Before diving in, I just wanted to give a quick shoutout to PBP photographer, Dr. Patrick Vallely. Every picture used in this ranking was taken by him, at the track. As you can plainly see, he does a phenomenal job – shoot him a follow on Twitter & Instagram! (@Puffadda)
1) Ryan Blaney
Who else could it be? While I don’t really anticipate he’ll stay in the #1 spot once the season really gets rolling, Blaney was on an absolute heater the last several weeks of the year enroute to his first career championship. It will be interesting to see how the new Cup Series Mustang impacts the performance of not just Blaney, but all Ford teams.
2) Kyle Larson
The driver with the most *raw talent* in the sport couldn’t quite stave off Ryan Blaney’s sheer will in the closing laps of the championship race and had to settle with a runner up points finish. Kyle Larson will be a Championship 4 threat every year for the foreseeable future.
3) William Byron
Willy B is finally here. The 25-year old Byron rode a career year all the way to the Championship 4 where he just didn’t quite have the juice to top his teammate or *potential* future brother in law. After being heralded as the hottest prospect in the sport for multiple years, he has fully arrived as a perennial championship threat.
4) Denny Hamlin
Another year, another great season ruined by playoff heartbreak. He’ll be in the playoffs again next year, and will make another deep run, but for Denny it’s all about executing better in the last few weeks of the year. He says 2024 is his year – let’s see it.
5) Christopher Bell
Two straight Championship 4 appearances shows that Christopher Bell has fully lived up to the lofty expectations he had after a relatively underwhelming start to his Cup career. But to have both of those appearances derailed by mechanical failures has to be heartbreaking, both for Bell and for JGR. Bell has fully arrived as a perennial championship contender – Gibbs just needs to get Phoenix figured out.
6) Tyler Reddick
Moving from RCR to 23XI in 2023, Tyler Reddick had a very successful, albeit at times inconsistent 2023. Yes he picked up two wins and came home a far and away career-best 6th in points, but he also finished outside of the top 20 in 14 races and was involved in some kind of incident in a series leading 46% of races according to Auto Racing Analytics on Twitter. If he can clean that up, he’s a legit title contender in 2024
7) Bubba Wallace
This is my first “controversial” ranking, so I’m just going to call my shot here: I have Bubba Wallace winning at least two races and making the Round of 8 in 2024. The 23 team showed great speed throughout the entire playoffs, and were one uncharacteristically poor finish at Talladega away from making the Round of 8. Bubba came home a career-best 10th in points this year after sneaking into the last playoff spot, but in order for this bunch to improve it’s about executing better in the clutch and strategizing better throughout the races.
8) Ross Chastain
Compared to 2022, 2023 was a bit of a down year for Chastain and Trackhouse as a whole – but they showed at Phoenix that they still have the juice, closing out the season with an emphatic win. He also displayed a more measured, sustainable racecraft in 2023 that proved to his competitors that he can race respectfully. I’m expecting a really solid, multi-win season for Chastain in 2024.
9) Chase Elliott
It was a bad year for the sport’s most popular driver. A broken leg, a suspension, no playoff berth, and a winless season – yikes! But fear not Elliott fans, Bill’s son will almost assuredly rebound and win multiple races in 2024. But it may take a while as he’ll probably enter the year pushing a bit harder than usual to get the monkey off his back.
10) Chris Buescher
It was a dream season for Buescher that proved that any reports of RFK Racing’s death were greatly exaggerated. It was a pretty typical start for the 17 squad through the first 20 races, but Buescher caught fire in the last third of the season, winning three of the last 15 races, including two in a row at Richmond & Michigan. While he cooled off a bit in the playoffs en route to a career-best 7th in points, this was a proper coming out year for both Buescher and a rejuvenated RFK.
11) Martin Truex Jr.
The regular season champion had an absolutely miserable playoffs. After winning three races and collecting 15 top-10’s, Truex was eliminated in the round of 12 after recording no finishes higher than 17th in the first two rounds. Rumors, as usual, are swirling about whether 2024 could be Truex’s final season. If it is, he’ll look to finish stronger.
12) Brad Keselowski
The driving force behind the revitalization of RFK Racing, team co-owner Brad Keselowski had a revitalization of his own in 2023. After a miserable 2022 that saw him only collect six top-10’s and finish 24th in points – the worst mark since his rookie year – Keselowski scored sixteen top-10’s and easily made the playoffs on points. While he was knocked out in the round of 12, BK proved that he is still an elite-level talent. Now, they need to continue building the program at RFK so they can be a threat every week.
13) Kyle Busch
2023 started off great for Kyle Busch, taking advantage of his new digs at RCR to win three of the first 15 races. But things slowed way down for Busch over the last third of the season, as he stumbled through the playoffs and was eliminated in the Round of 12. If Busch and RCR can recapture their early season performance in 2024, he’ll fly up these rankings. But if the late season woes drag into next year, it could get ugly.
14) Joey Logano
After his championship in 2022, Logano had a pretty forgettable 2023, winning only one race at Atlanta and being eliminated in the Round of 16. I would say his middling performance is more on Penske and Ford than Logano himself, as if it weren’t for Blaney’s miracle run 2023 would have been the worst year in Penske’s recent history. He’ll bounce back in 2024.
15) Ty Gibbs
JGR team owner Joe Gibbs’ grandson was able to put together a pretty solid rookie campaign. Solid enough that I absolutely have him making the playoffs and competing for a win or two in 2024. His biggest problem was on-track incidents, as he was tied with Tyler Reddick for the series lead for percentage of races with an incident at 46%. If he can clean things up, he’s a contender for years to come.
16) Alex Bowman
While Alex Bowman’s contract extension will keep him with the team through 2026, if he doesn’t step it up this season one has to wonder if he’ll get another. The seven-time Cup winner failed to win a race in 2023, and failed to make the playoffs due in large part to missing three races with an injury. Bowman has only won one race in the last two seasons, and has only picked up one top-10 points finish in his career – 6th in 2020. That’s not good enough in elite level equipment.
17) Michael McDowell
One of the big surprises of 2023, Michael McDowell made his second career playoff appearance thanks to his improbable win at the Indianapolis Road Course. Well… I say improbable, but was it really? McDowell has proven to be one of the elite road course talents in the series, and FRM seems to keep stepping up their game since their 2021 Daytona 500 victory. McDowell is officially in dark horse territory.
18) Daniel Suarez
After picking up his first win and finishing 10th in points in 2022, expectations were reasonably high for Suarez in 2023. While he showed flashes, he did not live up to the hype, failing to win a race, missing the playoffs, and ending up 19th in points. He’s also the only Cup Series driver to block me on Twitter, so there’s that. He’ll be a fringe contender in 2024, likely hanging out around the playoff bubble.
19) Erik Jones
After his 2022 season, Erik Jones was one of the hottest names in the Series in terms of darkhorse contenders. Unfortunately, Jones and LMC didn’t live up to the hype, picking up only seven top-10’s. They were also assessed a L1 penalty which dropped him all the way to 27th in points. As LMC moves to Toyota in 2024, I would expect a jump in performance, albeit not an instantaneous one – these things have proven to take time in the past.
20) Josh Berry
One of the biggest unknowns of 2024 is how SHR will fare with the departure of Series legend and team cornerstone Kevin Harvick. Additionally, who will be the lead dog at SHR? Will it be Berry since he is directly taking over for Harvick? Will it be Chase Briscoe, the team’s longest tenured driver and Tony Stewart’s protégé? Or will it be Ryan Preece, the wildly talented modified ringer? My money is on Berry, even after a largely underwhelming year in the Xfinity Series. He has undeniable talent, and if Dale Jr says you belong, then you belong.
21) Chase Briscoe
On the topic of the lead dog at SHR though, regardless of who it ultimately is I think it will be close between Berry and Briscoe. He showed some real flashes in2023, collecting four top-5’s and four more top-10’s. While an L1 penalty dropped him all the way to 30th in points, I think SHR will put their weight behind Briscoe with a bit more enthusiasm now that Harvick is gone – they really need to buy into and develop this kid.
22) Ryan Preece
The modified star struggled at times, especially early in the year, but picked up a couple top-10’s late in the year and showed more speed the more comfortable he got – I think that growth will continue in his second full season with the team. SHR as a whole needs to improve in a big way. They’ve been riding Kevin Harvick for too long – it’s time to see what they do without the superstar.
23) Austin Dillon
Another year, another mid-tier season for the driver of the #3 car. Austin Dillon led the Cup Series in DNF’s this year, and was assessed a L1 penalty early in the year, both of which plummeted him to a career worst 29th place finish in points. On top of that, he only managed to collect seven top-10’s to soften the blow. I would expect more of what we’ve been seeing from Austin Dillon in 2024 – no real improvement, mostly middling results, and maybe some random Mickey Mouse win that allows him to take up a playoff spot.
24) Austin Cindric
2023 was a pretty big step backwards for the Series’ tallest driver. After winning the Daytona 500 and picking up four more top-5’s in his rookie year, Cindric regressed in a big way in 2023, collecting only five top-10’s, one top-5, and no wins. He fell from 12th in points in year one to 24th in year two. He’ll need to rebound in a big way this year, as he’s far and away the weakest link at Penske right now.
25) John Hunter Nemechek
I have pretty high expectations here. The #42 was miserable with Noah Gragson behind the wheel, but showed speed late in the season when Carson Hocevar jumped in. JHN is a proven talent with Cup experience, coming off of three straight very good seasons in Trucks & Xfinity. I think he will surprise some people and put together a very solid year.
26) Daniel Hemric
Speaking of drivers I think will surprise people, I really think Daniel Hemric will have a solid year in his return to Cup action. I don’t necessarily expect him to compete for wins, but I think he will pretty regularly be right around the top-10. To me, it’s about Kaulig as a whole matching their Xfinity performance in the Cup Series. Their equipment just doesn’t seem to be where it needs to be.
27) Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
A surprise playoff participant by virtue of his Daytona 500 win, Stenhouse had a decent year in 2023. Beyond his win, he picked up eight more top-10’s, but was pretty much a non-factor in the playoffs as expected. JTG continues to be a team that can jump out and surprise you every once in a while, and Stenhouse is one of the best (albeit one of the wildest) superspeedway racers in the Series. Don’t be surprised if he makes another round of 16 cameo in 2024.
28) Kaulig #16 car
If it ends up going back to Allmendinger, this one would probably jump up to about the 20th spot. But given the uncertainty (and given that Ty Dillon is currently the favorite for this seat according to multiple sources), 2024 is likely to be a tough year for Kaulig on the Cup side. On the bright side, if Allmendinger gets bumped down to Xfinity, he’s immediately a Championship favorite – so that’s fun!
29) Corey LaJoie
LaJoie is one of those guys that we keep waiting on to “break out”, but it still hasn’t quite happened. He picked up two top-5’s and a top-10 in 2023, proving in the process to be one of the better superspeedway racers in the series. He also showed pretty remarkable consistency, picking up 18 top-20’s and zero DNF’s. Spire just needs to continue improving. Let’s see what moving to a two car operation does for them.
30) SHR #10 Car
I’ll be honest, I have no real idea what to expect here. Aric Almirola was never really able to drive the #10 car to anything other than mid-pack results, and with rumors swirling about Noah Gragson as the lead candidate for this ride – one of the most unimpressive drivers in the 2023 field before getting #cancelled – SHR’s disaster class 2023 really looks like it’s going to bleed over into 2024.
31) Zane Smith
Driving a third “development” car for Spire before moving to Trackhouse full-time, I don’t anticipate much in the way of results in 2024 for Zane. But he is one of the sports hottest prospects with proven results in the Truck Series, and already has a Cup Series top-10 under his belt, so who knows what kind of secret sauce the #71 car is going to get from their technical alliance with Trackhouse.
32) Todd Gilliland
2023 turned into something of a make-or-break year for Todd Gilliland, as he was unceremoniously bumped from the 38 car to allow FRM prospect Zane Smith to get some seat time, presumably with the plan of finding him a full-time spot in 2024. Gilliland responded, putting up a solid year (at least for a second FRM car) with four top-10’s, doubling his total from 2022. Now that FRM’s presumed plans for Zane Smith have fallen through, Gilliland should have a bit less pressure moving forward. That said… he’s still just in a second FRM car. Can’t do too much with that.
33) Carson Hocevar
Say what you want about his racecraft, Hocevar proved he can wheel it in his limited opportunities in the #42 car, picking up five top-20’s in a car that only finished there three other times in 2023. He takes something of a step back in terms of equipment jumping to a second Spire car, but that’s a program on the rise, seemingly dedicated to improvement. I’ll be curious to see what he can do.
34) Justin Haley
Until they prove otherwise, I have no reason to believe that Rick Ware Racing, regardless of who they have behind the wheel, will be particularly competitive. I hope they prove me wrong – more competitive teams is good for the sport – but I have serious doubts. As for Haley specifically, outside of the Chicago Road Course he only had a few proper good runs. But, he kept the cars cleaner than anyone else in the Series and is still only 24 entering his 4th full-time season. He’s a good pick to build a team around from the ground up.
35) Harrison Burton
How far Wood Brothers Racing has fallen. After making the playoffs on points in 2020, and just missing in 2021, the team enlisted the services of highly-touted prospect Harrison Burton. He had a rough rookie campaign, but there was hope he would take a step forward in 2023. He did not – in fact, he seemingly regressed. On the year he collected only two top-10’s, and finished outside of the top-20 a staggering 24 times – an unacceptable figure for a Penske affiliated team. He’ll be returning to WBR in 2024, but this should be viewed as a make or break year for him.
36) RWR #15 car
If RWR is actually as serious about trying to improve as they claim to be, their pick here matters. My opinion? Just slap Ryan Newman in there for one more full time season and call it a day – us late-20 something fans would appreciate having one last stalwart of our childhoods still in the series after Harvick’s departure. Not to mention, a solid veteran like Newman would be helpful from a competition standpoint. They’ll probably just end up cobbling together a group of part-time drivers in this spot though – which is fine, I guess.
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