If a trip to gargantuan Talladega Superspeedway pushed the stars of the NASCAR Cup Series over the limit, the next stop on the 2024 tour sees them face off with the fearsome Monster Mile on Sunday afternoon.
Last week’s GEICO 500 ended in regulation but not without trouble for some series stalwarts. The first two stages of the race went caution-free, and had it not been for a terrifying crash between four Toyota drivers, the race may have ended without a caution for cause.
A hot Alabama afternoon met its end in a flaming, flipping heap when Michael McDowell set off a melee in the trioval trying to block fellow Ford driver Brad Keselowski. The final-lap contact allowed Tyler Reddick to squeak by and stand victorious at the end of a grueling 188-lap, 500-mile race at NASCAR’s largest oval.
The Toyota incident resulted in a lower-spinal fracture for Legacy Motor Club’s Erik Jones, forcing Jones out of the car on a week-to-week basis with Truck Series regular and Toyota development driver Corey Heim taking the reigns of the famous #43 in the interim.
Located in the capital of Delaware, Dover Motor Speedway opened its doors in the summer of 1969, setting the stage for a dominant march to the win by the King Richard Petty as the future 7-time champion notched the inaugural Mason-Dixon 300 in his 1969 Ford Torino Talladega.
Since that day, another 7-time champ came up through the ranks and scored 11 Cup wins at the abrasive 1-mile oval, more than anyone else in history; the driver in question is current Legacy Motor Club owner-driver Jimmie Johnson.
Johnson’s prowess in America’s first state spanned his entire career to this point. From sweeping the track’s Cup races in his rookie year to earning his landmark 83rd career victory in 2017, the track rewards Johnson’s driving style, and he’s hoping to add another member to his Miles the Monster mob.
One of three NASCAR circuits that measure 1-mile in length, Dover Motor Speedway stands among the harshest facilities the Cup Series visits.
The concrete surface celebrates its 30th year of competition since its last repave, making tire management a key to a winning performance.
Cars slide off turn 4 before crossing the start-finish line. Drivers then guide their car into the 58-foot wide, concrete gulch of turn 1, slanted at a sharp 24° all the way through the exit of turn 2.
Because of the banking and excessive tire wear, drivers find grip all over the concrete kingdom, wrapping the apron with their left-side Goodyears or inching close to the outside wall.
Drivers yank their metal machines onto the short 1078-foot backstretch until diving into the ravine of turns 3 & 4 that mirrors the 24° banking of turns 1 & 2.
After fighting with their car for about 23 seconds and making sure not to hit the wall, drivers will cruise down the bumpy 9 degree front stretch to complete their lap.
Now that we’ve gotten acquainted with the track itself, let’s take a look at the forecast and fast facts.
The Weather & Fast Facts
The forecast for this weekend’s event appeared dour and depressing earlier in the week, but it seems the Sun and Mother Nature are poised to let the race proceed on Sunday as planned.
A projected high of 81°F sets the stage for a warmer affair on Sunday, so if you’re headed to Dover Downs, dress and sunscreen yourselves accordingly. Don’t be fooled by the 46% cloud cover.
The 81°F high for this race ranks as the second-hottest Dover spring race in the last 10 years, hopefully allowing for a slick race track and ample opportunities for mistakes.
Though the chance of precipitation is low at 20%, regular Dover attendees know that the race is marred by rain somewhat regularly as the last two spring events concluded on Monday afternoon.
On average, the 400-mile Dover race sees 9 cautions for 48 caution laps, bumping the average time of the race up to 3-and-a-half hours. If you’re watching from home, grab a snack or two before the green flag falls at 2:11pm Eastern Time on Fox Sports 1.
Just two races in the last decade bled over into Overtime, the most recent coming in 2017. To further emphasize the point, the track’s last caution in the spring comes out around lap 345 or 56 laps from the end of the race, meaning we’re not likely to see any late-race strategy calls unless there’s a late caution like last year.
Despite the lack of late-race heroics, Dover experiences its fair share of comers and goers over the taxing 400-lap journey, leading to an average of 16 lead changes per race.
The stage cautions will wave first at lap 121 before the second stage ends under yellow at lap 251, making the stage lengths: 120 laps-130 laps-150 laps.
Since we’re brushed up on the weather and the facts, let’s see which clouds the oddsmakers have their heads in at DraftKings.
The Odds
Disclaimer: This is not intended to encourage you, the reader, to make a wager on this race. If you feel you have a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER for support.
After a week of superspeedway racing, I am glad we’re returning to some form of normalcy as we head to Dover.
One driver in particular is thrilled to be out of the pack and at the top of the odds yet again: Kyle Larson (+450). The 31-year-old enters his last race before a packed Month of May where Larson will be racking up a ton of airline miles traveling between Indianapolis, Kansas, Darlington, North Wilkesboro, and Charlotte in pursuit of the Indy/Charlotte double.
After his Vegas victory, the driver of the #5 HendrickCars.com Chevy Camaro found trouble at Texas while leading when his right-rear tire separated itself from the car after an early stage two pit stop.
Dover Downs has been kind to Larson, winning the 2019 fall race on top of 3 stage wins, 899 laps led, and 7 top-5s over 15 starts. Driving for the same team that produced unparalleled success at this track with Jimmie Johnson, Larson is due for another win at the Monster Mile.
Next up is Martin Truex Jr (+600). The New Jersey native made a name for himself at the Cup level here in 2007, flying around the track to score his first win and the last win for Dale Earnhardt Inc. as a whole.
Considered one of Truex’s home tracks, Dover played host to three other triumphs over his 19-year career, including last year’s rain-delayed event where the 2017 champ ran away with the race on the final restart.
Two things seem imminent: 400 miles at one of the series’ most challenging tracks and a monster performance from Martin Truex Jr. For the #19 team’s sake, they hope that monster performance ends with them in victory lane this time.
Speaking of Truex’s missed opportunity, his teammate Denny Hamlin (+750) took the opportunity for himself at Richmond for win #2 of 2024.
Hamlin’s last two races ended on the wrecker, backing his Yahoo! Toyota into the turn 4 wall in Overtime at Texas before getting caught up in the Toyota tangle at Talladega last week.
Nabbing his first victory over Miles the Monster in 2020, the veteran Virginian seeks his third win of the year, and what better place to do that than at one of Marcus Smith’s facilities?
A non-factor last week in Talladega, William Byron (+750) enters this weekend as the Cup Series wins leader after wins at the Daytona 500, Circuit of the Americas, and Martinsville, exemplifying the young driver’s versatility.
The 26-year-old paced the field for 193 laps in last year’s battle with the Monster Mile but settled for a 4th-place result as Truex drove off into the sunset.
Outside of last week, Byron’s #24 Chevy Camaro find themselves in contention at all kinds of tracks, and with the roll he and crew chief Rudy Fugle are on, it should surprise no one if Byron maneuvers his way to another win on Sunday.
Rounding out the top-5 this week in odds is Ross Chastain (+750). The Trackhouse driver/watermelon farmer hybrid slid across the finish line 13th at Dega as his #1 car found itself in the midst of the Big One in the trioval.
Chastain’s strength and car control shine on Dover’s concrete slopes since NASCAR’s implementation of the NextGen car, finishing third in 2022 and second last season.
The #1 car’s latest victory was at the 2023 season finale at Phoenix Raceway, another 1-mile track, and given his track record in Delaware, the Melon Man may finally conquer Miles the Monster.
Writer’s Pick
My pick from last week was Ross Chastain, who finished 13th after entering the trioval for the final time in 5th place.
This week, I’m sticking with the Chevys as I believe Alex Bowman is the next driver to put an end to a winless drought at Dover Downs.
A winner here in 2021, the driver of the #48 Ally Camaro knows how to wrangle his Chevy around this concrete canyon, racking up an impressive five top-5s and 46 stage points since taking over for Dale Jr. in 2018.
Though Bowman has failed to visit this track with current crew chief Blake Harris due to a spinal fracture last season, the Arizona native is hungry for success after going winless and missing the 2023 Playoffs.
The Hendrick driver celebrated his 31st birthday on Thursday, and there’s no better birthday gift than a hard-fought win and a guaranteed postseason berth.
(Top Photo Credit: Times Herald-Record)
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