With a weekend at Talladega in the books, the remaining title contenders make their way to the winding course and high banks of the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval.
Before we dive into the Roval, let’s take a look back at last week’s YellaWood 500.
Last Week at Talladega…
Michael McDowell earned his series-leading sixth pole of 2024 that allowed him to lead the field to green, a position he held firm until the race’s first caution for Daniel Suárez’s collision with BJ McLeod.
The title-contending Suárez served a drive-through penalty on the first lap that put him out of the lead draft. When the field finally caught him on lap 12, they avoided the #99 like the plague, splitting him four-wide on the backstretch.
Not only was Suárez a lap down, he ran the risk of losing the lead draft again before the end of the stage, so in a desperate move, the Trackhouse driver attempted to blend into the outside line in front of McLeod.
With nowhere to go, McLeod ran into the back of Suárez, sending the Mexican driver into the outside wall before careening towards the infield. It could’ve been worse for the #99 team, but the crash put them two laps down, a deficit from which they were unable to rebound.
After that, there were no major issues or action on track until the end of the second stage. Most of the first and second stages saw seemingly-impressive four-wide action through the pack, but it was artificially produced as the field was saving fuel, going half-throttle at times around the track renowned for high-speed pack racing.
However, drivers can only get away with this kind of racing for so long before something gives, and this time, it was Alex Bowman.
Coming through the trioval to complete stage 2, Bowman’s Chevy lined up poorly with the bumper of the car ahead, sending Ryan Blaney into the outside wall and taking Ross Chastain with him. The lone silver lining at the time was both wounded cars receiving stage points before ultimately bowing out of the race.
When the racing returned, it was more of the same with fuel strategy slowing down the tempo of the racing until green-flag pit stops cycled through with about 15 laps to go.
This led to two different lines — one controlled by Fords with Austin Cindric at the head and the other controlled by Chevys with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. leading the way.
But, the Big One is inevitable.
With just five laps to go, Brad Keselowski received a big shove from two cars behind him and carried it through the back bumper of Cindric, setting off the biggest crash in NASCAR’s modern era.
In all, 28 cars found damage in the collision, meaning nearly 74% of the cars running on the track got swept into this gargantuan pileup.
Of the cars remaining were the wounded Stenhouse machine and Keselowski’s beat up Build Submarines Ford. When the race finally got back going, the two settled the race between themselves in Overtime as cars from the second row on back were unable to generate any momentum to pass the cars ahead of them.
Keselowski deferred an opportunity to block Stenhouse when he cleared the 37-year-old on the entry to turn 3 on the final lap, allowing the Mississippian to jump back to his outside and continue their duel.
Coming to the line, Stenhouse owned the advantage on the top before his pusher, William Byron, left him right before the finish line to pursue the win himself.
What came of that was a three-wide finish that saw Stenhouse emerge victorious, scoring his fourth career Cup Series victory by .006-of-a-second over Keselowski in second while Byron took home third.
This means that there are no drivers secured into the Round of 8 based on winning a race.
Track History & Layout
Since the Roval’s incorporation in 2018, the track has held down a cutoff race, meaning multiple moments have been made at this unique track layout.
One notable instance included Chase Elliott’s comeback in the 2019 event where he binned it into the tire barriers at the Tums Heartburn Turn before driving all the way through the field in stage 3 to claim the most impressive victory of his career to-date.
Elliott holds the wins record at this course after repeating in 2020, meaning five different drivers have triumphed over the Charlotte Roval.
Drivers exit the final chicane and arrive at the start-finish line to begin their laps before diving into the hard-braking zone of turn 1. This left-hander rolls downhill, making its tight apex that much more treacherous.
After navigating turn 1, drivers enter the infield, which went through a significant overhaul (more on that shortly.) A short drag ends in another left-hand turn before quickly switching back for a pair of right-handers.
Drivers will then motor down a short straight before a kink to the right starts the new section of the course. Cars cascade down the hill into the sweeping right of turn 6 until they empty out into the hairpin of turn 7.
Turn 7’s corner exit blends back onto the oval portion of the track as cars rip around the banking of oval turns 1 & 2 before reaching the backstretch. Instead of rolling through the backstretch all the way through, NASCAR instituted a chicane to slow down cars before entering Oval turn 3.
The braking zone for this chicane starts almost as soon as the drivers reach the backstretch, mashing their pedals down before the hard left that bleeds into an even harder right-hander. Cars then rocket back onto the banking to take on Oval turns 3 & 4.
Instead of running the dogleg back to the start-finish line, drivers must navigate a renovated chicane. Made tighter for some reason, cars must rapidly decelerate before whipping to the right, then the left to complete their lap.
Weather & Fast Facts
By the time the green flag flies for the first time today at 2:38pm Eastern time, the Sun will be high in the sky with not a drop of rain in sight, simmering at a relatively-comfortable 79°F.
As for the average Roval race, that looks something like this: 8 cautions for 17 caution laps, 12 lead changes, 2,963 green-flag passes (or 32.2 per lap), and an average lap of final caution falling around lap 102 or 8 laps to go.
While being well-known for its late-race chaos, the Roval has only seen one Overtime finish in its history when it went to double OT to decide the 2022 edition that was won by Christopher Bell.
Today’s race airs on NBC today with coverage starting at 2pm Eastern time. The Bank of America ROVAL 400 will run to the scheduled distance of 109 laps (Overtime pending) with stage breaks on laps 25-50-109.
The Odds
Shane van Gisbergen (+285) planted his car at the top of the pylon for today’s race and at the top of the oddsmakers’ list at DraftKings. The Kiwi has never made a Cup start at the Roval, so any bet made in his name is based solely on reputation and what you saw out of him in a radically different Xfinity car yesterday.
Kyle Larson (+700) enters today’s race a comfortable 52 points above the Playoff cutline, meaning that a few stage points should shield him from further calamity.
Hot off of a top-5 on a superspeedway (!!), the 2021 champion could land a spot in the Round of 8 with an exclamation point by winning today’s race, joining teammate Chase Elliott as the only two-time winners at the Roval.
Tyler Reddick (+700) holds down the third spot on the betting favorites list, and he’s got one of the most impressive records here. Owning a 7th-place average finish is no small feat at any track, but that’s what Reddick has done in his four previous Roval attempts.
The regular season champion sits just 14 points above the cutline going into today, but he’ll be starting beside SVG on the front row. If Reddick can scrounge up some stage points and keep his nose clean, the #45 team should be in contention for the win and the Round of 8.
As for the two non-Playoff picks, I’m going with AJ Allmendinger (+700) and Kyle Busch (+1600). “Dinger” has the most impressive record of anyone at the Charlotte Roval, claiming four consecutive wins at the facility and sweeping last year’s Xfinity and Cup races. Look for his familiar #16 Chevy to contend for a win today from the third starting spot.
Busch’s season has baffled many, but nothing would be more baffling than the two-time series champion conquering the Roval for his first win of 2024. The RCR driver rolls off 11th today, and with three top-10s in his last three Roval starts, it appears he’s starting to finally figure out this confounding course.
Writer’s Pick
I picked Ryan Blaney last weekend, and he got wrecked at the end of stage 2. Lovely.
This week, I won’t be going for the trifecta with the #12 team. Instead, I’m hitching my wagon to AJ Allmendinger.
His record here is second to none, and while he didn’t get the win yesterday, it isn’t like he lost the race to a guy that hasn’t also won there before in Sam Mayer, last year’s Xfinity Series winner at the Roval.
Granted, AJ will be duking it out with Playoff drivers that are antsy to score points and lock themselves into the next round, but that’s old hat for him here.
The pressure doesn’t seem to get to the 42-year-old racer from Los Gatos, California, so he’s my pick to get a sixth victory on the Roval.
(Top Photo Credit: Chris Owens/HHP)
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