After 26 action-packed, drama-filled races across 14 states, NASCAR whittled its star-studded field down to 16 contenders for the final 10 events to determine the Cup Series champion.
The 2024 season gave the fans moments to remember and some others to forget, but it also provoked questions from them that Jey and I will attempt to tackle.
Without any further ado, let’s get into our burning questions!
Do you think any of the drivers that recently qualified for the Playoffs can carry their momentum for a deep postseason run?
Jey: If anyone that “lucked” into the Playoffs is going to make a deep run it’s going to be Briscoe and the #14 team. Stewart-Haas Racing will pool all the resources they can muster into that Ford Mustang Dark Horse to try to end the team’s tenure as it currently exists on as high of a note as possible.
This team has shown that they can pull a run out of thin air when they came 10 laps short of winning at Martinsville to make the Championship Four in 2022.
Tanner: So, there are 7 new drivers entering the postseason. Let’s briefly list them: Ty Gibbs, Harrison Burton, Chase Briscoe, Alex Bowman*, Daniel Suárez, Austin Cindric, and Chase Elliott*.
The two drivers marked with asterisks are the usual suspects; Alex and Chase drive for Hendrick Motorsports. The expectation is that you run for a championship. Same goes for Ty Gibbs though he is just in his second season and still hasn’t won a race. Everyone else is a big question mark.
Burton could win Atlanta. I doubt it would happen, but lightning can strike twice, I suppose. To your point, Briscoe and company rose to the occasion two years ago (with help from a teammate.)
SHR has something to prove for sure, but they couldn’t even get Harvick in victory lane one last time. I’m a bit more jaded about their long-term viability as a Playoff team.
My pick to go far is a guy that almost did it once before: Daniel Suárez.
First things first, the opening round is great for him. He won Atlanta in stupendous fashion to open up the year, and after some early year struggles (no doubt spurred by trying to get Ross in the Playoffs and adapating to a new crew chief), Daniel has found pace in recent weeks that’s going unnoticed.
He could go out and win Atlanta again, or he could go to the Glen where he’s won stages and snag a good points day, even a win. Bristol is a massive wild-card for everyone as we don’t really know how the Goodyears will react to that track at night, but it may be a foregone conclusion for the #99 team to advance by then.
If it wasn’t for his power steering going out at the Roval in 2022, it would’ve been Suárez, not Briscoe, going to the Round of 8, something people conveniently forget about for some reason.
Jey: Suárez is a good contender. I hate that people are writing him off in the Ro16 when they’ve made noticeable gains over the last several races.
As we sit currently, I would put him as my 11th driver come Phoenix at minimum, but with a few good days, he could easily go further.
No matter who it is this first round is about one thing and one thing only: Survival.
Tanner: Something I pointed to in our midseason Burning Questions was the fact that Chevy as a whole hasn’t performed outside of Hendrick. While they did get another win, it didn’t actually count.
So, Daniel Suárez is the fifth Chevy. If he can make it out of the first round and a Hendrick car doesn’t, he moves up further and further in the pecking order at General Motors.
Joey Logano’s even-year trend looks more and more viable every year. What is the likelihood that he claims his third Cup title, ensuring a Penske 3-peat?
Tanner: To briefly recap the Logano “even-year” trend for the uninitiated:
- 2012: wins his second race for JGR; combined with Allmendinger’s dismissal, this helped him land the #22 ride with Penske
- 2014: breakout season, makes it to the Championship Four, gets foiled by a bad pit stop
- 2016: quiet season after the Kenseth fiasco, lands a Championship Four berth with a win at Phoenix, the Edwards contact happens and falls short of Jimmie at the end
- 2018: quietly enters the realm of the Big 3 over the course of the season, scoots by Truex at Martinsville, and ends the Big 3’s tyranny at Homestead to claim his first title
- 2020: another quiet season where a win at Kansas involving him blocking a faster car for 40 laps locks him into the title race, comes up short to Elliott
- 2022: he had a much more exciting and frontrunning season than folks remember, won the Clash, Darlington, Gateway, then Vegas in the Playoffs to give him three weeks of prep time for Phoenix and got his second title
As we sit, this is his worst regular season performance since 2017 when he missed the Playoffs for the first time since the format’s inception in 2014.
I struggle to say he is out of it, but he’s going to have a tough time in the Round of 12, assuming he can get there. He has DNF’d at Bristol each of the last two seasons, meaning he needs a statement win in Atlanta.
He banked very few Playoff points, and the #22 team produces miscues at a concerning rate. They’ve shown speed recently (all three Penske cars have) though I don’t know if it’ll be enough. I could see a Playoff run happening, but to me, 2026 will be the year Joe Log rides again.
Jey: You put it quite eloquently; I’ll put it simply: Joey has spent much of this year getting outrun by SHR cars, which should not happen.
Joey is an elite talent in his prime, and Penske’s lack of speed on high horsepower tracks like Michigan is appalling to say the least.
I don’t have any faith in any of the four (yes, four) Penske cars to make a run further than the Round of 8 even with the attrition we’ll likely see.
I know Ford won all three major championships last year, but they’ve put forth an even worse effort this season and managed to put the most cars in the Cup Playoffs by minimal effort on the OEM’s part.
Tanner: In fairness, Ford entered the season with a brand new body.
Jey: I ascribe that to the OEM as well.
Toyota managed to put five of their eight cars in the Playoffs with 6 in the top 12 in regular-season points. If Ford would put forth more resources the teams wouldn’t be searching for such a large gap in speed 20+ weeks into the year.
Tanner: Agreed. Maybe if Ford spent more time making their cars go fast than trying to spite former drivers, they wouldn’t have to worry about drivers leaving them in the first place.
Will there be tracks in the Round of 16 that benefit certain drivers? Conversely, are other drivers at a disadvantage heading into this Round?
Jey: Atlanta benefits the likes of Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, and Austin Cindric as they are proven commodities that people want to work with at these tracks.
On the other hand, Atlanta will be tough sledding for Burton, Truex, and Larson. These three are inexperienced overall or drivers that have a harder time getting people to work with them to the front based on past incidents.
The Glen should favor the Hendrick Chevys and the Toyotas with the Fords all on paper failing to keep pace. Bristol is where things will get messy, like you’ve said previously the tire issues from the spring may linger.
Combined with it being the cutoff race and the moves people have made in desperation, Bristol is the true wild card of this round. If I were to be a homer, I would pick Hamlin to have an advantage, but his win from the spring no longer counts. So, I genuinely have no idea what “The Last Great Coliseum” will bring.
Tanner: Atlanta is a crapshoot as always, but you’re on the right track with this being Ford’s best chance to lock someone in right away as the Playoffs start.
Obviously, I think Suárez has a great shot to win there again (top-2 in each of the last two races there.) Larson and Truex will struggle because they haven’t adapted to superspeedway racing. Hamlin can’t seem to finish a race at the new Atlanta Superspeedway, so that’ll be a pivotal race for him right out of the gate.
The Glen is a big question mark for me since the aero package changes have helped the racing at most short tracks and road courses this season. Goodyear claims they constructed an aggressive tire for the Glen, which is great on the surface. I still need to see how it races before I drink the Goodyear Kool-Aid.
If I was a betting man, Hendrick and Gibbs will bring strong cars to upstate New York with Blaney and Cindric carrying the banner for Ford while one car from HMS and JGR struggles.
Bristol presents layers of issues that you kindly laid out. Keselowski will win that race. I am calling it weeks ahead of time because I am certain that race will come down to Brad and Kyle Busch driving aggressively and saving tires while the JGR and Penske cars set themselves up for disaster with their car setups.
Jey: I’ve completely forgotten about the new tire compound we’ll have for the Glen. I’m curious to see if it delivers as promised or if we have another parade broken up by stage breaks.
How detrimental will Kyle Larson losing 10 Playoff points* be in the Playoffs?
*Larson lost the Southern 500 after dominating the race (5 Playoff points) and lost the regular season title by 1 point to Tyler Reddick (second-place in regular season gets 5 less Playoff points than the champion)
Tanner: My guess is that it’ll have little bearing on how Kyle Larson fares.
He is +35 to the cutline now. Larson managed this while missing a race, and it wasn’t just any race: It was the Coca-Cola 600 that is broken up into four stages, meaning it has the biggest points payout of any race.
That’s not to say that Larson is a lock for the Championship, though.
The #5 team displayed many dings and dents in their armor over the past month or so, dating back to Chicago when he had an impromptu meeting with the tire barrier. Throw in his slip at Michigan and his hellish race at Daytona two weeks ago, and I’m not hot on the #5 team right now.
Kyle Larson has completed just one (1) race at the reconfigured Atlanta with a career-high finish of 13th. He finished outside the top-20 at Watkins Glen last season. He came home second to Denny at Bristol to close out 2023’s Round of 16.
35 points isn’t a lot, especially if someone under the cutline can win Atlanta like Truex or Briscoe. The following rounds break better for Larson, but if he can’t add to his Playoff points in the first round, it could get scary at the Roval where he’s been eliminated in the past.
You definitely can’t rule out that the lost points could be detrimental, but the mettle of this #5 team is strong. Cliff Daniels commands this team well, giving me confidence that they’ll perform when the chips are down.
Jey: 2024 has been a tale of two seasons for Larson and the #5 crew.
Up until the Coca-Cola 600, they were arguably the team to beat; they were concise, focused, and looked to be shaping into that 2021 form again.
However, they’ve lost their edge.
Maybe it was the hullabaloo over the waiver from attempting the Double. Maybe it was not being able to race in the 600 due to rain from the same storm system that delayed the Indy 500, or the slog of the schedule getting to Larson and crew.
Whichever it is, I can’t help but feel like this mentality or lack thereof is gonna carry over into the postseason. On a personal level, the drama around the Double seems to have really messed with Larson’s psyche. I don’t know if he can get back to form in time to make a true run at the title.
Are any of the drivers currently favored to compete for the Championship Four at risk for an early exit?
Jey: Larson and Hamlin.
Yes, the TRD engine penalty is a big part of this, but he went from third and having at least 25 Playoff points going to sixth in points and only having 15 Playoff points as he sits now. That’s not a comfortable buffer.
The way the year has gone for the #11 team since he won at Dover has been a months-long battle with poor luck and poor decision-making.
The FedEx team is capable of “turning it on”, but between the miscues and attrition that’s befallen them, it’s a much harder ask than years past to flip that switch to make the jump back into the Championship Four.
Tanner: Hamlin’s season this year reminds me a lot of Blaney’s season last year in that they showed speed in the summer; they just couldn’t keep up the results.
As a result, Blaney looked like less of a threat last year than he actually was, and he surprised a ton of people when he made it to Phoenix and won the whole damn thing.
William Byron is only +17 to the cutline, and in Atlanta, that could put him behind the 8-ball very, very early. The #24 team has been mediocre for much of this year. He wrecked his way to win the 500, he dominated COTA, and he snuck by everyone on an undercut at Martinsville. Those are his three wins.
Since Charlotte, William Byron has eight finishes outside the top-10 with five of those landing outside the top-20. If something happens at Watkins Glen too, he could enter Bristol in a virtual must-win situation, so he’s the one I’m looking at to flop in the Round of 16.
That #24 team has the wrong kind of momentum right now. Like you said, it’s harder now to flip the switch to be a great team, especially when you have just one stage win to your name over 26 races.
Will the Playoffs have surprises like the regular season or be relatively straightforward?
Tanner: I’m leaning towards straightforward in that I don’t think we’re going to have a polar bear in Arlington, Texas. What I mean by that is I don’t see any of the lower-tier drivers sneaking into the Championship Four. Burton, Briscoe, Cindric, Suárez, and Gibbs aren’t going to be active title participants by then.
The Round of 16 will likely be chaotic, and I firmly believe we will see a big name go down, maybe even two. The Round of 12 remains the great equalizer. Kansas holds the title of being the best track on the calendar and upsets don’t often happen there.
Then, it’s Talladega, and god knows what happens there. I just don’t see any of those remaining names above having the superspeedway skills to conquer Dega and lock themselves into the Round of 8 by winning there.
The Roval will be unpredictable. They completely altered the layout and incorporated a hairpin into the track before merging back onto the oval.
We’re going to see some insanely desperate maneuvers being made into that corner that I doubt stick and make anything truly pivotal happen. That said, it could open up the door for a non-Playoff winner.
The Round of 8 will just weed out the pretenders from the contenders per usual, and Phoenix will be Phoenix.
Jey: As I said earlier, the most important thing is survival in the Round of 16.
We will see at least one person in the current top-8 drop out in my opinion. The Round of 12 will be the real “separation” in my opinion. Kansas is the best track on the schedule, but more than that, I say at least two winners in the Round of 12 will be in the Final 4.
The last wild card will indeed be the Roval. I think I agree that a non-Playoff driver will play spoiler to someone’s “Hail Mary” attempt.
The Round of 8 will solidify the last two contenders and leave four on the outside looking in because I don’t see many — if any — upsets that late in the season.
Unless someone like Briscoe who’s pulled a run out of nothing before is able to replicate that magic, it’s the outlier and not likely to be replicated despite how good of a story it would be. Phoenix will serve steady as a lackluster race surrounded by a fantastic event.
Tanner: Phoenix does not put on lackluster races. It just receives bad television and media coverage.
It has everything people claim to love about a race track: multiple grooves, tire management, high speeds and low speeds.
TV does not know how to cover that race track, but with Leigh Diffey in the NBC booth, I believe we will get a fitting, more robust coverage for this year’s finale.
This looks to be my first Phoenix title race staying at home. I attended all but two of the races since the reconfiguration, and I can personally attest that the racing through the field is immaculate and difficult. I just hope NBC captures that this year.
Jey: I just haven’t seen a NextGen race that truly evolved into anything substantial, though it’s been close. The race Harvick almost won was brewing to be great and was ruined by late-race nonsense like so many NextGen races. The lower series product is compelling enough that I wish those races were longer.
Tanner: It goes back to you not seeing the track in-person. I promise that Phoenix Raceway is better than TV and the media has made out to be.
Jey: I can believe that. I know after seeing Bristol and Martinsville in person, my opinions on those races are slightly elevated by the fact that I know what the broadcast isn’t showing me.
What misfortune will Denny Hamlin face this time?
Like I alluded to before, it has a chance to end in disappointment.
However, I want to believe it’s their year. It’s always “their year”. I suspect they’ll return to early season form or at least have some better luck. They should realistically be sitting on five or six wins and arguably more.
He’s spent the summer paying the price for others’ mistakes in key moments with Nashville sticking out the most. Races like that show me they have the ability to be top-5 almost anywhere we go and can make it to Phoenix with a shot if most things go right.
Tanner: Denny Hamlin’s best bet to make the title race lays in his performance at Kansas. If he can win that race and ignore Talladega and the Roval entirely, he will make the Championship Four.
The Round of 12 is Denny’s worst nightmare specifically because of the Roval.
He is terrible there, at least under the old layout. Maybe, just maybe, the layout changes will magically make him better there. To put it mildly, that is unlikely.
Denny is great at Vegas, Homestead, and Martinsville. Bad luck prevented him from advancing last year, and based on the end of the regular season, perhaps their bad luck is finally over.
This isn’t in our pool of questions, but: what happens if Denny and Reddick make it to the title race?
Jey: They’re liable to race each other fairly. There will be no concessions made for driver Denny because of owner Denny.
In a straight up 1v1 I would take Denny just because he’s proven (for better or worse) that he’s absolutely fine to push that line to the absolute edge. I haven’t seen the same from Reddick yet. “Yet” being the keyword there.
Tanner: Many thought that about Daniel Hemric once upon a time. He made a lot of people look dumb.
Which non-Playoff driver has the most to prove in the final races of the 2024 season?
Tanner: I’m going to put this as delicately as I can. Kyle Busch has nothing to prove to anyone else.
In my humble opinion, he is a top-5 driver in the history of our sport right now. Anything he does from here on out is only to reinforce or improve our perception of him.
But, if we’re talking about the most to prove, we have to look at Kyle Busch’s strongest critic: Kyle Busch.
He broke Richard Petty’s streak of winning one race per year last season, and I imagine he’d like to improve upon that. He has never gone a full-time season in his career without winning a race.
Kyle Busch is going to give it his all these last 10 races, and I hope he can keep that streak alive.
Drivers I’m not worried about: Ross Chastain, Chris Buescher, and Bubba Wallace. It’s disappointing that they didn’t make the Playoffs. That said, all three will be alright.
Chastain and Buescher have signed recent extensions that keep them in the seat through at least next season. While nothing has been announced yet regarding Bubba Wallace and a contract extension, Freddie Kraft said on this week’s episode of Door Bumper Clear that Denny had just sent him a copy of his contract to sign for next season.
Now, I highly doubt Freddie would dump Bubba, so that tells me his future is still very much with 23XI Racing.
Jey: You’re pretty spot on with Kyle, though I have a very different driver in mind, that being Zane Smith.
Zane just lost out on his Trackhouse development deal to SVG. He may not land a seat with Ford because they’re upset with how he left.
If anyone has 10 races left to show they can hang in the Cup Series, it’s definitely him. Nothing to lose and everything to gain.
The guy has already managed to finish runner-up once, albeit under unique circumstances. He still passed the Reddick who had fresher tires coming to the line.
Zane is a much better driver than he’s shown to be for the majority of the year. While I don’t think he has pace to win, a strong Playoffs could mend some otherwise-tarnished fences to keep him in the Cup Series.
Tanner: I tried to steer clear of drivers with something actually on the line, but Zane is in a painfully tough spot. I advocated for him on another piece, explaining how it’s been a tale of two seasons for him.
He certainly has a future in the Cup Series. He has what it takes to win at the Cup level; he just needs the resources and time to develop. His mental toughness will be tested these next 10 weeks (or until we hear he got signed somewhere, whichever comes first.)
Objectively speaking, is there a driver that stands out as a favorite as we enter the postseason?
Jey: If we’re to believe in momentum heading into the Playoffs, there’s not a single driver that carries more momentum than Tyler Reddick.
His summer stretch has been downright impressive even though he only has two wins; he drove himself into the regular-season title picture and drove away with it including gritting out what had to be an absolutely miserable night in the longest race of the year in the Southern 500.
That team has speed everywhere, and Tyler has the talent to make the most of the speed. So, he’s my slam dunk “favorite” if I were to have one.
Tanner: I took some time to think on this, and I have to agree. I’ve been fond of Reddick through the years. As a result, I wanted to completely take any biases off and look at the raw stats.
The raw stats tell me that Tyler Reddick is poised to be the Cup champion this season.
If I’m picking a favorite in an objective sense, it’s Tyler Reddick. You’re right that he’s lacking in wins; however, he has already eclipsed his career-high for top-10s in a season this year with 18 through 26 races.
He can wheel out a good finish at just about any track. The first round makes me think he will be fine with his buffer to the cutline and his increased maturity.
If I had to make a supposition though, he’s my favorite for the first nine races, but he’s not great at Phoenix.
The one time I remember him running well there (prior to this spring) was the 2020 spring race when he blew a tire that ended his day while running second. So, his sixth career Cup start.
My hunch is that Ryan Blaney is going to be our first repeat champion in this format though.
Jey: You think so? I’m hard-pressed to believe in Penske despite all four cars in the organization making the big dance. I haven’t seen anyone with actual “race-winning” pace consistently besides Blaney, so there may be something to your thought process. I just have to see it to believe it at this point if I’m honest.
Tanner: We saw it last year in a worse Ford body.
(Top Photo Credit: NASCAR)
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