Last Week in Atlanta…
The Quaker State 400 failed to produce the same calamity that the spring race brought, but it wasn’t lacking in impactful moments.
Much of the first stage was spent making sure the field didn’t wad themselves up in major pileup, but as the stage eased into its conclusion, a blue and white domino fell.
Kyle Larson’s HendrickCars Chevy broke loose in turn 1, sending his car hard into the outside wall and ending his top-5 run prematurely. Adding to the junkyard was Chase Briscoe flying into Larson’s wounded Camaro and ending his day, putting the SHR driver in danger of missing out on the Round of 12.
Ryan Blaney won the first stage, and his teammate Austin Cindric inherited the lead early in stage 2, a spot he would hold for practically the entire stage. Cindric cruised to a stage victory in an uneventful stage 2.
When stage 3 kicked off on lap 167, all hell broke loose.
It all started when John Hunter Nemechek’s machine wrecked on backstretch on lap 176, and a short 30 laps later, multiple dominoes fell when Chris Buescher broke traction in turn 2, colliding with Ryan Blaney and collecting Martin Truex Jr.
Damage from the accident forced Truex out of the race, but Blaney and Buescher were able to continue with wounded rides. The field — likely spooked by the accident — calmed down for the rest of the race, staying caution-free until 10 laps to go when…a Walmart banner fell onto the race track in what was quite possibly the stupidest caution of the season.
Ty Gibbs and Daniel Suárez led the field to green with five to go, and that run lasted a few moments before Harrison Burton and Noah Gragson brought out a caution coming to the white flag, sending the race into NASCAR Overtime.
To the surprise of many, the field managed to make it to the white flag on the first Overtime attempt, setting up a duel between Suárez and Joey Logano.
Logano had the aid of Blaney’s hot rod shoving him ahead while Suárez had his teammate Ross Chastain in-tow on the top. Daniel tried to choose the right lane, but Chase Elliott delivered a bad shove to the back of the #1 car, pushing Chastain into the fence.
The contact effectively ended the race, triggering a multi-car crash caused by Ricky Stenhouse’s inability to find the brake pedal. Logano snuck by for his second victory of the season and locked the #22 Mustang into the Round of 12.
Track History & Layout
NASCAR made their first trip to New England in 1957 when Buck Baker came home with the win in his Chevy, beating 19 other drivers on a reversed version of the course that changed the turns from right-handers to left-handers.
That one date was followed by two races in 1964 and 1965 before a 21-year absence of stock-car racing at WGI ensued.
When the series returned in 1986, Tim Richmond established Hendrick Motorsports as a force at the fast, twisty circuit. Since then, Hendrick Motorsports owns 11 wins at the track, but the all-time NASCAR wins leader is Tony Stewart with 5.
Drivers whip around the final right-hand turn and throttle uphill toward the finish line. A bit further down the straight, the cars roll downhill into the daunting turn 1 that’s ended the days of many great drivers in the past.
Luckily for some, the runoff past turn 1 is now paved, making it to where cars can fan out as far as the outside wall to gain as much as speed as possible on corner exit.
Then, the field encounter the Esses. Running uphill, cars must swing right then left and right once more to get to the backstretch, maintaining as much speed as possible to get a run on cars ahead of them heading into the Bus Stop.
The Bus Stop was implemented after the death of JD McDuffie in 1991 to slow the cars down on the backstretch. Now, drivers have another hard-braking zone that can help them snag more positions before hastily swinging their hefty machines around these tight corners.
Drivers then enter the Carousel where the long 180° corner is mildly banked, allowing drivers to carry more speed on the track’s final straight. From there, drivers dive into the left-hander of turn 6 before going through turn 7 one last time to complete the lap.
Weather & Fast Facts
Unlike years past, rain looks to not be a threat today in upstate New York as today’s race only sees a 20% chance of precipitation, and none of that precipitation is due to fall until after the race is supposed to be complete.
Fans headed to the track are in for a beautiful day of racing with the temperature at the start of the race hovering around 80°F where it’ll stay for much of the event.
An average race at Watkins Glen looks like this: 4 cautions for 12 caution laps, 8 lead changes, 1,747 green-flag passes (22.4 per lap), and the last caution takes place around 26 laps to go or lap 65.
Today’s race begins at 3pm Eastern Time on USA Network and is due to run for 90 laps split into three stages. The stages end at the following laps: 20-40-90.
The average race takes two hours and 16 minutes to complete, so for NASCAR standards, this is projected to be a short one! Something that has helped these WGI races end earlier is the lack of Overtime finishes as the track hasn’t had one since before 2014.
The Odds
Kyle Larson (+600) rolls into the Glen in need of a good run. After the 2021 champion’s surprise exit from the Atlanta Playoff opener, the #5 team finds themselves just 15 points above the cutline.
Thankfully for Cliff Daniels and company, the rest of the first round plays right into their hands as they’ve won at both WGI and Bristol. Prior to last year’s less-than-stellar showing, Larson won back-to-back races in upstate New York, and in need of momentum, I suspect the HendrickCars Camaro heads to the front.
Last year’s winner William Byron (+1000) looks to replicate his teammate’s form and win two races in a row at the Glen. Byron and the #24 team have struggled their way into the postseason since getting three victories in the first eight races.
Putting their bad luck and poor performance in the review is a Hendrick Motorsports’ staple, however. Byron collected solid stage points and a decent top-10 finish in a race that lacked the normal attrition of the current Atlanta layout. Returning to a track that brought them success last season should help correct the #24 team’s form heading into the season’s homestretch.
Tyler Reddick (+750) continues his march toward a title this weekend where he sits tied with Byron in points. A comfortable points position fails to convince this team that they need to take it easy today. Considering they’re heading to a road course, this has to make the entire 23XI organization excited that they’ll make it into the Round of 12 today.
In his three previous starts at the Glen, the Corning, CA native claimed three top-10s, including an eighth-place run last summer. Knowing that a great result today could mean the difference between going to Bristol with anxiety or not, the #45 crew will look to seal their fate this afternoon rather than next week.
Of the non-Playoff drivers, my eyes are on Ross Chastain (+800) and AJ Allmendinger (+1400). Chastain notched his first pole for sponsor Busch this weekend, and I have no doubt that having SVG and Suárez to learn from has elevated his road course acumen.
Allmendinger made his mark on stock car racing 10 short years ago when he snatched his first Cup Series victory here after a battle with Marcos Ambrose. Now that the Cup field is packed to the brim with road-racing talent, Dinger’s path to victory will be much more arduous than years past, but for him, it’ll make the victory that much sweeter.
Writer’s Pick
Last week’s almanac entry featured Daniel Suárez as the writer’s pick, and he missed out on an Atlanta sweep by one spot.
Entering this weekend, I struggled with making a selection, but I’m going to go with my gut and say Shane van Gisbergen claims his second career Cup victory at Watkins Glen.
Oftentimes, I fill this section with past performances at a track that give me confidence in the driver; I simply don’t have that benefit this weekend. The only other historical basis we have to go off of is Trackhouse fielded a third car here for Kimi Raikkonen in 2022, so they know how to prepare a fast third car at the Glen.
The Kiwi came up a few spots short of glory in yesterday’s Xfinity race. Having familiarized himself with the track, I expect his road course wizardry to carry him to victory, even if he has to go through his two future Trackhouse teammates to get there.
(Top Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images)
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