With one half of the NASCAR Cup Series season complete, 38 wheezing metal beasts thunder their way through the Music City for their next challenge: Nashville SuperSpeedway.
Ending the season’s first half was none other than the venerable New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
Predictions of a wet weekend shown true on Sunday as the race had to be halted after 219 laps due to an impending thunderstorm. Though the race was over 70% complete, the looming weather kept teams on their toes and allowed for non-Playoff teams to take big swings in the strategy game.
Chief among them was Front Row Motorsports driver Todd Gilliland. The third-year man out of North Carolina wheeled his Grillo’s Pickles car to the lead right before the halfway point, meaning Gilliland could be declared the winner if weather shortened the ending.
The hotshot lost his chances at victory soon thereafter as successive cautions for Daniel Hemric and Kyle Busch colliding into Noah Gragson slowed the pace of the event.
Shifting strategy calls resulted in Denny Hamlin claiming the stage 2 victory before Tyler Reddick assumed the lead by staying out under the stage caution.
Racing lasted for a brief moment as Joey Logano locked the brakes up going into turn 1 and took Chase Elliott with him, the mistake ruining both of their days. The cautions continued until lap 216 when Kyle Busch brought out his second caution of the day that led us into the rain caution.
After three hours of track-drying efforts, NASCAR saddled the cars with wet-weather tires on a big oval for the very first time, and it was a showcase of the unknown.
Kyle Busch wrecked again under caution while rolling around the track by himself, ending a horrible day he would love to forget, and the yellows never really stopped coming.
The field went on a run over 10 laps just once in the final 80 laps, slowing the field for 36 laps over that time.
With the race nearing its conclusion, Christopher Bell put himself in great position all day, adapting wonderfully to the rain tires, and despite the efforts of Michael McDowell and Stewart-Haas Racing, the Oklahoman was able to lift his second lobster in the last three Loudon races.
The win ties Bell with Hamlin, Larson, and Byron for most on the season, and with just eight races remaining, it’s anyone’s guess which driver is the most dominant and the biggest threat to be on top at Phoenix.
As a quick note, Christopher Bell announced his new teammate for next year, albeit unintentionally at first.
Chase Briscoe will pilot the Joe Gibbs Racing #19 Toyota Camry in 2025, replacing the retiring Martin Truex Jr. in the ride he brought to prominence. Briscoe’s last few years have been shrouded with inconsistency, but it’s hard to deny the talent of a driver we all see win nine Xfinity races in 2020 without practice and qualifying.
My colleague, Jey, and I talked about this and more in a special roundtable we did where we discussed our projections for the rest of the season and the outlook for some of the sport’s biggest talents.
Now that we’re caught up to speed on what’s happening in the NASCAR world, let’s get to know Nashville SuperSpeedway, which is not really anywhere near Broadway and the Grand Ole Opre.
The Track
Plans to construct a new racing facility in Tennessee emerged in 1997 when Dover Downs Entertainment purchased property in the town of Lebanon.
Later breaking ground in 1999, the track opened its gates two years later to host the NASCAR Busch Series (now Xfinity) and Craftsman Truck Series as well as the Indy Racing League.
The 1.33-mile concrete oval presented unique challenges for drivers and teams as its flatter turns made for more heavy braking on the entry to turns compared to standard intermediate tracks.
For nearly a decade, the Xfinity and Trucks made at least one (but often two) trips to Nashville SuperSpeedway, but much like IndyCar, they opted to leave due to declining ticket sales.
Much of the track’s failure was pinned on never securing a Cup Series date, and it sat barren for 10 long years. In a move that shocked many in the racing world, the tricky D-shaped oval not only returned to the Trucks and Xfinity Series schedules but would make its debut on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit for 2021.
Since then, the track has hosted a yearly tripleheader race weekend with Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup, and as of this year and next, Nashville SuperSpeedway will host the NTT IndyCar Series finale.
The aged concrete surface, untouched since its inception in 2001, produces enhanced tire wear and pushes the brakes and the suspensions of each car to their absolute limit.
Drivers roll out of turn 4 and onto the curved straight that arches across the finish line to start the lap. Drivers sling their cars further to the left and out toward the wall in the approach to the high-speed turn 1.
Going from 9° banking in the trioval to 14° in the turns might not sound like a lot, but cars carry so much speed into the first couple of corners that can reach up and catch drivers if they’re not keen to all the quirks this circuit has to offer.
Turn 1 remains a regular site to see driers approach the corners and ride through them whichever way works the best. Whether that’s entering on the bottom and easing your way to the top on exit or riding in the resin in the fourth lane, you will march to the front if your car is strong enough.
A backstretch banked at 6° provides little reprieve for drivers on the exit of turn 2, shooting down the narrow grey aggregate until reaching turn 3. While not as notorious as Kentucky Speedway’s third turn, turn 3 at Nashville has proven to be calamity corner time and again.
Turns 3 & 4 are banked identically to 1 & 2, but with the the trioval lurking, the exit of turn 4 can be compromised, especially if you find yourself side-by-side with another car.
Drivers power off the fourth turn and down the curved front stretch to the finish line to complete their lap.
Let’s move on over to the forecast for Sunday as well as Fast Facts from the three previous races at Nashville.
Weather & Fast Facts
Scattered thunderstorms on Sunday make for a Sunday full of indecision from NASCAR leadership. According to Weather Underground, precipitation is slated to start in the early morning hours before dropping out, only to return in the early afternoon until after 3pm Central time.
Tomorrow’s scheduled green flag on NBC is 3:53pm Eastern time (2:53pm Central time), so the showers could impact when cars actually get rolling tomorrow afternoon.
Thankfully, the evening provides some respite from the damp conditions, but it must be said that this track’s seasoned concrete throws a major wrench into the track-drying process, potentially further delaying the race with water getting stuck in the track otherwise known as “weepers”.
Heat will be an issue if you go to this race. A heat advisory is no joke, so I stress again that you should use sunscreen and clothes to help keep you safe from the elements, especially considering the inclement weather.
Last year’s Ally 400 saw a massive dip in natural cautions as its two paled in comparison to the first two races that featured more than eight each. This might be explained by moving from a day race to a night race where the track is cooler than it would during the day.
An average race at the Home of Country Music looks like this: 8 cautions, 47 caution laps, 18 lead changes, 2653 green-flag passes, 3-hours-and-22-minute duration, last caution lap falls 65 laps from the finish, and there hasn’t been an instance of Overtime at Nashville SuperSpeedway.
Sunday’s race is due to run for 300 laps with stages that divide the race at laps 90-185-300, meaning the lengths for the stages are 90-95-115.
Now that we’ve gotten a better understanding of the forecast and the past events at this track, let’s take a look at the favorites from the oddmakers at DraftKings.
The Odds
Tearing into these odds, and the first name that catches my eye is last week’s winner Christopher Bell (+700). The 29-year-old hotshoe notched a top-10 in each of his three appearances at the circuit, and his #20 team roar into the Music City with the wind in their sails.
Knowing crew chief Adam Stevens, he wants to take command of the regular-season points lead to earn the 15 extra Playoff points entering the postseason, much like he did with former driver Kyle Busch. Another week for Christopher Bell at another flat track might result in a familiar image of the #20 car in winner’s circle.
A staple of this segment, Denny Hamlin (+350) occupies the top spot on the scoring pylon and on the oddsmakers’ list, claiming his second pole of 2024.
Hamlin searched for victory at New Hampshire, but he was no doubt enthralled that he didn’t have to hold the lobster in victory lane, sinking from 3rd to 24th in the final 75 laps on rain tires. Nashville awards a unique trophy (a Gibson Les Paul guitar), something Denny would love to add to his collection on Sunday night.
Right in the #11 team’s tire tracks is fourth-place starter Kyle Larson (+400). The 2021 champion’s trip to the Magic Mile was a mixed bag that ended positively, posting a fourth-place finish.
Larson won the inaugural Ally 400 on the way to his first Cup title, and he has upheld a sterling record at the track, scoring a top-5 in every single race. It should surprise no one to see the #5 HendrickCars Camaro running up front and taking the checkered.
Of the drivers not currently locked into the Playoffs with a win, Martin Truex Jr. (+700) and Ross Chastain (+1600) are the ones to watch.
Truex’s follies mark a season that leaves the #19 team shaking its heads or its fists at the end of races. Still a strong contender to win every week, Truex swept the stages last year before falling to second. If the New Jersey boy ends the night looking like Bruce Springsteen, it would be a fitting bookend to the champion’s career.
Chastain enters the weekend as the defending winner of the event, passing Truex in the third stage en route to his fifth career win. Chastain owns an even more impervious record than Larson, owning a 2.7 average finish in his three starts, so if we see an assault on a watermelon, you heard it here first.
Writer’s Pick
Last week’s pick was Ryan Blaney, and he put himself in position to win with less than 10 laps to go at New Hampshire before he was abruptly wiped out by Michael McDowell, dropping him to 25th.
This week, I’m selecting a driver that has no true history of success at Nashville: Tyler Reddick.
23XI’s young gun stumbles into the weekend with a 22nd-place average finish at the 1.33-mile oval, but it hasn’t exactly been for a lack of speed. A spin on the pit access road during green-flag stops brought an end to his day in 2021, and his 2022 race unraveled after he made contact with another car on pit road.
Reddick’s race came off the rails last year as a result of a wheel dislodging itself from the car during green-flag stops, meaning Reddick’s races here come undone in the oddest of circumstances.
He rolls off the grid sixth in his #45 Monster Energy Toyota, and because of his grandfather, he holds an intrinsic link to stars made in Nashville. If he can stay out of trouble, Reddick may find himself rubbing elbows with the sport’s best and cement his status as a contender for the 2024 title this weekend in Tennessee.
(Top Photo Credit: Donn Jones/Associated Press)
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