Bristol Motor Speedway, the Last Great Colloseum.
A screaming pack of motorized chariots descend upon Bristol, Tennessee this Sunday afternoon for a 500-lap around the tight, half-mile concrete complex nestled in the foothills of the Appalachian Mountains for the 60th running of the Food City 500.
Though the track was established in 1961, the stars of the NASCAR Cup Series navigated through the muck, mire, and dust of dirt racing at Bristol over the past three seasons, with Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, and Christopher Bell claiming victories during that time.
The concrete surface returns to spring competition this season to much jubilation from drivers and fans that didn’t necessarily jive with the Bristol Dirt concept, meaning the track will host two concrete points races for the first time since the 2020 season.
Despite a gargantuan seating arrangement that can fill up to 180,000 fans for one race, Bristol remains the second-shortest track on the NASCAR calendar at .533-miles, only larger than Martinsville (.522-miles).
Unlike Martinsville, Bristol’s turns are as steep as the mountains that surround the facility, with variable banking in both turns that goes from 24 degrees at the bottom to 28 degrees up near the wall.
The gradual banking in the turns offers a number of ways for drivers to swing around this speedy short track. If a driver takes the bottom, it is the shortest way around the track, but the momentum carried by cars running the top keeps the cars at a higher speed for longer and tends to be easier on the tires as they age.
NASCAR’s newest aero package that makes appearances at the sport’s shorter facilities won’t be featured this weekend, but after last year’s fall night race was seen as a success by critics and proponents of the NextGen car, there’s little evidence to say the racing product won’t deliver in the Volunteer State.
Last week in sands of Phoenix Raceway, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell capped off a titanic performance with his seventh career Cup Series victory and first of 2024 after rapid cautions at the beginning of the final stage brought tire and fuel strategy into play.
Restarting 20th, Bell threaded his way through the slower traffic on the final restart before taking the lead from teammate Martin Truex Jr. with 41 laps to go and led all the way to the finish, a victory that tasted even sweeter considering the disappointing end to his 2023 season at the same track.
The stars of the NASCAR Cup Series will face the battered banks of Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend, so let’s take a look at the weather they’ll face on Sunday.
The Weather & Fast Facts
The Bristol Dirt Race experienced wet weather on every trip, cloudy days shrouding and saturating the Tennessee clay to make it undrivable.
The race was postponed to Monday for the inaugural event in 2021 and saw an extended weather delay the following year just after halfway through the race. 2023 saw Friday practice get cancelled as well.
Thankfully, the weather on the third Sunday of March tends to be moisture-free. Over the last 10 years, it has only rained once, in 2020, and the forecast this weekend looks to reflect that.
According to Weather Underground, the skies will be grey, leading to a lower track temperature that enhances the grip of the race track, but the cloud cover brings with it weather in the high 50s, peaking at 4pm ET at 59 degrees.
The temperature isn’t supposed to dip below 50 degrees until 9pm ET, so if you’re personally heading to the track, you may want to bring a second layer just in case.
Now that we’ve found the weather, let’s move onto my fast facts:
All stats were calculated from the race summary stats for the past Bristol races featured on Racing Reference.
After seeing a recent spike in the 2020 spring race of 17 cautions, this race tends to average 13 cautions for 98 caution laps. Bristol sees many passes over 500 laps, averaging 2016 passes over the past 10 seasons, and the lead changes hands a moderate 19 times on average.
With the averages on display, let’s move over to see what the oddsmakers are saying.
The Odds
Disclaimer: This is not intended to encourage you, the reader, to make a wager on this race. If you feel you have a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER for support.
Christopher Bell (+525) seeks his second win-in-a-row this weekend in Bristol, and the oddsmakers at BetMGM have a lot of faith in Bell winding up in victory lane this week as well.
Bell put together some solid showings on the dirt in Bristol, earning his fifth career win at Bristol Dirt last season to clinch a Playoff spot. Bell enters the weekend with three stage wins on the concrete surface, and with an average finish of 14.6 in his pavement starts, the Oklahoman seems destined for contention on Sunday.
Right behind him sits teammate Denny Hamlin (+475). The 19-year veteran took home the hardware in last season’s Bass Pro Shops Bristol Night Race, his third triumph in Thunder Valley.
Hamlin lost an opportunity at victory in Phoenix, diving into turn 1 too hard, hitting the left side of Tyler Reddick’s car and dropping way down the running order. Bell might strengthen his resume with a second win in the first five races, but Hamlin wants to punch his own Playoff ticket at the end of 500 laps.
Las Vegas winner Kyle Larson (+525) ranks third in odds, but his performance at Phoenix makes me wary of taking his #5 HendrickCars.com Chevy Camaro.
After a pedestrian qualifying run left him with a 17th-place starting spot, Larson struggled to climb through the field, only managing a 14th-place result. Larson owns a great track record at Bristol, winning in 2021 and earning three stage wins. Larson and crew chief Cliff Daniels need to dial the car in this week to have a chance.
Next up is defending champion Ryan Blaney (+475). The pilot of the #12 Dutch Boy Ford finds himself on a hot streak of three top-5 finishes and returns to a track that he’s been quick at several times in the past.
Blaney has paced the field at Bristol for an impressive 556 laps, but his results haven’t reflected the prowess he’s shown at The Last Great Colosseum. Entering Sunday as the points leader, keep an eye on the #12 car to peek into the top-10 and compete for the win.
Then, there’s Richard Childress Racing’s Kyle Busch (+1200). The nine-time winner is far and away the most dominant driver at Bristol of his era, maybe of all-time, and after a painfully slow run in Phoenix last weekend, the driver better known as Rowdy wants to establish himself as a title threat early in 2024.
The Las Vegas native knows this track like the back of his hand as he’s led the field for an astounding 2592 laps over his Cup career. Even if Busch doesn’t add much to that lap total tomorrow evening, leading the last lap is what matters most to the two-time Cup champion with a Playoff spot on the line.
Other notable odds include: RFK Racing’s Chris Buescher (+3000); multi-time Bristol winner Joey Logano (+1400); Joe Gibbs Racing’s Ty Gibbs (+2500) and Martin Truex Jr. (+2500); and Trackhouse Racing’s Ross Chastain (+2200).
Writer’s Pick
RFK Racing owner-driver Brad Keselowski (+2200) is rapidly approaching a three-year winless drought, his last victory coming at Talladega’s 2021 spring race when he still raced for Roger Penske.
Since purchasing an ownership stake in what was Roush Fenway Racing for the start of the 2022 season, Keselowski’s other driver, Chris Buescher, has visited victory lane four times.
While Keselowski helped raise the performance of Buescher and his own car, it’s been far too long since the 2012 Cup champion has crossed the finish line first, and at a track in Bristol that he’s won at three times.
In order for Brad to fully represent his sponsor King’s Hawaiian, he needs to don the crown as the checkered flag falls, and this weekend presents a golden opportunity for the #6 team.
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