Burning Questions at NASCAR’s Halfway Point

Today, our writers Tanner and Jey will be answering a set of questions from diehard fans and casual fans as the NASCAR Cup Series reaches its halfway point of the season.

Without any further ado, here is our first question.

Which driver and which team has the most to prove in the second half of the season?

Jey: The driver with the most to prove is Bubba Wallace. Bubba currently sits outside the playoffs with eight weeks to go. His teammate is sixth in points and has been in contention for several wins. This shows me that the team is capable of winning, and I believe Bubba has shown he is capable of winning at NASCAR’s top level.

Tanner: While I agree that the #23 team needs to put some races together or they’ll be in “must-win” for the rest of the regular season, I’m going to go outside the box and say Ross Chastain.

His teammate already won, and Ross hasn’t shown race winning speed, period. That could change this weekend heading into Nashville where he dominated last season, and given that it’s Trackhouse’s unofficial home track, maybe he will find something with Phil Surgen.

My main concern is him having two bad races in a row, and that’s always right around the corner in a sport as chaotic and unpredictable as NASCAR.

Jey: You know I haven’t thought about Ross that much, considering how high up he is in points that isn’t necessarily a good thing, you can’t ride seventh to 12th on your good weekends and expect to go far in this format. Like you said his teammate got a win earlier this year. He definitely needs to step it up and this weekend would be a great place to start.

Tanner: What team has the most to prove though?

Jey: The team that has the most to prove is easily RCR. With Andy Petree’s “retirement” this week and Keith Rodden assuming his role as interim competition director, the two RCR entries have to show some semblance of improvement over the latter half of the year, or it may be time to rework everything in Welcome, NC.

Tanner: Yeah, RCR…what is there to say, really? They would be the last two cars on track every single week if it wasn’t for Kyle Busch, and even he isn’t able to really drag this team forward right now.

I heard this season that Austin Dillon signed a contract extension, and it just makes me wonder what the long-term vision is for that company.

Austin is 34 years old. He has four Cup wins, two of which were by either dumping or trying to dump a Ford. The other two were at Texas in 2020 where it was the 550 package, and he and Reddick blocked the field. The other was a fuel mileage victory, and that’s the most impressive one.

RCR needs to spend some money and get some different folks that are going to think outside the box. You don’t need to reinvent the wheel, but you need to know how to make tires on the wheel last longer and go faster, which they’ve failed to figure out thus far.

Which driver do you feel most confident in to make a run at the championship?

Jey: If I had to pick one favorite to win the title today based on their whole body of work, I’d pick Chase Elliott.

I know he doesn’t have as many wins as Larson or Bell, but his average finish is insane. Unless the wheels fall off, he’s going to be there come Phoenix, and that team has proven they can raise the bar when they need to in the past. That makes for a deadly combo and they are the group I have the most confident in as of right now.

Tanner: As someone who has been on the Elliott train since before Texas, I’m glad folks are starting to see just how ruthlessly consistent he is, and I remarked the other day that all he needs is just a little extra to start clicking off wins.

Jey: I was definitely late to the party on Elliott. I can definitely see where he could get a bit more, but honestly, his average finish clears his competition by such a margin that he may be able to take a 2003 Matt Kenseth approach to the postseason.

I do think the team will continue to improve though. They thrived in the 2020 Playoffs, so this group definitely has experience with turning it up a notch.

Tanner: That’s my issue though. We had this discussion for years about Ryan Blaney. “He just needs better luck” or “He needs just a little bit more than he’s given.”

Granted, that turned out to be correct, and look what it’s done for him. It’s that exact reason why Blaney is my title favorite right now over everyone else.

His performance is reminiscent of Tony Stewart’s title-winning 2005 season. Getting hot in the summer and clicking off some wins before the Playoffs where he has the ability to win at every track.

Bell is coming on strong now, but I need to see enduring success from that team. They’re just plain too inconsistent historically, same with Larson and Hamlin at this stage.

Jey: I like the Blaney pick a lot, especially now that he’s gotten back to victory lane after a few heartbreak finishes. I agree on the others fully. Hamlin and Larson seemed to be the ones to beat early on thus year but at the midway point I can’t hitch my proverbial wagon to either of them.

Which non-Playoff driver do you think can emerge as a dark horse title contender?

Tanner: We all know Chris Buescher is a second-half driver, so I can’t imagine he’ll be tied down for too long. He made it to the Round of 8 last year and shown solid speed at different kinds of tracks.

The Fords will be strong come Playoff time while the Chevys fade. That said, I would also keep an eye on Truex. Maybe he goes on a 2011 Tony Stewart run in the Playoffs to shake off last year’s funk.

Jey: I like both of those guys a lot, Truex is gonna wanna go out on top, and Buescher is out to prove last year wasn’t a fluke. However, I’m gonna go out on a very long limb and say Josh Berry

There’s a mountain of reasons you could list on why it shouldn’t or won’t happen, but follow me here.

That #4 team knows how to win at Michigan and Richmond in this car; they did it less than two years ago. Common sense says Berry would be better suited for the latter.

With the flashes he’s had recently (especially this past week), he’s reminding me a lot of Kevin: driving Harvick’s lines in Harvick’s old car with all the people that know how to build fast cars for Kevin.

All those folks at the shop and working on the #4 car have something to prove while they look for a home for next year. It creates a very specific set of circumstances for not only Berry but that whole team to make up for last year and to end SHR’s time in NASCAR with one last run at it.

Tanner: But, can they contend for the title?

Jey: If he can win-and get-in, he just needs to survive with no issues to make the Round of 12. From there, he’ll need a win at Talladega or a ton of misfortune from others to have a chance.

If he manages all of that, he can win Martinsville in the Round of 8 — it’s how he put his name on the map in the Xfinity Series after all. How poetic would it be to send that 4 car back to Phoenix one last time at the same track they dominated for so long?

I know it’s half-baked and hair-brained, but we’ve seen crazier things happen in this Playoff format. At the end of the day, this 4 team knows how to win, so why not them?

Tanner: I am not sure Rodney knows how to win with this car. I know he’s won with it twice at different tracks, but there ain’t no way they are trying harder this year than last year.

I just don’t see any SHR drivers winning. I think Josh’s best chance is probably Richmond, and the Penske cars will be faster, RFK too.

SHR being the fourth Ford team makes me think there isn’t going to be a surprise win from any of their four drivers, and it would be more apt if Harvick ends up as their last winner.

Jey: That’s fair. They might be trying harder because they’re on tryouts at this point. Sucks to say, but their livelihoods being threatened is a damn good motivator.

The #4 and #14 have had some real great runs that make me think if one of the four SHR cars is gonna win, it’ll come from that camp.

What race are you looking forward to seeing most this summer and why?

Tanner: Kansas is the best track on the circuit, hands down. This car fits that place like the snuggest glove. It opens the chaos round of the Playoffs, which makes this a perfect placement.

It’s almost like the anti-Talladega. I genuinely think 70% of the field can win at Kansas if they hit the setup vs anyone winning at Dega because of shenanigans.

I’m also intrigued by Michigan because the pavement is a year older and the Indy oval. Pocono will be a good litmus test for Indy to see if any improvements made to the car assist in making passing opportunities.

I almost want them to try that flipping splitter that goes slower when you’re not in traffic, but this sport hates trying anything because it’s afraid of its fanbase.

Jey: I think that’s a great assessment. That’s why we’re trekking to Kansas in September: it’s one of the best (if not the best) tracks NASCAR has to offer.

Personally, the Brickyard 400 being back holds the biggest intrigue. On paper it’s a single-lane track with only one way through the corner, and that doesn’t suit this car.

Maybe it’s my nostalgia for the oval blended with the unknown because I’m hopeful the drivers can put on a show down the straights to make passing a common occurrence.

I am also excited to see how drivers handle Chicago this year and if it remains something special. I really hope it does because — credit to NASCAR where it’s due — it was really quite an experience last year rain and all.

Tanner: A lot of IndyCar drivers got better at taking the high side in the turns at Indy this year, and Larson said the IndyCar isn’t terribly far off the Cup car to him.

That may be more true or less true depending on the driver, but Penske and Hendrick will have a leg up at Indy based on having actual data to work with as they prepare for the series’ first stop there since 2020.

Are you optimistic for the sport’s future from a fan/marketing/viewership/streaming perspective?

Jey: As a fan, I am absolutely optimistic about the sport’s future. It seems that NASCAR themselves have started to hit their stride as far as pushing into new markets and demographics.

Marketing is a bit different, and I’ll try to stay out of the weeds on it. What I will say is it’s an active detriment to the sport that the tracks can work against the progress this sport has made. I’m not a huge fan of that.

Tanner: From a fan’s perspective, I’m actually a bit more hesitant to be excited.

Socially speaking, NASCAR has made strides since 2020 to make the race track a more welcoming place for fans of all creeds and demographics, and for both of us being under the LGBTQ+ umbrella, I can say firmly I see a lot of different fans at the track now than those I saw when I was a kid.

That’s a step in the right direction because this sport should be for anyone that’s interested. On the race car side, we’re still missing the mark at a good few tracks and making this car less reliant on aerodynamics.

It’s been three years, and multiple aero packages have been attempted. A solution needs to come soon, very soon. As a fanbase and as a sport, we cannot afford to have the short tracks and road courses go to the wayside for Kentucky Speedway’s resurrection. We fought too damn hard for them to be added to the schedule.

The charter negotiations make me extremely cautious about next year and how it’ll start. I don’t like what I’ve heard from NASCAR at any interval in these negotiations. Allegedly, the sanctioning body wants to field their own teams and buy charters, all while refusing to make charters permanent.

Effectively, NASCAR wants to reverse engineer Roger Penske’s vision when he purchased IndyCar (Penske owned a team prior to Penske Entertainment’s purchase of the series in 2019), and I am whole-heartedly against this diversion.

Marketing goes hand-in-hand with that, and this is why we have a platform.

NASCAR can’t be completely absolved from SMI’s grand marshal decisions as they brought Ron DeSantis to Homestead in 2020, but to their credit, they haven’t brought in politicians as a guest of NASCAR since.

Obviously, the Trump appearance at the Coke 600 would have felt like a kick in the teeth if SMI hadn’t done this with two similarly-derided politicians in Greg Abbott and Brian Kemp before this.

Jey: To your point, I feel safe at the race track where as I wouldn’t have pre-Covid. I try to give NASCAR a bit of credit because, like you said, they seem to have learned since the last time they pulled any kind of political stunt on their own.

Honestly politicians don’t need to be at the race track, point blank. It shouldn’t have happened to begin with.

Tanner: If we don’t want politics in the sport, we need to be about it and enforce that code. Trump needs to be the last politician to visit. If a politician wants to buy a grandstand ticket and sit amongst us commoners, I’m fine with it, but I don’t need to see a BLANK 2024 on the premises of the race track.

To tag back to the question posed, streaming comes a few years too late for all sports.

It would’ve been nice if NASCAR didn’t sign such a long TV deal in 2014 to adjust better with the times, but literally every other sport was behind on streaming for the same reason.

Amazon Prime does a great job on Thursday night when they host the NFL, so I have no doubt they’re putting a dynamite roster together for their booth alongside Dale Jr. Really hoping to see Allen Bestwick alongside him for the 10 races between Prime and TNT.

Jey: I was worried that this new TV deal would also ignore streaming, but to my surprise, they’ve decided to lean into it.

With the move into streaming, viewership numbers aren’t going to matter as much. They look very healthy this year compared to other live sports. which is a great thing.

I’m a huge fan of the streaming coming next year because it opens up ease of access, which is what NASCAR needs to focus on long-term. The easier it is to access the product, the more people will pay to see the product.

Now that we know more about the SHR drivers and charters, where do you think their three other drivers land?

Jey: It’s such a fluid situation unlike anything we’ve seen before, truly uncharted waters at least since the shut down of Michael Waltrip Racing.

I speculate that Berry ends up either at Front Row or maybe even in the #21 with Rodney and company unless Rodney takes a higher role at somewhere like Spire.

Noah has the best chance to end up either in a third Front Row car or maybe those RCR rumors hold weight, though I don’t feel like expansion is a good idea for them right now.

This leaves Ryan Preece as the odd man out unfortunately. He could do well in Xfinity fir the Haas Factory Team, but I see his landing spots as extremely limited outside of that

Tanner: I tend to agree, this situation is unlike any we have seen before in the sport.

Let’s start with the easy one: I would be shocked if Ford doesn’t retain the services of both Josh Berry and Rodney Childers.

After learning Haas Factory Team is aiming to stay with Ford, I knew that the Berry-Childers combo was no longer an option, so I think the most natural fit is Wood Brothers.

Noah Gragson is a puzzling case. He has shown speed in a Cup car, which you couldn’t really say a year ago, but he’s still painfully inconsistent.

He’s still making terminal mistakes in the car like at Loudon this past weekend that — along with his checkered past both on and off the track — makes him a tough sell to potential teams and sponsors.

The most likely route for him that I see is taking a detour through Xfinity with Haas Factory Team, lining up with Riley Herbst. I don’t see a Cup team taking a chance on a guy with all of Noah’s inexperience and baggage.

I can see Preece moving down to Trucks. I could be off-base here, but the NASCAR truck has more downforce than the other national series cars, more similar to the modifieds he cut his teeth on in the Northeast.

He would be a natural fit at somewhere like Niece or even Spire. Preece is really talented, but I’m worried he’s no longer a Cup guy.

Then again, Michael McDowell lasted much longer than anyone expected and made a solid career for himself. So, if a Cup team takes a chance on him, that would be cool, but his viability as a Cup-level guy is coming into serious question, despite SHR and the “study group” exiling the #41 car.

How will Chase Briscoe perform at Joe Gibbs Racing in 2025?

Jey: It really depends on how he takes to the culture of Joe Gibbs Racing and TRD as a whole.

Toyota Racing Development is a machine, and Briscoe is about to have more tools than he can shake a stick at. James Small can tune that #19 car into a winning race car.

If all parties involved can minimize mistakes, there’s no reason Briscoe shouldn’t be a threat to make the Round of 8 at minimum.

As for wins and all that? As Truex has shown us over the past few years, winning at the top level in the NextGen era is really damn hard, but I’d expect Briscoe to compete for wins and hopefully snag at least a few.

Tanner: And, that to me is the biggest worry in all of this: Who is Chase Briscoe?

The scary thing is, we don’t really know. Nobody does.

When he was up against superior Xfinity competition in 2018 and 2019, he won a race each year, but he wasn’t a dynamite prospect in my eyes considering his more advanced age.

He went down to a single-car outfit in 2020, then Covid happened. I’m not sure how to rate 2020 as a season. On the one hand, you have to give it up to Harvick, Briscoe, and Hamlin because they had the right bond with their crew chiefs to set a car up well without practice and qualifying, and in some ways, that’s a titanic feat.

On the other hand, SHR has been in a downward spiral ever since. Briscoe has just one win to his name in four seasons of competition. He has been overaggressive and tried brushing it off. I imagine he has very few friends in the garage because of his aggression.

My ultimate outlook for Briscoe hinges on us finding out who he is next year.

If you give him a fast car, does he have the discipline to rise to the occasion and win races? I don’t know the answer to that, but James Small gives me little confidence that he’s going to maximize Chase’s talent. They could hardly muster a top-10 in last year’s Playoffs after winning the regular season title and have yet to win this year.

I think Briscoe could miss the Playoffs because he makes too many mistakes, but his ceiling for 2025 is Round of 8 easily. Unfortunately for him, Chase has the fourth car in the pecking order, and with Jones and Suarez in the past, we’ve seen how being the fourth JGR car works out.

I think he has a Chris Buescher 2022 season with less reliability issues from his car. Somewhat consistent, getting better as the race evolves, and picks up a win in the Playoffs.

Jey: It seems much of the #19 car’s problems stem from Truex’s lack of communication when he gets frustrated. Briscoe could help Small, which is a big reason why I think that the Round of 8 should be the goal and not the ceiling.

Tanner: Of course, but the broader theme of Briscoe’s career is his decision-making because, let’s face it, the guy isn’t lacking for passion. It’s his brain. He makes bad decisions under pressure, and that needs to change.

That said, that’s Denny Hamlin’s fatal flaw, and that’s never been worked out.

That’s my skepticism with this move in totality. Will JGR stand behind Chase Briscoe and help him to improve even when he makes a high-leverage mistake? They don’t have a good track history of it, and if this doesn’t work out, Briscoe’s future in Cup is shaky.

Jey: I think his driving style and aggression have been changing, but it’s harder to notice because he’s been racing for a team in a nosedive his whole Cup tenure.

Tanner: Which relays to my earlier point – we can have all the optimism or pessimism about Briscoe right now.

The truth of the matter is we do not know how good those cars actually were or weren’t these past four years. We don’t know how much Chase carried or was carried, and until we see him run about 12-16 races next year, we aren’t likely to have a better idea than we do now about what Cup driver Chase Briscoe is capable of.

What do the next five years of Kyle Busch’s career look like?

Jey: Oh my, Kyle Busch. What a curious situation he finds himself in. No real momentum or drive right now with how things have panned out after winning multiple times last year. He has one year left on his deal after this one, and then, who knows where he goes?

Unless Denny retires and/or goes to 23XI, I don’t see a seat back at the table at JGR for him. That’s without even considering the budding talents in the TRD pipeline like Corey Heim.

It might be a bit too soon to tell, but I don’t see Busch making any move that isn’t lateral to where he is now. Legacy Motor Club is a curious one that could interest Kyle, but I don’t know if he’d wanna spend his proverbial twilight building another team up after how this RCR stint has gone.

He could just go truck racing to get that last title if he remains competitive, but I think we need to let a few things clear out before we see what Kyle does for sure.

Tanner: The first thing I want to put out there is Kyle Busch selling KBM was an admittance that a mistake was made on his part since KBM was a major pain point in his negotiations with JGR and Toyota.

To touch on RCR, having a guy in Tyler Reddick that helped the team develop the NextGen car kept that team afloat even through parts of last year because they developed this car from scratch with NASCAR.

Given Kyle Busch’s most notable complaint about this NextGen platform, I imagine Reddick also found ways to run somewhat off the right rear in this car, something that would’ve intrigued Busch as well as the aforementioned research and development advantage afforded to them.

Needless to say, all of that is defunct because RCR are not the ones innovating to make these cars go faster.

This was a bad move on both sides, that much is clear to me. It was a rushed decision by both Kyle and Richard to fill spots rather than an earnest agreement made with clear minds.

We already touched on this, but when Austin Dillon is your teammate — a driver who has not changed or improved much since entering the series 11 seasons ago — the development of your cars will be hindered.

To put it kindly, putting Keith Rodden in charge of competition sounds like a very puzzling move.

Jey: Richard Childress’ legacy is already cemented as who he’s always been, but I get what you mean. It’s all painfully bleak if you read between the lines.

Tanner: Richard Childress needs to figure out who he wants to be in these last years of ownership.

If he wants to just keep having fun with friends and family running in 24th, that’s cool, but do the right thing and release Kyle from his contract.

If you want to win some races and contend for a title, you need people that you may not be comfortable with immediately. You need to open your checkbook, and you need to pay for some new talent because, let’s face it, Todd Berrier ain’t walking through that door.

Gil Martin ain’t walking through that door.

It would behoove Kyle to take the rest of this year to assess the situation at RCR and see if this team even shows an inkling of improvement. If he feels there’s improvement, ride it out I guess.

If it continues sliding, you need to suck it up and make some phone calls and see what’s out there. Maybe a former teammate and a really cool basketball player would be interested in acquiring your services.

Kyle Busch should be in a Toyota for the rest of his career, and racing for Michael Jordan and being the veteran presence 23XI really needs is a perfect spot for him.

He has the ability to yank that team up out of this slump in performance we’ve seen from them this year and work with a team that’s hellbent on doing everything differently.

Here’s something I found out today: Chris Gabehart got his start at JGR because he was a mechanic on Kyle’s late model team. Gabehart is super young still, and Denny isn’t.

Who’s to say Kyle wouldn’t reunite with his old employee?

Pairing Kyle with a bona-fide crew chief is what will save him from this free fall. I don’t think we’ve seen the last of an elite Kyle Busch. He’s actually entering his prime, and if he can get a car that can stay underneath him, he will win again and win a lot.

There’s enough left in Kyle Busch’s tank to compete and win a third title, but his elite talents and skills must be met with an championship-caliber mind.

What is one surprising driver move that you think will happen before 2025?

Jey: Riley Herbst to 23XI is something I’ve seen tossed around the rumor mill. It would be a really good way for them to get a third charter, give Riley a certain amount of years on his contract, and his family foots the bill of the charter and helps bring in sponsors to run the car.

If I had to pick one not so far out it would probably be if someone snatched up Carson Hocevar.

I know he’s a bit raw still but that kid is showing up and showing out in a car that ran shotgun on the field last year. Carson would be a great signing if someone could make room for him.

Tanner: Zane Smith will get leased back out to FRM for two more years to drive the Love’s #34 car. It’s a better situation for Zane to be there right now.

Trackhouse simply has no room for him at this time because it appears they are zeroing in on SVG over Zane for a third Trackhouse charter.

FRM has better resources and spends more money than Spire. Zane would be reunited with a ton of people he’s already worked with, and he performed better at Front Row in his select starts than this year in a Chevy.

What would you tell a casual fan to pay attention to in the second half of the season?

Jey: I suggest casual fans spend the next eight races familiarizing themselves with what Playoff points are and how they work. With how important each and every single point is, understanding how and why these points follow the best drivers to Phoenix is probably one of the most important details that a casual may miss out on.

Tanner: First of all, don’t forget about the break for the Olympics, but there are a lot of great races ahead.

These cars push close to 700 horsepower, and watching them around Indianapolis, Pocono, and Michigan should be a treat for the uninitiated because of the cars going as fast as they will all year.

The run from Darlington to Phoenix will be a sight to behold. The Playoffs are really new and interesting this year, and beef is always on simmer in the summer races as winless teams scramble for every point possible.

I would keep an eye on the developing stories of the season as well. A lot of decisions are yet to be made in regards to where drivers will find themselves at Daytona next season, and even if you’re totally off-base and wrong, I like seeing people’s ideas of how drivers fit into a race team’s culture.

Jey: I almost forgot about the Olympic break. That’s two weeks with no NASCAR, which will be quite strange.

I agree on the playoff slate feeling a bit refreshed while remaining exciting. It will be interesting to see how desperate teams on at the cutline get as we approach the cutoff as well.

Silly season seems to be a whole new animal as well this year, so I feel like you’re spot on in saying there will be a ton to watch for on that front as well. Just, don’t tell Christopher Bell anything you aren’t ready to announce.

(Featured Photo Credit: James Gilbert/Getty Images)