While the stars of the NASCAR Cup Series spent the last two weeks rolling the dice in Daytona and Atlanta, they make their way out west to the gambling capital of America: Las Vegas, Nevada for the 24th running of the Pennzoil 400.
This weekend marks the 33rd time the Cup Series has paid a visit to the 1.5-mile Las Vegas Motor Speedway and the 24th on the high-banked rugged surface that’ll test the limits of the Goodyear tires in the cars.
Last week’s race in the ATL featured one of the narrowest winning margins in NASCAR history. Trackhouse Racing’s Daniel Suárez took the victory by .003 (three one-thousandths of a second) over defending series champion Ryan Blaney and .007 over third-place Kyle Busch.
The thrilling three-wide finish capped off a hectic race that scored rave reviews from even the most strident opponents of the new Atlanta configuration, but the story was Suárez.
The 2016 Xfinity Series champion missed victory lane entirely in 2023, missing the Playoffs and igniting rumors about his job security with Trackhouse after this season.
Clinching a playoff spot this early in the season sets Suárez up to top his 2022 performance where he claimed his first Cup victory and ended the year 10th in points.
Now that the series has crossed off two of its six superspeedway races, the real games begin, so to speak. With a smaller diffuser placed on the NextGen cars for 2024 alongside Ford and Toyota’s new car models, it’s anyone’s guess as to how the race will take shape this afternoon.
Las Vegas Motor Speedway is an intermediate track with a banked trioval, leading to drivers carrying loads of speed into and through the exit of the corners.
With the turns banked at an aggressive 24 degrees and a surface that has aged rather well, the field should be able to spread out and find multiple ways to carry the most momentum around this speedy 1.5-mile complex.
Though the uncertainty with the cars will play a sizable factor in this race, the more seasoned drivers tend to reach the top of the scoring pylon in Vegas, each of the last 10 spring races being claimed by drivers with at least five years of Cup experience.
Without further ado, let’s go see what the forecast looks like for Sunday with some help from the past.
The Weather
There isn’t much to cover in this section this week, thankfully.
Based on the last decade’s weather in north Vegas, it has only rained on the first Sunday in March twice. The 2015 edition of this race saw rain in the morning that didn’t affect the start time while the 2020 event remained dry throughout the entire race before the rain poured down near 11:30pm local time, long after the race was over.
The average high for this time of year is 64°F, and the low is 47°F. Coincidentally, Sunday’s forecast predicts a partly cloudy Sunday with a high of 63°F and a low of 44°F with not a single drop of moisture projected to fall.
This moderate weather will not abuse the track surface like the fall race typically does, but the Sun being out might affect the level of grip for drivers on the track this week.
Under Yellow
The spring Las Vegas race tends to be a relatively drama-free affair, averaging six cautions for 31 caution laps over the last 10 years.
The 2022 race was especially unhinged, seeing the field slowed down for 60 of the race’s 267 scheduled laps, the last caution coming with two to go brought the field together for the 12th and final time, sending them to Overtime where Alex Bowman snagged his most-recent Cup Series victory.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, the 2019 event saw the Cup Series go virtually caution-free, only running under the yellow twice for the end of stages one and two. I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that this was also the first race of the NA18D “550 horsepower/high downforce” package.
Every race this season will be different from the previous two seasons because of the changes made to the cars, so I imagine there would be an above-average amount of cautions and caution laps.
This is due to drivers on the Cup Series roster finding the balance of speed, patience, and tire management to enter Victory Lane, as well as finding the fine line between speed and disaster on their own for the first time this year.
Though the Cup Series field is full of high-quality talent, they occasionally push the envelope too far and make a mistake. I project that we’ll see seven cautions leading to 39 caution laps.
Some other fun facts about the last 10 spring races include the average time of race over the last 10 years being two hours, 47 minutes, and 30 seconds. With the green flag set to fly at 3:30pm Eastern Time, this race will likely end before 6:30pm.
On average, the field sees a lot of comers-and-goers throughout the day on their trips over to Nevada’s sandy mountains, presenting a lot of passing opportunities leading to an average of 2,955 green-flag passes.
Surprisingly though, all of this passing doesn’t foster many lead changes with the 10-year average being 19, only reaching a peak of 27 lead changes in 2021.
Okay, I have good news, and I have bad news.
Here’s the good news: the Cup Series has only reached Overtime at Vegas twice.
The bad news? Both instances were from the two most recent races in 2022 and 2023. They kept it together and finished in regulation for at least eight straight seasons before falling all over themselves these past couple years as they approached its end.
The Odds
Disclaimer: This is not intended to encourage you, the reader, to make a wager on this race. If you feel you have a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER for support.
The folks over at BetMGM fancy themselves odds makers, but last week’s winner (and this author’s pick to win) had odds of +3500. Meanwhile, several of the highest in odds didn’t make it to the finish, so let’s see what they think about the contenders for this weekend’s Pennzoil 400.
Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson tops the charts (+350) after a sterling runner-up qualifying effort. Larson won the most recent race at this track by a hair over Christopher Bell, his second victory at Las Vegas.
Larson leads the field over the past decade with one win, five top-fives, and seven top-10s in the spring race, and if his qualifying effort didn’t already prove he’s a contender on Sunday, his record here is sure to make a statement.
Following him is teammate William Byron (+600). The defending winner of this event, Byron looks to capitalize on early momentum after his Daytona 500 triumph two weeks ago.
His #24 Z HP Chevrolet Camaro showed his car is plenty capable of winning this weekend judging by Byron’s fourth-place qualifying run. With only three cars to pass, the North Carolina native could make his merry way to the front rather early on Sunday.
Right behind the Hendrick cars is none other than polesitter, Joey Logano. The Team Penske driver planted his Pennzoil Ford Mustang Dark Horse to the top of the charts on Saturday with a blistering lap.
Logano’s car is covered in Pennzoil regalia to honor their commitment to Logano’s race team. Logano wants to avenge his brutal defeat from this race last season by parking his car in victory lane on Sunday, a place he’s visited three times in the past five years.
Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell (+1000) rolls off the grid 10th this weekend in his electrifying #20 Interstate Batteries Toyota Camry TRD. A narrow loss at this track last fall was softened by a victory the following week that locked him into the title race, but going into Sunday, last fall’s was a missed opportunity.
Bell shows great speed at tracks with a lot of different grooves. I expect him to march to the front at the beginning of stage three and contend for the win after some adjustments in the pits from crew chief Adam Stevens.
Rounding out the top-five is none other than Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney (+1000). The ninth-year driver was an inch or two away from victory in Atlanta last week, losing closely to Daniel Suárez.
The man known as YRB sits a modest 15th-place for the start of this weekend’s race, and much like his teammate Logano, his #12 car sports a Pennzoil-inspired paint job as well. While Logano hopes to stay in front, Blaney will need to comb his way through the competition to fight for his first win of 2024.
Joining those five in the top-10 are: 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick (+1200) and Bubba Wallace (+1200); Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott (+1200); two-time Vegas winner Martin Truex Jr. (+1400); and Trackhouse Racing’s Ross Chastain (+1600).
Some other notables include: Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch (+1800); 2022 Vegas winner Alex Bowman (+2500); last week’s winner Daniel Suárez (+8000); and a big bargain bet for Spire Motorsports’ rookie Carson Hocevar (+20000).
Writer’s Pick
There are plenty of exceptional drivers that could win this event, and I am only able to choose one.
Last week, I was able to correctly select Trackhouse’s Daniel Suárez to score his second career victory last Sunday, but I have my doubts that I’ll follow that up with another correct pick.
That said, I am very confident in choosing 23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace.
Even going back to Bubba’s days at Richard Petty Motorsports, Bubba has found ways to perform well at this high-banked speedway, earning his first top-10 here in the 2020 spring race.
Wallace followed that result with a faulty transmission that knocked him out of contention in 2021 and getting collected by Erik Jones’ wounded race car with just two laps to go while running top-10 in 2022 but rebounded for a top-five last season.
After claiming his second career victory at Kansas Speedway in fall 2022, Bubba’s intermediate acumen has developed exponentially, scoring seven top-10s in 10 intermediate races over the course of the previous season.
Not only does the 23XI driver have a good record on this style of tracks, Bubba lines up fifth for Sunday’s race with only four cars standing between him and making the Playoffs in just the third race of 2024.
(Top Photo: John K. Harrelson/Nigel Kinrade Photography)
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