The stars of the NASCAR Cup Series braved the whipping wind currents on the high banks of Las Vegas Motor Speedway with Kyle Larson standing tallest, claiming his first victory of 2024 in dominating fashion.
The 2021 Cup champ stormed to the front early and often, leading a race-high 181 laps and sweeping the stages. For practically the entire day, 23XI’s Tyler Reddick sat firmly in his rearview mirror.
The battle raged into the final laps, Larson’s #5 Chevy being stalked by Reddick’s #45 Nasty Beast Toyota. Reddick creeped to Larson’s back bumper but wasn’t able to get alongside, leading to Larson’s 24th career win.
By the way, Rick Hendrick had a heck of a weekend in Las Vegas.
Spire Motorsports’ driver Rajah Caruth drove his HendrickCars.com Chevy Silverado to the top of the grid in qualifying before following it up with his first career victory on Friday in the Craftsman Truck race before Larson followed it up by parking his HendrickCars.com Chevy Camaro in winner’s circle on Sunday.
Though Larson locking himself into the Playoffs so early is a huge deal, Caruth was the story of the weekend. His win represents just the third by a Black American driver in the top three national series, joining Wendell Scott (1963) and Bubba Wallace (2013).
But enough about history, let’s talk about this coming Sunday at Phoenix Raceway where the stars of the Cup Series wade through the sandy slopes of the Estrella Mountains for Sunday’s Shriner’s Children 500.
The event will be 312 laps of grueling racing on the flat one-mile oval. The turns are sharp, but the amount of ways around them are infinite. The banking starts at eight degrees on the bottom before moving to nine degrees on the high side until reaching the backstretch where the field will drag race into the final set of corners.
Turns 3 & 4 offer variable banking as well, standing at 10 degrees on the bottom and climbing to 11 degrees midway up the banking until reaching the start-finish cactus that opens up to the Dogleg.
Older fans remember the Dogleg as a cute, grassy element, added to the track to give it a little character. Since the reconfiguration in fall 2018, the Dogleg received a major overhaul.
The Dogleg itself went from being flat to an 11 degrees bank, allowing cars to carry more speed into Turn 1. Alternatively, drivers can duck onto the additional pavement on the flat apron where they’ll try to cut some time and distance off their lap to get ahead of the competition.
Because of the Dogleg’s placement, restarts are especially calamitous, allowing drivers to spread out as low as the pit lane wall, but if someone goes super low, they had better know how they’re exiting Turn 2.
With the race weekend approaching, let’s shift the conversation to this weekend’s forecast.
The Weather & Fast Facts
Those familiar and unfamiliar with the Phoenix Valley could tell you that rain is scarce, and the past 10 years indicate that with no rain during the second Sunday in March.
In the last decade, Phoenix Raceway has seen not a single rainy day on the second Sunday in March, averaging a high of 77 degrees and a low of 54 degrees.
Surprisingly, the averages almost directly predicted Sunday’s forecast, a sunny day with the high being 77 degrees alongside a low of 56 degrees, making for a moderately warm day that’ll surely make the “Indianapolis of the West” one tough track to handle.
Drivers will strap in after the command to fire engines in preparation for a 3:30pm ET green flag drop. From there, the drivers will rattle their way through the outskirts of Arizona’s capital, eluding the competition and the dry, desert heat.
The race will be broken up into three stages: Stage 1 – Lap 60, Stage 2 – Lap 185, and Stage 3 – Lap 312 (we can only hope.) My doubt stems from Overtime, something this track has seen four of the last 10 races in the spring.
With any luck, the fans at the track and at home will see more green on the start-finish cactus than yellow or red this week, but this race has gotten hectic in recent years, averaging nearly eight cautions for 46 caution laps.
Atlanta and Daytona feature a style of racing that promotes lead changes, but Phoenix offers a bit more of a patient race, observing the cars that rise and fall throughout the run. 2023 Cup champion Ryan Blaney started 15th in the title race, yet he methodically navigated his way to the championship lead and never looked back.
Because of this, Phoenix races have been labeled boring for a perceived lack of action around the track and its slower pace, even though the Cup Series averages about 1800 green-flag passes per race over the last decade.
With the 3:30pm ET/12:30pm local start time, you should expect to have this race wrapped up by 6:30pm ET or three hours after the race goes green, enough time for fans to leave the track and get home before sundown.
The Odds
Disclaimer: This is not intended to encourage you, the reader, to make a wager on this race. If you feel you have a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER for support.
After 267 laps in Nevada’s most popular tourist trap, the betting favorite Kyle Larson wound up in victory lane. You shouldn’t be surprised to see him entering Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions at second on the BetMGM oddsmaker’s list.
Larson’s (+700) recent record here has been impressive to say the least. His 2021 win in the fall event clinched his maiden Cup crown, but that was merely a culmination of several strong runs at the track.
Over the his last 10 trips to Phoenix, Larson has placed worse than ninth just once, with six of those races featuring him in the top-five by the end of the race. Though his strong performances at the track haven’t produced much hardware, don’t be surprised if you see the #5 crew earning their second straight triumph.
Topping the oddsmaker’s list is Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell (+600). A blistering run in first practice on Friday evening vaulted Bell to the top of the odds.
Entering his fifth season, Bell ended the last two seasons in the Championship race where he has yet to receive the sport’s highest honor, but it’s not like he’s bad here by any stretch.
The Oklahoma native finished in the top-10 in half of his previous eight starts, and he’ll look to exceed his practice run by ending Sunday in victory lane.
Next up is a four-way tie between Ryan Blaney, Ross Chastain, Denny Hamlin, and Joey Logano, all at (+800).
Blaney’s coronation in Phoenix last November capped off a career year, but it also became a cruel reminder that he’s yet to win a race in the 48th state, slotting in right behind Chastain at the finish.
Speaking of Chastain, the Melon Man squashed his doubters at the midnight hour last season. A tumultuous 2023 campaign saw the Trackhouse driver tumble out of the Playoffs in the Round of 12 after only scoring one win through 32 races.
But, Chastain can’t stay out of headlines for too long, sneaking past Blaney before the last caution and leaving him behind as Ross won the race and smashed a watermelon while Blaney celebrated in the background.
Ross finds himself in a unique position this season, being the only Trackhouse car not in the Playoffs, so he’ll look to ride the momentum from last fall to plant his name into the postseason on Sunday afternoon.
Denny Hamlin looked to cruise his way to another top-10 at Phoenix last spring before a late yellow jumbled the pit strategy, putting the #11 Shingrix Toyota in the swarm with just two tires. Instead of trying to race, he decided to take revenge on Chastain by plowing both cars into the wall and ruining their races.
That incident earned Hamlin an invoice from the upper brass of NASCAR and all but squashed his beef with Ross. With that problem in the rearview, Hamlin seems intent on being the first non-Chevy driver to claim a Playoff spot this season by adding a third Phoenix win to his already dazzling résumé.
Finally, we reach Joey Logano. The 2022 Cup champion bookended his second title with his third victory in the desert, and while last year’s performance left much to be desired, Logano and crew chief Paul Wolfe keep bringing fast cars to the track, qualifying in the top-two positions in every race this season.
Logano may not be allowed to bring his catcher’s mitt back to the track anytime soon, but there’s no doubt after his pole in Las Vegas last week that the new #22 Ford Mustang Dark Horse has loads of speed behind it. Now, he just needs to end the day out front and not in the garage.
Other notable racers with higher odds on Sunday are: two-time Cup champ and three-time Phoenix winner Kyle Busch (+2800); Tucson, Arizona native Alex Bowman (+4000); Atlanta winner Daniel Suárez (+10000); 2012 Cup champion Brad Keselowski (+3000); and Front Row Motorsports’ Michael McDowell (+10000).
Writer’s Pick
If you noticed in the previous section, I didn’t talk much about Ryan Blaney even though he is third in odds.
That’s because the reigning Cup champion is my pick to finally exorcise his desert demons to score a victory at the track FOX announcer and former driver Kevin Harvick once mastered.
The #12 team flexes their muscles at this dusty one-mile oval, currently on a streak of five top-fives and three runner-up finishes, including last November where he he got the best seat in the Phoenix Valley to see Ross Chastain notch his second win of the year.
Based on the radio communications revealed during and after that race, Blaney likely holds a big chip on his shoulder going into this weekend, knowing he’s been so close to victory in Maricopa County so many times.
The 10-year Penske veteran narrowly lost in Atlanta and followed it up with a stout performance in Las Vegas last weekend; it’s not like this team is lacking in strong runs.
With the Playoff field solely consisting of Chevys at the moment, Blaney looks to add another trophy to the case on Sunday and punch his ticket to the Playoffs earlier than he ever has in the fourth race of 2024.
(Top Photo Credit: Ivan Veldhuizen Photo)
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