The time is now to solidify your legacy. Four drivers head into the dash in the desert to compete for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship on Sunday afternoon.
The most decorated of this group is Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson. After adding his name to the Southern 500 winlist, the 2021 Cup champion looks to become just the third active driver to win multiple titles, joining Joey Logano and Kyle Busch.
His teammate, William Byron, has piloted that familiar #24 Chevy to a title berth via points in the Round of 8. Byron has been a threat on most weekends in 2023, so he hopes to take the #24 to immortality again this weekend.
Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney rode a dominating win at the World 600 in May into the Playoffs. The Mooresville native added victories at Talladega and Martinsville to his résumé to keep his title hopes afloat. Searching for his first title, Blaney could give Roger Penske two straight championships.
Lastly, there is Joe Gibbs Racing driver, Christopher Bell. After years of the #20 car playing musical chairs with TRD prospects, Bell has established himself as a true contender in the postseason, locking himself into the title race two years running by snatching a Round of 8 win.
While those drivers face the most pressure, 2014 champion Kevin Harvick should be the most relaxed person in the State of Arizona. The SHR veteran closes out his career at the track where he holds practically every NASCAR record.
First winning here in the Truck Series in 2001, Harvick claimed his first Xfinity Series win at the one-mile facility the night before holding off Tony Stewart to earn his first Cup win of 2006 the following night.
Since then, Harvick has held off challenges of Johnson, Earnhardt Jr, Stewart, Hamlin, Truex, Kyle Busch, and most notably, Carl Edwards to score a mind-boggling nine Cup Series wins at Phoenix Raceway, one Xfinity win, and a pair of Truck wins and looking to end his career on a high note after barely losing out on a late-race restart in the spring.
Having finished inside the top-10 in all of the last 20 races at Phoenix, Happy Harvick has the opportunity to get his 61st Cup Series trophy this weekend and enter the Fox Booth in 2024 as a winner.
The track Harvick has understood better than anyone is a D-shaped one-mile oval featuring a banked dogleg that takes drivers down the hill into the 8-9° progressive banking in turns 1 and 2. The field will then progress down the backstretch with a narrow entry into the slightly higher banks of turns 3 and 4 before emptying out at the finish line on the exit of turn 4.
Over the last 10 fall races, Phoenix Raceway averaged seven cautions for 44 caution laps, numbers that have been elevated in the era of stage racing. The fall race usually features nearly 13 lead changes with the final caution of the race taking place right around lap 280.
Passing has been a big conversation since the implementation of the NextGen car, but contrary to popular belief, the NextGen has performed rather well at Phoenix compared to the Gen6.
2020’s race featured the most green-flag passes with 2641, but the previous six fall races couldn’t break 1400. Last year’s race was only the third race over 2000 green-flag passes, with this season’s spring race finishing a shade below 2600 green-flag passes. This race lasts about three hours on average, normally on the lower side.
Weather hardly plays a factor at Phoenix, but it is important to note that it rained here in 2015, leading to an early ending, and 2020 where there were sprinkles on Rattlesnake Hill. That said, today’s forecast stretches from a low of 58°F all the way to a scorching 92°F, the hottest day this track has seen in the last 10 years.
As for the Championship 4 drivers, Blaney holds the best average finish at 10.6 over seven races while Byron’s 11.6 in his five starts narrowly beats out Larson’s at 11.8 and Bell’s at 12.0.
Larson and his team’s experience over the competitors will be interesting to follow. Some years championship experience makes a difference but not in others. For instance, Larson beat two former champions, Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr, to claim his first title two years ago.
Blaney and the #12 crew appear to be the favorites this weekend after claiming their first Martinsville grandfather clock last weekend after years of elite performance at the world’s tightest paperclip. With a pair of runner-up finishes in the last few races at Phoenix, Blaney might just come through for a long-awaited victory yet again.
Byron and Bell have kept up their pace throughout these Playoffs, but consistency doesn’t win championships in the NASCAR Cup Series. They have to go out and win at a track that neither of them have been remarkable at in Phoenix’s fall races in the past.
Historical team performance might not come into play today, but Joe Gibbs Racing won every November Phoenix race from 2016-19. Hendrick Motorsports have snagged two of the last three fall races while Team Penske has the only NextGen title, leaving no teams with much of an advantage strategically over the others.
Except, that’s what one would think.
Of the 10 title races under this format, 2023 marks the fifth time that teammates have competed in the final race, and among them are only two champions: Kyle Busch in 2019 and Larson in 2021. This is a tad misleading as Busch had only one non-teammate (Harvick) in the finale while Larson and Elliott battled two teammates from JGR.
This means that the only times this has proven successful for a team with multiple entries are outliers. In 2019, JGR had a statistical likelihood of winning, and a team with two entries was due to win regardless in 2021.
Blaney and Bell not only don’t have a teammate to contend with; they are the only representatives from Ford (who is 2/2 on titles this weekend) and Toyota, respectively. With all of Ford’s and Toyota’s resources invested in the #12 and the #20, Larson and Byron face an uphill battle racing against them.
This writer’s pick is Ryan Blaney. Even if the hot hand has not mattered in the other lower series, Blaney’s sterling averages here and overall performance on short tracks are too good to ignore. The ninth-year driver looks more dialed in than ever before, and it may finally be his year to prove Kyle Petty wrong and match potential with performance.
And finally, a personal note from the writer.
Ever since I can remember, Kevin Harvick has been part of NASCAR but an especially big part for me. My first positive NASCAR memory was seeing him beat Jeff Gordon in Atlanta back in March 2001, and I have been a diehard fan of his since.
Through the low years in the late 2000s and the unmatchable highs of winning the Daytona 500 and earning a title, I’ve stuck by his side no matter what good or bad decisions he’s made. I always wear my #4 and #29 gear proudly when I go to the race track; today is the last time.
As someone that has been on location for Phoenix this weekend, it’s been great seeing you in the garage, actually looking excited to get into your car. It’s been hard to see you be so upset after your final races at some of your best tracks.
But, Rodney gave you one final hot rod for your final time at your best track. Standing in your garage with tons of other people like me when we saw the #4 at the top of the board yesterday was a moment I’ll never forget.
You’ve given the fans 23 seasons of moments and achievements we will remember for the rest of our times as fans of the sport. You’re the last of the old guard to move on entirely, the last full-time Winston Cup Series driver. Sure, Jimmie and Newman come back every now and then, but since your suspension in 2002 at Martinsville, you haven’t missed a race.
You finished more races on the lead lap than anyone in history, proving your grit and determination even when the car couldn’t give you what you needed to compete.
There are so many things to say about you, but I’ll save those for when the desert dust settles this evening. You are one of the best to ever do it, and I’m sure the Intimidator would be proud with how you’ve carried yourself and all the records you’ve achieved over the past two decades.
Maybe the lights aren’t as bright as they were in a media center in the middle of February in 2001, but they’re warmer than they’ve ever been.
You’ve got one more race, 312 laps around your best track remaining. I don’t care if we win, crash, or blow up. I just hope Happy closes out his career having a lot of fun.
I am blessed and honored to see you race here today, and we’ll have plenty to celebrate after the final checkers fall this evening. Be nice to Rodney and Tim today, and hopefully, we might be able to see you score #61 in your swan song race.
Thank you, Kevin Harvick. 4everything.
Sincerely,
Your fan 4ever
(Top Photo: Kevin Harvick celebrates his 2014 win at Phoenix that locked him into the championship race at Homestead where he went on to win his lone Cup Series title. Credit: Sean Gardner)
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