Almendinger more than I expected, and he definitely got better on the second visits to a lot of tracks. I expect that to be the trend this year as well.

I believe Riley will have a slight edge on ovals because of the car he’s in. As the season matures, SVG will move ahead and be faster than Riley on both ovals and road courses.

Tanner: Especially when you consider it took Herbst five seasons to get those three victories whereas it only took van Gisbergen one full season in Xfinity to notch the same amount, even passing Herbst briefly until the season finale race at Phoenix where the score was knotted up.

Speaking of SVG, what should his expectations be for the year?

Tanner: He had better win. Win once and show improvement at ovals. He needs to be JPM his rookie season at bare minimum. I suspect he wins the COTA race and locks himself in early.

Jey: I have him pegged as a borderline Round of 12 exit. He’ll do well enough at road courses to play at least one or two for points and have a comfortable Round of 16. SVG wins either COTA or Sonoma and recaptures his trophy to bookend the Chicago street races.

Tanner: You have him winning possibly three regular season races and losing out in the round with the Roval in it?

Jey: Look at his Xfinity season this past year. I have him almost mirroring it. Those are my expectations.

How will new broadcast partners and media rights deals affect this and future seasons?

Jey: I don’t think this year will be much more than a proving ground for the obvious viability of streaming.

We’ll see comparable (maybe higher?) numbers through the 10-race midseason streaming stretch, and in time, we will see Fox and NBC move towards a streaming model as well as more people cut out traditional cable.

Tanner: This package failed to fix the sport’s biggest issue: pushing the Playoffs.

Sure, I don’t care for the Playoffs or the idea of a postseason in auto racing. However, if the intent is for us to promote the Playoff format to the general public, how is putting the first two rounds and the third-round opener on the USA Network gaining any ground?

I mean no disrespect to the points you made, but literally forget everything else you just said, this is an outright policy failure on behalf of NASCAR. Every single Playoff race should be on NBC and Peacock.

Jey: At least simulcast races on Peacock if they “can’t” put it on big NBC. That would alleviate most of the issues I have trying to watch that time of year.

Tanner: The people that run the sport don’t know how to grow it because they come from a time where the growth of the sport came far too easily to the leaders.

Nothing NASCAR as a sanctioning body did made the sport of stock-car racing popular. What made NASCAR popular were the drivers and teams as well as their relationships with sponsors.

Do you think this is the final year of the current postseason format? If so, what would you like to see replace it?

Tanner: No. Here’s some ideas on how to replace it that NASCAR won’t listen to because they are under the impression that any opposition to their will testament is fueled by artificial influence.

Call me apathetic, but they teased a change all offseason and did nothing. That’s all the executives are good for anyway, so why should I expect different?

Jey: I don’t see the format changing either.

They have what they want, and the executives and TV partners seem to be happy with it. Those are the two propellants of change in the sport outside of Ryan Preece finding a new way to flip.

Unless something way more drastic happens, we won’t even see a hint of change. Even if they do change it, I don’t trust them to make it better in the slightest.

Tanner: My source for this comment is “someone from NASCAR” via the mouth of Denny Hamlin, but Hamlin mentioned last week on his podcast that NASCAR’s grand idea was to just add a fifth driver to the title race.

Did they just ask AI what to do?

Jey: There needs to be a total shift at the top ranks of NASCAR for there to be any profound change.

Tanner: Well, two teams are trying to do something about that!

What is your hottest take for the 2025 season?

Jey: The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series champion will lead less than 500 laps cumulatively over the course of the season for the second straight year, getting into the title race with a win at Talladega.

Tanner: My hot take is that Ross Chastain becomes the third driver at Trackhouse and actually ends up on the hot seat.

He failed to show signs of life down the stretch last season, and while he won at Kansas, it was only after the leader brought out a caution in the closing laps. He needs to return to his old ways and be aggressive or find a way to be fast with this more “mature” approach he’s shown the past two seasons.

(Top Photo Credit: Nigel Kinrade Photography)