Eight down, eight to go.
With just four more races remaining in the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season, eight drivers held serve through the first six Playoff races and stand tall as the lingering challengers for the Bill France Cup.
Their names: Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, and Chase Elliott.
Before we dive into what awaits them, let’s travel down memory lane to the series’ last stop in the Queen City.
Last Week at Charlotte…
Three-time Australian Supercars champion Shane van Gisbergen claimed his first career pole at the Charlotte Roval, leading the field to green for last Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400.
Stage 1 produced controversy when Bubba Wallace was ordered to serve a pass-through penalty for cutting the frontstretch chicane. Wallace abdicated his ninth spot and coasted onto pit road to serve his penalty while social media outcry emerged as footage of William Byron doing the same thing began to circulate.
Byron never saw the black flag.
Van Gisbergen dominated the first stage, leading until he dove onto pit road on lap 22 which handed the lead to Tyler Reddick. Entering the day just +14 on the cutline, the regular season champ took the stage 1 win with Joey Logano and Chase Elliott filling out the podium.
Stage 2 is where the chaos really kicked into overdrive.
Just six laps into the second stage, Turn 7 claimed its first victims. Alex Bowman and Austin Dillon made contact on lap 31, sending the #3 car spinning onto the apex of the hairpin corner.
The placement of Dillon’s car blocked several lanes on the track, creating a stack-up that led to Tyler Reddick’s rear end flying into the air and into the side of his car owner, Denny Hamlin’s car.
Reddick rode around for a few laps with his wounded Monster Energy Toyota before Chase Briscoe’s Goodyear tire carcass ended up laying flat on the racing surface to bring out the third caution.
Seemingly endless repairs on the #45 car ensued, taking a whooping eight pit stops through the course of the day to get the car somewhat back into alignment. Most of Hamlin’s damage ended up being cosmetic, not affecting his handling as much as initially feared.
Thirteen more laps clicked off before the end of stage 2 with Kyle Larson retaining the lead on the restart and pulling away before electing to pit with three to go, handing the lead to AJ Allmendinger. The defending race winner snatched the second stage away from Logano and Elliott in second and third respectively.
After fighting furiously with Joey Logano and Bubba Wallace toward the end of stage 2, Daniel Suárez brought his #99 Choice Rewards Camaro down pit road during the stage yellow to inspect his fading brakes that ultimately ruined his day and his Playoff hopes, dropping him to 30th at the finish.
When the green flag flew for the final stage, AJ Allmendinger took the lead and tried his best to run away from the cars that pitted before stage 2 ended. Heading that brigade on fresh rubber was Kyle Larson, and after a short battle, he wrestled the lead from the defending race winner in turn 7 on lap 67 and set sail.
Once all of the lead-lap cars finished up their last green-flag stops, Austin Dillon — one of the last cars to pit — lost a tire when he rejoined the circuit, bringing out the race’s fifth and final caution on lap 82.
Anticipating more carnage, some of the top-10 elected to take tires for the final stint, including Kaulig teammates van Gisbergen and Allmendinger. Joining them in the back of the field was Tyler Reddick’s battered Monster Camry, fresh off of its eighth pit stop and needing 13 more spots to secure a spot in the Round of 8.
Dinger and SVG rolled through the field, running out of time to finish in sixth and seventh. Reddick ended up not far behind, picking cars off one at a time over the course of the final 26 laps.
After restarting 26th, Reddick gained 15 spots, four more than necessary after Logano lost positions to the Kaulig tandem. The regular season champion delivered one of the best drives of his career when he nearly threw his season away earlier in the day.
Meanwhile, Larson built up a two-second lead over Christopher Bell and extended his series lead by scooping up his sixth victory of 2024 and his second career win at the Roval.
Initially, Alex Bowman advanced to the Round of 8 over Logano, but due to his car not meeting minimum weight during post-race inspection, the #48 team was disqualified and stripped of all points earned during the race, eliminating the Hendrick Motorsports outfit from the postseason.
Following Kyle Larson’s Double controversy in the spring, the owners’ championship points got staggered slightly to compensate for Justin Allgaier’s performance in Larson’s stead at the World 600, meaning the #5 team claimed the regular-season owners’ title.
This put Tyler Reddick in a compromising position. His #45 team garnered less points at the conclusion of the regular season, meaning the 23XI outfit wouldn’t be represented in the Round of 8 for the owners’ title. With Bowman’s disqualification, Reddick and Logano end up being the biggest beneficiaries.
Track History & Layout
Las Vegas Motor Speedway was not the first race track constructed for the Sin City.
Stardust International Raceway opened in 1965 as a 3-mile road course in nearby Spring Valley to attract visitors to the track’s namesake, the Stardust Hotel. After six years of operation, the hotel and track were bought out with the track demolished.
The City of Las Vegas approved plans for local short track owner Curly Price to build a new short track north of the strip, resulting in a short road course known as the Las Vegas Speedrome.
Years of mismanagement left the track in disrepair until the mid-80s when drag racer Alex Rodriguez (not to be confused with the baseball great) helped repair the track and build a .375-mile short track on the property known as “The Bullring”.
Rodriguez’s care for the facility didn’t go unnoticed as a group of local hotel heavyweights bought the property with the intent of developing a 1.5-mile superspeedway on the grounds of the Speedrome.
Six years later, the relatively-flat intermediate circuit was complete and ready to host racing with the Indy Racing League, the American Le Mans Series, and the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series making stops during the track’s debut year.
After adding a date for the NASCAR Busch Series for 1997, the track earned its first major victory by securing a date for the Winston Cup Series where Mark Martin took the inaugural victory.
1998 became a year of victories for the new track as Speedway Motorsports (SMI) purchased the track and its surrounding area, a track that is still in their possession today.
In 2006, SMI announced plans to revitalize the track by raising its modest 12 degrees of banking up to a staggering 20 degrees, drawing the ire of several drivers at the time and inevitably making it inhospitable for open-wheel racing.
Seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson snagged three wins in a row at Vegas with two coming on the low banking in 2005 and 2006 before continuing his streak on the newly-reconfigured high banks in 2007. Johnson took the all-time wins record with a fourth win in the spring of 2010, a record he still holds today.
Despite that long-standing record, two active champions — Kyle Larson and Joey Logano — hold three wins apiece in Sin City and enter the Round of 8 knowing a win guarantees them a spot in the Phoenix title race.
Enough about history, though; let’s take to the track.
With a whooping 17 years and 24 Cup Series races under its belt, Las Vegas Motor Speedway’s track surface has aged rather well, generating tire wear over the course of the run. Drivers can’t push their tires too hard over a long run unless they intend to fall back as savvier competitors that saved their equipment blow by.
So, while speeds reach the high 180s and into the low 190s down the straights, the cars can’t keep up that speed for 50+ laps. If the race ends in a long run, look for a more seasoned contender to rise to the occasion.
Cars round the trioval and cross the start-finish line to begin their laps, holding the wheel straight briefly before rolling into the 20 degree turns 1 & 2.
With 50 feet of available space between the outside wall and the apron, these turns offer drivers a myriad of options for how to approach and exit, allowing drivers with ill-handling cars to get the most speed possible out of them.
The exit of turn 2 leaks out to the 1,572-foot backstretch where the lines converge, letting drivers duke it out side-by-side and at times even three-wide before diving into turns 3 & 4.
Banked the same as turns 1 & 2, the outside line of this corner owns a bit of an advantage on this end of the track as the exit of turn 4 is straighter than turn 2, giving drivers an even stronger run down the long, curved front straight.
Because of the banking, drivers can fan out among the various grooves and take whatever line they need to go as fast as possible before rounding turn 4 and ending up back on the frontstretch.
Like Kansas before it, drivers often shortcut the trioval by taking their car down to the flat apron, cutting as close to the grass as possible without slowing the car down in an attempt to shrink their lap times.
Weather & Fast Facts
Another clear and sunny weekend appears to be upon us as the analysts project temperatures in the mid-high 70s on race day with not a drop of moisture in the forecast.
As for the typical Vegas fall race, it looks something like this: 7 cautions for 36 caution laps, 21 lead changes, 3,156 green-flag passes (13.7 per lap), and an average lap of final caution coming on lap 224 or 44 laps to go.
Two of the six fall races at Las Vegas endured an Overtime finish (2018 and 2020), and while both NextGen fall races haven’t been marred with late yellows, they’ve still managed to produce great battles coming to the finish.
Sunday’s South Point 400 will be broadcast on NBC at 2:30pm Eastern time and last for 267 laps spread out over three stages ending on laps 80-165-267.
The average 400-miler at Vegas lasts about three hours from start to finish, so if you have any plans on Sunday, make sure to plan them for after 6pm Eastern.
The Odds
Defending winner of this event Kyle Larson (+300) leads off the betting favorites, and why wouldn’t he? The 2021 champion won last week’s race at the Roval, and to add insult to injury for the competition, Larson owns the last two victories to Sin City.
His 8.7 average finish is tops among the remaining Playoff field while also pacing the field in laps led, Playoff Points, and stage wins earned at LVMS. If anyone is going to challenge for the win on Sunday, they will undoubtedly have to go through the #5 team to get there.
Lining up behind Larson on the oddsmakers’ list is teammate and 2023 spring winner William Byron (+750). Byron’s stale summer stretch gave some onlookers little confidence in the #24 bunch, but as soon as the Playoffs kicked off in Atlanta, Byron and company have been flexing their muscles.
Two outlier finishes at Watkins Glen and Bristol failed to deter the Axalta team as they re-established themselves as contenders last round, finishing no worse than third in the last three races. With a ticket to Phoenix on the line, look for Byron to shake things up to punch his ticket as early as possible.
Next in line is Christopher Bell (+800). The fourth-year JGR driver has an interesting history with Las Vegas; his two poles in the NextGen era show he has speed while two finishes below 30th during the same stretch display the #20 team’s inconsistencies.
Bell came a lap away from taking the win away from a dominant Larson, but he’ll have 267 laps (maybe more) on Sunday to get a win in the Sin City of his own. His 19.1 average finish at LVMS leaves much to be desired; however, if anyone can bounce back from certain defeat, it’s Bell, one of the most clutch drivers in the field.
As for non-Playoff drivers, my eyes are on Martin Truex Jr. (+1400) and Ross Chastain (+1600). Truex’s season inches closer and closer to being over, putting a stamp on a storied career centered on perseverance. Truex could further that trend by weathering the pain of the last 32 weeks by notching an unexpected triumph.
Chastain dueled with Truex at Kansas in the late stages with the watermelon farmer coming out on top. Heading to the track that put him on the map in the Xfinity Series, I suspect Chastain wants to spread some more watermelon seeds, and there’s no better place to put down roots than victory lane.
Writer’s Pick
Last week’s writer’s pick was AJ Allmendinger. After he pitted out of the top-5 in stage 3, he was unable to get all the way back to the front again, finishing a solid sixth.
Though I didn’t include him in my non-Playoff drivers to watch, my pick is a hometown favorite: Kyle Busch.
A two-time Cup champion, Kyle Busch (+1400) enters the weekend on a prolific losing streak that’s seen the legendary driver come up short as recently as Daytona and Darlington to drivers getting their first and second career wins, respectively.
This 53-race winless streak dominated headlines as the postseason approached but have since fizzled out, just in time for the 63-time Cup winner to get a much-needed triumph at his hometown track.
While it won’t get RCR into the Playoffs with all the financial advantages that come with that, Busch has had success at LVMS in recent years, even finishing on the podium in last year’s South Point 400.
Rather than another bronze or silver, I expect Rowdy to be all in for the gold on Sunday.
(Top Photo Credit: Jeff Speer/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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