The AdventHealth 400 represents the 12th stop on the NASCAR Cup Series calendar, taking place at the revered 1.5-mile oval Kansas Speedway.
Last week’s installment pitted the 37-driver field against the daunting Dover Downs. 400 miles and 400 laps around the track better known as the Monster Mile tests multiple facets of a driver, and it pushed a few drivers and cars entirely over the limit.
The lead changed hands a few times in the first stage before Martin Truex Jr. claimed an all-too-familiar stage win, his second of the season.
A nonstop stage 2 ended with the points leader Kyle Larson notching his sixth stage win of this early season, but shortly after the restart, a familiar foe entered the fray: Denny Hamlin.
The 3-time Daytona 500 champion stayed in the mix all day long with help from his lightning-quick pit crew. The #11 Mavis Tires & Brakes team dropped the jack and allowed Hamlin to go three-wide with Larson and Alex Bowman, exiting the pits in P1.
As green-flag stops wrapped up, Josh Berry and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. made contact, sending Stenhouse’s #47 into the inside wall and out of the race. This brought about a restart where a number of lapped cars took the wave-around to be put back on the lead lap.
This jumbling of the field resulted in rookie Zane Smith and Tyler Reddick bumping one another, and Reddick’s teammate Bubba Wallace got the worst of it by spinning on the exit of turn 2 and colliding with Christopher Bell and William Byron, putting all three drivers out of the race.
A final restart on lap 339 saw Hamlin surge ahead and hold off Larson in the closing laps to claim his third win of 2024, tying him for the series lead with Byron.
To make matters worse, the stars of the NASCAR Cup Series head to the Sunflower State for 267 laps around Kansas Speedway, a track at which Hamlin holds the wins record.
Opened in 2001, Kansas Speedway hosted one race annually until 2011 when the spring race debuted. Since the advent of the NextGen car in 2022, Toyota has claimed every victory at the track.
The 1.5-mile trioval features a curved front stretch where the traditional racing surface is more of a suggestion as drivers often opt to dive down to the apron to cut as much time and distance off of their lap.
A brief reprieve from turning ends abruptly as cars barrel into turns 1 & 2. Banked at 17° on the bottom of the track, the turns at Kansas Speedway rise progressively to 20° near the outside wall.
Drivers power through the exit of turn 2 and fly down the 2,207-foot backstretch before licking the stamp and sending it into turns 3 & 4.
Banked the same as the other end of the track, drivers rip around turn 4 and dive down to the apron to complete their lap around the thrilling intermediate.
Now that we know the track, let’s talk about what’s going on in the sky.
The Weather & Fast Facts
Last year’s edition of the AdventHealth 400 experienced gorgeous weather in the high 80s with a shining sun, producing a hot, slick race track that set a record for lead changes with 37.
At the current moment, this year’s event should be shrouded in grey tomorrow as the high is listed at 68°F, below the average of 76°F over the last 10 years.
Thankfully though, we won’t see moisture on Sunday, so this race should get going at its scheduled time of 3pm Eastern time on Fox Sports 1 with Mike Joy, Clint Bowyer, and Kevin Harvick in the booth. Race fans can expect the race to last a moment or two longer than three hours based on the last 10 spring races.
The first winner at the track was Jeff Gordon in 2001, and since then, the track has crowned 18 different winners, including former champions Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth.
While not often regarded as a calamitous track, Kansas Speedway sees more yellow than just the sunflower and corn fields, averaging nearly 9 cautions that slow the field for 43 laps.
The 2023 spring race featured the most lead changes ever at the track in one race, but the average passes for the lead normally amount to 21, one of the most unpredictable tracks on the Cup schedule.
Kansas Speedway has gained a great reputation in recent years by exceeding 2900 green-flag passes four times over the past decade, including a whooping 3632 passes under green last season.
Overtime finishes seem to be an alien concept for the spring Kansas date, only going over the scheduled distance once in 2019 when Brad Keselowski fended off a hard-charging Alex Bowman to claim the victory.
The last caution in the spring began getting further and further away from the checkered flag in 2020, so the average lap of the final caution in the last 10 spring races falls on lap 247, 21 laps from the finish.
Since we have a better idea of how the race might shake out, let’s move over to the odds from DraftKings.
The Odds
For what seems like the 12th time this season, Kyle Larson (+350) assumes the mantle as the favorite to win the AdventHealth 400 this weekend.
The driver of the #5 HendrickCars Chevy Camaro rides a stretch of five straight finishes of 8th or better at the track, and after two straight bitter defeats at the hands of Toyotas in the spring race, Larson’s team plots out their elusive second victory of 2024.
Larson’s stats at Kansas display his strength at this multi-groove circuit, scoring 7 top-5s and 10 top-10s in just 18 starts alongside 4 stage wins and 104 stage points. If another driver wins the race on Sunday, their stiffest competition will be the familiar blue, white, and red #5.
Right in Larson’s tire tracks is none other than Denny Hamlin (+400). Hamlin appeared to have a sweep at Kansas in-hand last fall before a late caution and the ensuing restart shuffled Hamlin behind eventual winner (and Hamlin’s employee) Tyler Reddick.
The Joe Gibbs Racing driver owns the wins record at Kansas and typically finds himself up towards the front of the field, leading over 400 laps and notching 13 top-5s.
Hamlin knows that this weekend is his opportunity to stamp his name as the biggest threat to the entire series, so I expect that he will do everything possible to end up in victory lane again this Sunday.
Speaking of Hamlin’s employee, Tyler Reddick (+600) won the most recent event at Kansas in an overtime finish last fall where the Californian made a three-wide pass for the lead coming to the white flag.
If you only look at statistics, Reddick appears to be a middle-of-the-road driver in Kansas City, but finishes of 30th and 35th muddy the waters of his underlying brilliance.
Reddick completed a trifecta of drivers to win in the #45 Toyota at Kansas, being preceded by Kurt Busch and Bubba Wallace. The Monster Energy driver is liable to be up front for much of the day tomorrow, assuming he can keep all four tires on the car and at a reasonable tire pressure.
Behind Reddick in odds is Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron (+700). Byron is seldom the fastest car at Kansas, scoring just 2 top-5s and 1 stage win in his 12 starts at the Midwest oval.
Byron’s seven top-10s in Chiefs’ Kingdom exemplify a driver able to make the most out of subpar days, and with the strategy calls from Rudy Fugle this season, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the #24 car pacing the field for part of this race, if not the end of it.
Now that Denny Hamlin has tied Byron in wins this season, the pressure is on the young driver and his team to respond. Becoming the first non-Toyota to win at Kansas in the NextGen era would be a statement all its own, but to claim a fourth win in just 12 races would be an exclamation point.
Last of the top-5 in odds is Martin Truex Jr (+750). The winner of both 2017 races in America’s Heartland inches closer and closer to victory each and every week this year without being able to seal the deal.
The 2017 Cup champion needs to re-establish himself after a disastrous 2023 Playoffs where the #19 team scored the regular season title and failed to make the championship race, no doubt hindered by a last-place finish here in the fall race after a flat tire ended his day in the first five laps.
As long as the New Jersey native can keep his tires clean and maintain his composure, I have no doubt the NASCAR legend finds himself in the mix for the win on Sunday evening.
Writer’s Pick
My writer’s pick for last weekend was Alex Bowman who placed a strong 8th after 400 laps around Dover.
The driver I keep my eyes on this week though? That would be 23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace.
Due to a fun points loophole his team exploited in the 2022 Playoffs, Wallace sported the #45 in an attempt to bolster Kurt Busch’s Playoff-eligible car in the owners points.
Bubba made good on the extra pressure, passing Alex Bowman with 68 laps to go before speeding off into the Kansas sunset to claim his second career victory and his first on a non-drafting track.
Michael Jordan’s flagship driver got caught up in other people’s messes the past couple of weeks after John Hunter Nemechek wadded up half of the Toyotas at Talladega before Reddick and Zane Smith put Bubba out of the race late in Dover.
In need of a major bounce-back performance, the 30-year-old should find solace in a land he’s already conquered once before, and peace for the #23 team will bring the ultimate prosperity.
(Top Photo Credit: @NASCARONFOX on Twitter)
pitboxpress.com 