Nestled between a stretch of Appalachian Mountains, stock car racing’s smallest track awaits a hungry field of 37 drivers ready to battle for 500 laps this Sunday afternoon.
Before we dive in, let’s take a fond look back at the previous race in the Round of 8.
Last Week at Homestead…
Tyler Reddick set a blazing hot lap in Saturday’s qualifying session that put him alongside fellow title contender Kyle Larson on the front row for last Sunday’s Straight Talk Wireless 400.
Hardly a mile into the 400-mile event, ninth-place starter Justin Haley tried to shut the door on Ricky Stenhouse Jr. on the entry to turn 3 on the opening lap, sending Haley’s Chili’s Chevy spinning into the corner in front of most of the pack.
To everyone’s surprise and delight, nobody else piled into the spinning Spire machine, allowing the race to resume on lap 6 with minimal impact on the outcome of the race.
Reddick dispatched Christopher Bell early in the first run before making his first green-flag pit stop. Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott and his crew got the better of the talented 23XI by pitting a lap before Reddick in addition to the #45 team’s slower pit time.
Elliott held the lead until Larson suffered a right-rear tire failure on lap 48 that caused minimal damage to the side skirts and put the 2021 series champ in the back of the field.
With so few laps on their tires, some teams opted to stay on the track in hopes that the tires would level off with the drivers on new tires. This did not work out.
Bubba Wallace restarted third-in-line (fifth overall) on the bottom lane, split the row ahead of him entering turn 1, and blew the doors off Kyle Busch and Joey Logano tiptoeing ahead on older tires.
Wallace held the lead briefly before ceding control of the race to teammate Reddick where he spent the rest of the stage fighting off the likes of Elliott and Ryan Blaney.
At the same time, a rookie marched his way to the top-5 by the end of the first stage. Starting the day 15th, Carson Hocevar followed Ryan Blaney all the way through the field, coming home fifth in the opening stage as Reddick picked up his third-straight stage one victory and sixth of the season.
Stage 2 went ahead without interruption, running 79 straight laps under green. A slow stop for Reddick setup a three-way tussle for first on the restart between Bubba Wallace, Ryan Blaney, and Chase Elliott.
The trio fired off into turn 1 side-by-side-by-side, fighting tooth-and-nail for the top spot before Elliott’s NAPA Chevy eked by Wallace’s Ronald McDonald House Camry on lap 89.
From there, the #9 pulled away to a modest lead until contact with the wall brought Blaney’s Menards Mustang down pit road early in the second stage. Getting tires early allowed them to get close to the car and observe the damage while leaning into the #12 car’s strength over long runs.
Denny Hamlin had other plans as he stayed on the track, which allowed his #11 Mavis Tire Toyota to charge through the field on significantly fresher rubber. With six laps left in the second stage, he completed the pass on Chase Elliott to earn his sixth stage win of 2024 and his first since Indy in July.
Much of the final stage’s opening laps focused on a battle between best friends as Blaney and Elliott swapped the lead a few times before Ty Gibbs ran over Justin Haley on the entry to turn 3 on lap 187, bringing out the race’s fifth caution.
Another round of pit stops brought the familiar #5 car back into the battle as Kyle Larson rebounded from his earlier tire failure to get right back into the mix, passing Denny Hamlin for fifth with less than 70 laps to go.
Larson made quick work of Bell and Elliott before trying to track down leader Ryan Blaney. Elliott and Larson again performed the undercut on the defending series champion, but it didn’t quite pay off as Blaney re-entered the track on lap 223, driving by Larson and scooting by Elliott soon after.
Denny Hamlin employed his stage two strategy of staying out long to have a better run to the finish, pitting for fuel with 38 laps to go.
Though the #11 made up a ton of time in the first 10 laps of the next run (even rushing by Elliott and Bell in the same maneuver), Hamlin stalled out six seconds behind Blaney with Larson creeping his way into the frame.
Ahead of them all was Tyler Reddick. Left without hope after a series of less-than-stellar pit stops, Billy Scott opted for an out-of-the-box strategy that would keep the #45 car on track for as long as possible in hopes of catching a caution that would bring the field down pit road again for fresh tires.
The plan failed miserably as Reddick finally eased onto pit road with 16 laps to go, handing the lead back to Blaney with Larson all over him.
With time running out, Kyle Larson tried to sneak between the lapped car of Austin Dillon and Blaney into turn 3; the dirty air emitting from both cars got the #5 out of shape, sending the HendrickCars machine into Blaney’s right side and into a lazy spin into the infield.
Everyone on the lead lap came down pit road for tires for the final seven laps with Blaney and Hamlin exiting pit road 1-2. Well, except for one driver: Tyler Reddick.
When Reddick rejoined the track with 15 laps to go, he stormed past Blaney and Larson the lap before they made contact in turn 3, putting him back on the lead lap with just a lap-and-a-half on his tires.
Needing a Hail Mary to win, Billy Scott left his driver out there to fend for himself, making Reddick the control car for the restart with Blaney to his inside.
A weak restart from the #12 allowed Reddick to sprint ahead before Denny Hamlin went from pushing his employee to pulling away from him on the outside of turn 2 while Blaney recovered to second after passing Reddick and Elliott down the backstretch.
Blaney stalked Hamlin for four laps before finally pulling alongside the #11 after a strong run on the inside off of turn 2. The reigning series champion nearly missed out on a win at Homestead the season before, but he looked destined for a trip to Phoenix as he cleared Hamlin coming to the white flag.
The top-2’s close-quarters combat allowed Reddick’s Nasty Beast Toyota to close in, and with one lap to go, he laid down all of his chips on the table.
Reddick entered the final lap third behind Blaney and Hamlin. When his boss took the highest line, Reddick went to the apron, a lane below Blaney that gave him a stronger exit out of turn 2. The momentum carried him by the #11, leaving the race between himself and Blaney with one set of corners to go.
Blaney entered turn 3 high, but Reddick entered higher, planting the right side of his car as close to the fence as possible to squeeze out every last inch of speed left in his Toyota.
The Menards Mustang couldn’t keep up with Reddick’s surprising pace, losing out to Reddick by a car length for the win and a chance to win the title at Phoenix in two weeks.
The win gives 23XI their first shot at a Cup Series title while the defending series champion and his car owner are locked into a must-win situation next week at Martinsville.
The News
A NASCAR champion was crowned on Saturday as Ruben Garcia Jr’s fourth-place finish helped him lock up his fifth Mexico Series title after fellow contender Abraham Calderón retired from the race due to an electrical fire with less than five laps from the finish.
Garcia extended his record of most titles in the series while proving that the 28-year-old still has his best years ahead of him and perhaps resume his journey stateside at some point where he claimed two wins the ARCA Menards East Series for Rev Racing back in 2018.
Also, it is important to note that NASCAR’s first legal hurdle with 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports will be on Monday, November 4th as the teams hope to be granted an injunction that would allow their teams to be included under the 2025 charter agreement in order to still receive their cut of television revenue.
Track History & Layout
Opened as a dirt track in 1947, Martinsville Speedway is the only track to appear on every single NASCAR Cup Series schedule, from the sparse 8-race lineup of 1949 to 2024’s robust 36-race marathon.
The first event took place as the sixth event of inaugural 1949 season with eventual champion Red Byron scoring his second and final Cup Series victory, taking the checkered flag in his 1949 Oldsmobile while running three laps ahead of second place Lee Petty.
After transitioning to asphalt in 1955, NASCAR’s shortest circuit developed its definitive paperclip shape that it holds today.
Over two decades of repaves due to the overstressed asphalt forced the speedway to pave its turns with concrete on the bottom grooves in 1976 to give the track its signature look that best fortifies the track surface.
Drivers cross the start-finish, keeping close to the wall until burying their heavy machines into the ultra tight turns 1 & 2. Banked at 12°, a great Martinsville race sees drivers making a multitude of mistakes due to a lack of grip in the turns.
A trip down the 800-foot back straight funnels into turns 3 & 4 another set of low-banked turns before spitting drivers back out onto the front stretch. Then, drivers must perfect this track for 500 laps with 36 other cars packed into Martinsville’s tight confines.
Weather & Fast Facts
Though heat has come into play in the past at Martinsville this time of year, this year’s Xfinity 500 will be run in mostly temperate conditions with the weather throughout the race projected to hover around 65°F.
While the temperature may not be as hot, that won’t be due to rain thankfully as there is currently a 0% chance of rain for this afternoon.
Martinsville is notorious for chaotic moments that shake up the final results. I tracked the averages of the last 10 fall races to give a glimpse into how a typical Martinsville race in the Playoffs looks: 11 cautions for 77 caution laps, 15 lead changes, 1,537 green-flag passes (3.6 per lap), and the final caution falling around lap 450.
Today’s Xfinity 500 will be broadcast on NBC starting at 2pm Eastern time with Leigh Diffey, Steve Letarte, and Jeff Burton in the booth for 500 laps of short-track action.
Those 500 laps will be divided into three stages, ending on the following laps: 130-260-500. Despite not having an Overtime finish since 2021, the threat of Overtime always lurks at short tracks where mechanical failures can happen at a moment’s notice.
The Odds
Three current owners of Grandfather clocks enter Sunday’s race near the top of the betting favorites with the first being Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott (+450). Sitting 43 points below the Playoff cutline to make it to Phoenix, the 2020 champion finds himself in a must-win situation.
The Dawsonville native wiped away a massive points deficit in that season when he dominated at Martinsville to take home his first (and only) Grandfather clock. With 1,104 laps led around the Paperclip, I suspect Elliott will be in contention for the win tomorrow.
William Byron (+650) is up next on the list, and he is the most recent winner at Martinsville. Crew chief Rudy Fugle elected to perform an undercut on the last round of green-flag pit stops, allowing Byron to erase a 2.5-second gap to take the lead from Elliott after entering the pits in fourth.
Byron took punishment in last fall’s event when his cooling pump went out early on, baking the driver in his car for laps on end. He was able to grit out a strong finish to get to Phoenix last year, so he intends to send a message by contending for the win on Sunday.
Last we have Denny Hamlin (+750). The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran has gone 18 consecutive races without winning at his hometown facility after winning in four of his first 12 starts.
Though he’ll have to battle back from issues in practice, Hamlin knows how to run 500 laps at Martinsville better than anyone else in the field, so if you’re making a wager based on historical data, Hamlin is the guy to go with on Sunday.
As for non-Playoff drivers, look out for Martin Truex Jr. (+450). The 2017 champion seeks a win in his swan-song campaign after going winless since last summer. Coming to a track affectionately nicknamed “Martin’s-ville” should ease any anxieties the New Jersey native may have and allow him to log his final JGR victory.
Writer’s Pick
I picked Blaney last week at Homestead. Yeah, bitter defeat there, but we move on.
I’m sticking with Blaney for Martinsville.
The reigning series champion holds a strong record at the Paperclip, holding an astounding 8.8 average finish over 17 starts. Last fall, Blaney took control of last year’s Xfinity 500, pacing the field for 145 of 500 laps on his way to victory, posing with his first Ridgeway Grandfather Clock.
Since joining Team Penske in 2018, Blaney finished worse than fifth just four times over 13 starts. While it’s entirely possible that he doesn’t win, it’s almost certain that the champ will be in the mix to defend his crown.
(Top Photo Credit: Chuck Burton/AP Photo)
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