Now that the dust has settled on a busy NASCAR offseason, the teams appear ready to hit the high banks of Daytona for the first official race of the 2026 Cup Series season.
As such, Jey and I reconvened to discuss our expectations for each team in a new column titled From Ceiling to Floor where each of us will write down what we think each team’s highest (but reasonable) expectations should be while the other takes a stab at each team’s lowest (but also reasonable) expectations.
The two of us will convene at the end to decipher what each team’s most likely outcomes will be when the season draws to a close at Homestead.
In our first column, we chatted about our expectations for Team Penske and the Wood Brothers. As such, this article will cover the defending champions, Hendrick Motorsports.
The Ceiling – Tanner
Hot off of their 15th driver’s championship behind two-time Cup champion Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports aims to replicate their success from the Chase era where Jimmie Johnson won five titles in a row between 2006-2010.
Fortunately for Hendrick, he possesses three championship-caliber drivers, all uniquely capable of holding up the Bill France Cup at season’s end as champions Larson and Chase Elliott have been hunted in recent years by teammate William Byron.
With the new aerodynamic package from Chevy for this year’s Camaro, the creative engineers at HMS plan to reap the most rewards from a big change like this, meaning they should be eligible for more wins as the season progresses.
If they can generate more production out of Alex Bowman after a mediocre 2025 season, Hendrick Motorsports should have four cars in The Chase this season, each with a great chance to solidify themselves as champion.
Verdict: 11 wins, 2-3 title contenders
The Floor – Jey
Hendrick Motorsports took full advantage of the now defunct playoff format in 2025. Winning their 15th driver championship with Kyle Larson after his teammate William Byron blew a tire with a handful laps to go. The No. 5 team won this title despite leading zero laps in the championship race.
Despite their successful year overall the entire organization fell off massively in the playoffs themselves. The pace that was there in the early part of the year seemed to fall off of a cliff despite bringing home the hardware.
With the “new” Chevy body for 2026, I expect the team to struggle with the new body much like they did with the body changes in the mid 2010’s. I find that the core of drivers is too good and tenured to not at bare minimum squeak out a few wins regardless, especially if we have races like the fall Kansas race last year where Chase Elliott capitalized on others’ mistakes.
Verdict: 3 wins, 3 Chase drivers
Most Likely Outcome – 7-8 wins, all drivers make the Chase
Jey and I agree that Hendrick Motorsports remains one of the most talented quartets in the garage, meaning all of their drivers can take a middling car and pedal it to a solid result.
As is the nature of things, Hendrick continues to find a way to innovate, year-in and year-out, allowing them to remain in the hunt at practically every race track. If they don’t find themselves in contention for several victories with multiple cars, it would genuinely catch us both by surprise.
(Top Photo Credit: Hendrick Motorsports on Twitter)
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