After a grueling week in Daytona for everyone except winner William Byron, the NASCAR Cup Series moves up north to Hampton, Georgia for this weekend’s Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
A repave in 2022 replaced a worn-out surface that looked closer to loose gravel than asphalt, but the surface wasn’t the only change made. The track was completely reconfigured, raising the banking in the turns from 24 degrees up to 28 degrees.
These changes turned “Hotlanta” from the fastest track on the NASCAR calendar to a site of mayhem and destruction as the sport mandates the teams to use the 550-horsepower, high-downforce package to keep the cars bunched up in a pack, much like the racing we saw last week at the Daytona 500.
Since the debut of the new track surface, Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron has claimed two of the four victories at the track with teammate and hometown hero Chase Elliott along with two-time champ Joey Logano collecting victories.
NASCAR’s biggest stars will need to survive 260 laps and 400 miles clustered together like grapes on the vine while moving forward and keeping their noses clean, something that’s easier to say than to execute.
Much like last week, the field must remain patient and use the lessons learned from Daytona to master the art of drafting to weave their way to the front of the field by the time the checkered flag falls Sunday evening.
The Weather
Thankfully, the sport will not need to lose too much sleep over the weather in Georgia this weekend.
Over the last decade, Hampton experienced just two rainy days on the last Sunday in February, coming in 2015 and 2019. The 2019 showers were very brief and in the morning, so they didn’t affect race-day activities.
The average high over the same span is a shade below 65 degrees while the average low is 47 degrees.
This weekend’s forecast in Hampton, Georgia is relatively mild, with a high of 60 degrees, a low of 42 degrees, and a 0% chance of rain on Sunday. There should be clear blue skies with a shining sun to greet the drivers.
The track itself is liable to have a moderate amount of grip in the sunlight with the lower temperatures, so I would not expect drivers to get loose and slide around on their own very much.
With that said, the inaugural race for this reconfiguration featured numerous tire failures, but this should be less of an issue now that the teams know how to adjust their cars for this track.
Under Yellow
In spite of how I normally write these almanacs, I don’t feel it is relevant to include the results, cautions, lead changes, etc., for races before the reconfiguration, so I’m only taking stock of the last two spring races.
The chaotic inaugural race for this layout of Atlanta featured a whopping 13 cautions that saw the field, single-file behind the pace vehicle for 65 of the race’s 325 laps. The 500-mile event saw a hefty amount of lead changes with the top spot being swapped 47 times.
Last year’s edition of the Ambetter Health 400 was a tamer affair with only 20 leaders over the race’s 260 laps alongside five cautions that slowed the field full of roaring machines for 34 laps. The race ended with then-defending Cup champion Joey Logano making a last-lap move on former teammate Brad Keselowski.
Much like last week, I find it difficult to project anything related to the amount of cautions at races like these where the cars are bundled together like gummy worms melted in a bag, so I would just expect a slew of lead changes and some cautions, hopefully not as early as lap six like last week.
The Odds
Disclaimer: This is not intended to encourage you, the reader, to make a wager on this race. If you feel you have a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER for support.
Because so much of this race comes down to luck of the draw, the oddsmakers at BetMGM set their lines this week with 2022 summer Atlanta winner Chase Elliott (+975) at the top of the heap.
The 2020 champion looks to rebound from a tumultuous 2023 season that saw the Hendrick driver miss six races due to injury and another one for intentionally wrecking Denny Hamlin, leading to missing the Playoffs for the first time and his career and logging his first winless season since his sophomore season in 2017.
Overall, the Chevrolet Camaros didn’t show a ton of speed last Monday, but after some questionable superspeedway racing by two Chevys that took out most of the field with less than 10 laps to go, they found a way to get a win for General Motors.
Next up is Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell (+1100), a driver that has earned* two top-fives since the 2022 reconfiguration. Not known for his superspeedway prowess, Bell scored his third top-five on a superspeedway last week at Daytona, once again being stopped short of glory by the all-too-familiar yellow flag.
The Oklahoma native finished third in this very race one year ago, and with a little more drafting experience under his belt, the #20 DeWalt Toyota Camry might find itself in winner’s circle on Sunday evening.
Defending Cup champion Ryan Blaney (+1100) scored four of his 10 career wins thus far by storming to the front of the pack at superspeedway races, and BetMGM expects nothing less from the Team Penske veteran.
Blaney notched his third-consecutive top-10 in Atlanta last summer with a ninth-place result while also being the last springtime winner on the previous configuration. One of the sport’s brightest stars, Blaney intends to get his team into the Playoffs sooner rather than later, and with his past success here, he looks like a solid bet.
Following Blaney is Denny Hamlin (+1200), a driver not too fond of this circuit’s recent changes. His sixth-place run last spring was his only finish better than 14th in Atlanta since the repave. The 19th-year driver out of Chesapeake, Virginia seems to be caught up in someone else’s mess in the Peach State.
That said, Hamlin is a generationally great superspeedway racer with three Daytona 500s and a win at Talladega under his belt, so BetMGM hopes that his skill will prove the difference this weekend.
Rounding out the top-five in odds is Joey Logano. The defending winner of this race, Logano had a mediocre 2023, this race representing his lone win of the season.
Though his luck ran dry in Daytona, the pilot of the #22 Ford Dark Horse Mustang will look to repeat his dominant performance from last year’s race in hopes of kicking off a better 2024 campaign.
Other notable lines include: 2012 Cup champion Brad Keselowski (+1200); two-time winner in Atlanta, William Byron (+1300); Trackhouse Racing’s Ross Chastain (+1800); 23XI teammates Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick (each at +2000); and Daytona 500 outside polesitter Michael McDowell (+4500).
Writer’s Pick
Last week, I chose Todd Gilliland as my sleeper pick, and that prediction proved correct.
Despite not finishing the race, the third-year Front Row Motorsports racer stayed in the front of the field for a majority of the day, showing more speed than teammate Michael McDowell before being caught up in the lap 193 accident that wiped out a majority of the cars running.
This week, my sleeper pick is also my writer’s pick: Monterrey, Mexico’s Daniel Suárez.
The Trackhouse Racing driver has finished sixth or better at Hotlanta in three of the four races on the new layout, and had it not been for the rain falling, he had the opportunity to slip past Byron to steal the win in last year’s summer race.
Not only that, Daniel Suárez is a supremely underrated superspeedway racer. He knows how to drive his way to the front by using the draft, but he finds himself in the garage area towards the end due to others’ mistakes more often than he would like.
To me, that’s the price of being at the front of the crowd in these hectic races. One of these days, the seas will part just right for a driver to get the monkey off of their back.
Suárez’s 2023 campaign was fraught with inconsistency and saw the #99 miss out on victory lane entirely. If he wants to make all of these rumors about getting the boot in favor of other drivers in Trackhouse’s pipeline, a win in Atlanta while the season is still young would absolutely do the trick.
A second victory would do wonders for the #99 team’s confidence, especially if the Freeway Insurance team locks itself into the Playoffs this early into the season.
Everything else after is house money.
(Top Photo Credit: Yahoo Sports)
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