At the time of this writing, fifth-year Cup Series driver Austin Cindric sits 18th in the points standings after seven races, just 18 points below the Chase cutline.
Cindric’s career with Team Penske’s flagship entry exploded immediately as the North Carolina native surged to victory in the 2022 Daytona 500, giving The Captain his third Daytona 500 victory and locking Cindric into the postseason as a rookie.
A meandering 2023 season followed where he failed to score a victory or point his way into the postseason, but the young driver bounced back in a big way in 2024 with a surprise win at Gateway alongside another top-12 points finish.
Though 2025 represented a bit of a down year for Cindric when it comes to top-10s and average finish, Cindric made the postseason with a win in the Talladega 500, but the result remained the same as his previous playoff appearances: out in the Round of 12.
Now that the “win-and-you’re-in” format is no more, consistency and stage points will be the name of the game for Cindric and the 2 team in 2026. While they’ve shown pace to this season, incidents in each of the first four events hampered what could have been a strong start to the year.
Cindric arrived in the Cup Series with the expectation that he would be a road course specialist due to his background in GT3 racing and his prowess in the O’Reilly Series where he became champion in 2020.
However, Cindric’s road course skill seems to have been dampened a bit by the introduction of the NextGen car, but a trip down under to participate in the Supercars finale in Adelaide toward the end of last year proved fruitful as he was able to drive his way into contention at COTA before crash damage ruined his day.
Outside of courses with right turns, the 27-year-old tends to find himself at the front with his Penske teammates at superspeedways, becoming one of the more prolific drafting-style racers since jumping to the Cup Series.
His performance on intermediates and traditional big tracks tends to lag behind his more accomplished teammates, but the former O’Reilly Series champ mixes it up often at flatter tracks.
With that in mind, we have decided to award the Penske No. 2 Ford team a B grade.
Crew chief Brian Wilson continues to be a steady hand on the pit box that fosters Cindric’s development, and it’s plausible his skills and general temperament would translate to any driver taking the wheel of The Captain’s flagship car.
Sticking With Cindric
If Penske and Cindric were to re-up their commitment, we foresee a 2 team continuing to build themselves into a weekly contender much like how Cindric and Wilson did in the O’Reilly Series rather than regressing at all.
A stronger Cindric means a stronger Penske as his two title-winning teammates will no doubt be re-energized with a stronger teammate in the third car. Not only that, it will continue to give this current Penske group some more longevity, allowing their chemistry with one another to flourish more than ever.
Strong Candidate – Zane Smith
Since 2024, Front Row Motorsports moved up into the Tier 1 of Ford teams in terms of factory support as well as entering into a technical alliance with Team Penske. As such, we believe any Penske openings could mean that FRM drivers that are in-house are liable to be first to move into a Penske car.
The most impressive of the bunch thus far continues to be 2022 Truck Series champion Zane Smith. The California native is still just 26 years old and has bolstered his résumé in the Cup Series with strong runs at a number of tracks last season with some unfortunate results that dropped him in the points.
Smith’s 2026 looks sharper than last year already, and a move to the top Ford team could unlock Smith’s vast potential that Trackhouse saw before deciding to leave him on the curb for Shane van Gisbergen.
Suitable Replacement – Erik Jones
Though Jones has spent much of his 20s helping rebuild Legacy Motor Club after a tough manufacturer change, Jones started his career with another strong organization in Joe Gibbs Racing. Jones lost that ride due to JGR having too many drivers and not enough seats.
With a defined pedigree and a reputation for keeping the car clean, Jones could slide into the former Blue Deuce and perform at a level equal to or perhaps slightly better than Cindric within a year in our estimation, but a lot of that hinges on how strong his ties to Wilson would be throughout 2027.
Dark Horse – Carson Kvapil
A development deal between Team Penske and Carson Kvapil came to light last season, meaning The Captain has his sights set on a driver of the future for the first time since Cindric replaced Brad Keselowski. Kvapil would be following in his father’s footsteps after Travis raced for the team in 2005.
Though Kvapil has shown promise, he has yet to win a NASCAR national series race since arriving on the scene with JR Motorsports in 2024 in the O’Reilly Series. If Kvapil can snag a couple of wins before the end of 2026 and Cindric exits, Kvapil may have a path to drive one of the most storied entries in the garage.
Most Likely Outcome – Sticking With Cindric
Some folks keenly pointed out that Austin’s father Tim rejoined the company this season to be Scott McLaughlin’s team strategist after his dismissal as Team Penske’s IndyCar team president in the middle of last season, so those same folks seem to think this is a cut-and-dry decision for Penske to keep his son in Cup.
However, The Captain remains a tough customer, and if he doesn’t like what Austin has to offer as a driver, he will give him the boot and the car to a worthy competitor. For now, Cindric has improved too much in his career to not stay with Penske, so unless an unbeatable offer greets him, we expect one of the sport’s tallest drivers to stick around.
(Top Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images)
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