After escaping Sin City, the stars of the NASCAR Cup Series ride onto the shores of South Beach to take on the variable high banks of Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Before we talk about the 34th race of 2024, let’s take a look back at race 33.
Last Week at Las Vegas…
The Toyota tandem of Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick led the field to green for 267 laps over 400 miles for the seventh annual South Point 400.
Early in the race, the broadcast focused on two champions making their way through the field after suboptimal qualifying runs, Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney.
Elliott lined up 18th and fell back early before climbing his way near the top-10 while Blaney’s practice crash put him in the back for the start of the race. The defending champion charged to the top-20 with his backup car and looked to be making up ground on the cars ahead when the first caution flew.
With 17 to go in the first stage, Austin Dillon threw a late block on Daniel Hemric entering turn 3 that resulted in Hemric tapping the #3 car’s bumper and sent him into the outside wall, ending Dillon’s day.
This caution brought much of the field down pit road with the top-6 cars taking just right-side tires for the 10-lap sprint for points. Ultimately, four tires were better than two as Reddick ripped through the slower traffic to earn his fifth stage win of the season.
That would be as good as it would get for Reddick.
Two laps into the next run, chaos erupted at the front of the pack when Christopher Bell dove to the bottom of Martin Truex Jr. and Chase Elliott in turn 3. Bell completed the pass halfway through the corner and merged in front of Truex, taking grip away from his teammate.
Truex eased up the track into Elliott, which normally wouldn’t be an issue, but Reddick just jumped to the outside of Elliott, resulting in both cars hitting the wall.
Reddick’s car slid down the track and collected Brad Keselowski before sliding into the infield where a lift from the quarter-mile track popped the #45 car into the air, barrel-rolling once before landing back on its wheels.
In the aftermath, Keselowski’s car slid back up into traffic, causing damage to both Austin Cindric and Blaney. The wreck put Reddick, Cindric, and Keselowski out of the race and removed Blaney and Elliott from contention.
Much of the race after that was tame with stage 2 going 70 laps without seeing the yellow before Bell claimed his 11th stage win of 2024.
A small subplot centering on Kyle Larson emerged in the second stage as the two-time defending winner at the track suffered two nightmare pit stops as the communication broke down in the pits when fastening the tires to the car. The incident put the #5 team two laps down.
After the second stage ended, 21 laps passed, most of them focused on the battle for the free pass between Larson and Ty Gibbs, who found himself a lap behind after a stage 2 speeding penalty.
The battle got the best of Gibbs as he lost it all on his own behind Larson on lap 193, putting the 2021 champion back on the lead lap.
From there, it was a gamble to make it on fuel, so most teams opted to make an additional stop to break up the final run to the finish.
Of the cars that gambled, two were still in the Playoffs: Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin. Hamlin suffered a number of pit road miscues that put him behind the 8-ball entering stage 3, so making it to the end on fuel was likely their only route to a good finish.
Logano racked up points in stages one and two but never flashed the race-winning speed that Bell and Byron did up front, so staying out and coasting behind Daniel Suárez seemed to be his best option.
Bell pitted with a little over 30 laps to go and marched his way through the field in hopes of punching his ticket to Phoenix quicker than anyone else. After all, he did have the fastest car.
With the laps winding down, a familiar face appeared at the front of the field: Ryan Blaney.
Several laps down after the stage 2 wreck, Blaney’s car still had speed in it, and reminiscent of Bubba Wallace pushing Tyler Reddick in the spring, he lined up behind teammate Logano and pushed him down the straights.
This boost allowed the Penske cars to eat into Suárez’s gap, and with five laps to go, Logano wheeled around the #99 and took the lead with Bell in hot pursuit.
Bell blew by Suárez at the start of the final lap, needing to make up a second over a mile-and-a-half track in one circuit. Unfortunately for the Oklahoma native, it wouldn’t be enough, falling short to Logano by less than a half-second.
Logano claimed his third win of 2024. After the controversy the previous week involving Alex Bowman’s disqualification that put him back into the Playoffs, Logano capitalized on the opportunity, giving the two-time Cup champ a shot at a third title while Christopher Bell fumed on the radio.
Track History & Layout
When Homestead was initially conceived by race promoter Ralph Sanchez, it resembled Indianapolis Motor Speedway with four equally-banked 6° turns. After the poor corner angles led to the demise of John Nemechek in the spring of 1997, the track was reconfigured into a flat 1.5-mile oval.
It was the second layout that finally drew in the NASCAR Cup Series in 1999 where Tony Stewart claimed his third victory of his rookie season. Stewart would go on to take the wins record at the track with three, a record he shares with active driver Denny Hamlin.
With four Cup races in the books, new track owners ISC looked to make a more radial renovation than 1997 by adding variable banking to the track in the turns to promote multi-groove racing that the flatter layout was unable to provide.
From 2002 through 2019, Homestead-Miami Speedway hosted the season finale race, but since then, it has bounced around the schedule before ending up as the second race in the Round of 8. Next season, it’ll move back up to the top of the schedule as it’ll be the sixth race of 2025.
A lap around Homestead is quite simple as it’s a true oval. Both turns 1 & 2 feature banking that ramps up from 18° down by the apron to 20° by the wall. The track’s 55-foot width allows drivers to take a number of grooves around the turns and race side-by-side down the straights.
Weather & Fast Facts
No precipitation in the forecast means we are going to finish these 400 miles today under partly cloudy skies with a high of 81°F around the time the green flag falls.
As for an average Homestead race, it looks something like this: 6 cautions for 31 caution laps, 18 lead changes, 3,305 green-flag passes (14 per lap), and a lap of final caution occurring on lap 228 or 40 laps to go.
Today’s Straight Talk Wireless 400 airs on NBC today starting 2:30pm Eastern time. The 400-mile event will run to a scheduled distance of 267 laps split among three stages that end on laps 80-165-267 unless Overtime occurs, something that is statistically unlikely as Overtime has only descended upon Miami once in 2016.
The Odds
None other than Kyle Larson (+285) leads off the betting favorites, and why wouldn’t he? The 2021 champion piloted a new line around Homestead that powered him to victory in 2022, a feat he hopes to repeat today.
In just six starts in Miami with stage racing, the Californian owns six stage victories, giving him a nearly 40-point advantage over the next closest driver in stage points earned. With a ticket to Phoenix on the line, expect Larson and crew chief Cliff Daniels to be in the mix when the laps wind down.
Behind Larson is Tyler Reddick (+450). The 23XI driver knows how to get it done in South Beach, claiming back-to-back Xfinity titles at Homestead in 2018 and 2019. He’s taken this proficiency to the next level where he’s finished in the top-5 three times in just four starts.
Sponsored and contracted by His Airness, Reddick decided to follow Michael’s lead and get air the past few weeks, both times being to his detriment. As long as Reddick doesn’t win the first stage for the third straight week, he might just survive a race with all four tires on the ground and get a much-needed victory.
Last year’s Homestead victor Christopher Bell (+450) rolls off third on the grid today and in the list of betting favorites. The Norman, Oklahoma native’s dirt-racing background paid dividends last season after years of lackluster results at a track most thought would come naturally to him.
Armed with the brutal defeat last week at the hands of Joey Logano, Bell rolls into Miami the most comfortable of anyone in the points, holding a 42-point advantage over the cutline. Being the best driver over the Playoffs used to mean more, so Bell will need to keep digging today in order to make it to the desert.
My two picks outside of the Playoffs are two Toyotas: Martin Truex Jr. (+1400) and Bubba Wallace (+4000). Truex led 78 laps on his way to his first and only Cup title in 2017, and that win remains his lone Miami triumph. Decked out with a nostalgic paint scheme, perhaps MTJ can end back up in victory lane.
Despite a top-10 in last year’s race, Wallace sits at 40-1 odds to win today. The 23XI driver performs well at tracks like Homestead where tire management comes at a premium, even winning a Truck race here in 2014. I suspect Bubba will run well for the Ronald McDonald House today under the palm trees.
Writer’s Pick
Last week’s writer’s pick was Kyle Busch. He finished 13th.
This week’s writer’s pick is none other than Ryan Blaney (+1000). Blaney’s natural talent takes over at Homestead where he holds two top-5s in his nine starts at the track, including an impressive drive last year that ended with a runner-up result.
Slight damage from brushing the wall last week to avoid Brad Keselowski ruined his day, but at least the reigning champ was able to help his teammate continue his pursuit for a title.
In need of a major points day or a win, I expect YRB’s killer instinct to be in full force in Miami today, leading to a 13th career victory and another trip to Phoenix booked a week early.
(Top Photo Credit: James Gilbert/Getty Images)
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