The Charlotte Roval is perhaps the toughest track on the NASCAR calendar.
The 2.28mi road course takes a sharp left at the Tums’ Heartburn Turn and into a hilly infield featuring four consecutive right-hand turns before two lefts see the field empty out onto the banking of Oval Turn 1.
After building momentum on the banking of the oval, cars shoot down the straightaway into the hard braking zone of Turn 11 where mayhem is not far behind.
A left-hander drags the field back onto the oval for the last set of banked corners, leading back to a frontstretch detour through the harsh chicane (with its vicious kerbs) before throwing drivers back across the finish line.
With 12 drivers still in the mix for the Cup Series crown, 6 of them look to etch their names alongside William Byron and Ryan Blaney at the top of the leaderboard leaving the Queen City for the Round of 8.
The Weather
The second Sunday in October is fond of moisture with 6 of the last 10 years featuring rainfall. Only two of those rainy days experienced prolonged periods of rain, so even when the skies open up, they’re liable to close.
The average high for this weekend over the last decade hovers around 74°F with the low averaging out to 53°F. What usually shapes up into a warmer weekend this time of year will not be the case this year, with the forecast calling for a high of 64°F and a chilling low of 41°F.
This could limit passing as tracks naturally gain grip under cooler temperatures, so if you’re someone who participates in games of skill, I would not recommend taking the over on passes made.
The good news? The Roval has not seen rain since 2020’s race weekend (where it came down in buckets), and this weekend should be similar, projecting to have minimal cloud cover and 1% chance of precipitation.
Knock on wood, but for readers headed to the track on Sunday, the weather should cooperate and not require an emergency hotel booking or breaking out the dollar-store ponchos.
Team Performance
For lack of a better way of saying it, Rick Hendrick and Chad Knaus own the Charlotte Roval.
The team brought home trophies in three straight seasons from 2019-21, and when they didn’t find themselves in victory lane, they were brutally robbed of glory in the waning moments of the race.
All four of Hendrick Motorsports’ drivers have a top-2 finish at the track, including back-to-back wins from Chase Elliott in 2019-20 and stablemate Kyle Larson nabbing a win of his own in 2021.
A sneaky team to keep an eye on is Team Penske. Ryan Blaney won the inaugural event in 2018 and boasts a record 55 stage points at the track while teammate Joey Logano adds 49 stage points of his own.
With Blaney and Logano racing with no pressure, the Penske fleet might be at full sound on Sunday with road racing enthusiast Austin Cindric primed for a good run at the treacherous course.
The Race
The yellow flag has become an awfully familiar sight in the five years since the Roval was added to the NASCAR schedule with only one race having less than eight total cautions.
Surprisingly enough, the Charlotte Roval seems to be the only place on the NASCAR calendar that cleans up accidents in an efficient and timely manner. This reflects in the 2019 event where the field saw the yellow lights flash 10 different times for just a measly 23 laps total. They even finished in regulation that day!
Last year’s event showcased the most even-keel Roval race to date for the first 100 laps. The lead changed hands just 10 times, but chaos and calamity infiltrated the field in the final 10 laps, bringing out the very first instance of the Cup Series going to Overtime at this course.
The 2020 event saw the most lead changes with 17, but its successor saw the most green-flag passing of any trip to the Charlotte infield with a whooping 3197 passes. Normally, this section would include a Lap of Last Caution entry; every race took its last yellow within the last 10 laps.
On average, fans should expect a race close to 3 hours and 10 minutes in length. Red flags aren’t out of the question, especially with the Tums’ Heartburn Turn consisting of mostly tires. If we have a moment on Sunday like the original race, prepare for an even longer broadcast.
With the off-kilter layout of this track, passing opportunities are abundant as missing corner entry in these heavy stock cars happens several times throughout the field every lap, so passing shouldn’t come as much of a challenge like it did at Sonoma, Indy RC, and Watkins Glen earlier this season.
Driver Performance
Bristol trimmed the Playoff field down to 12 for this round by shedding 2014 champion Kevin Harvick, defending champion Joey Logano, Daytona 500 winner Ricky Stenhouse Jr, and Michael McDowell.
Texas and Talladega mixed the remaining contenders up with 23XI teammates Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace below the cutline alongside Ross Chastain and two-time champion Kyle Busch.
Reddick boasts the best average finish in the Cup Series at the Charlotte Roval with a staggering 7.3 in his three starts at the track. Since he finds himself only two points below the cutline, Reddick appears to be in good shape to advance if he puts together a routine run for his standards.
Wallace is not known for his road racing prowess, but he has two straight top-15s at the Roval. It might be a tall order for Bubba to outpace his competition, especially considering all but one of them have scored victories on a track with left and right turns. This is the Roval, though. Every corner offers a chance for mistakes.
Chastain’s early exit at Talladega wiped away a runner-up result at Texas, leaving the Trackhouse racer 11 points off the cutline. Despite a career 26.2 average finish at the Roval, mechanical issues got in the way of the Melon Man earning a positive result last season, so he will need to prioritize stage points this weekend.
Finally, there is Kyle Busch. The Las Vegas native kept his car up front early at both races this round before accidents derailed his efforts. Kyle’s first few trips to the infield road course bore little fruit, but he comes into the event with two straight top-10s here.
Rowdy is in a virtual must-win situation, yet if enough drivers have misfortune, there’s a path for him to advance on points if he grabs enough stage points to bridge the 26 point gap.
As for the remaining six drivers in danger, Denny Hamlin sits 48 points above the cutline. Behind him, every other spot is up for grabs.
Defending winner Christopher Bell averages an 11th-place finish at the Roval, but his inconsistency in these playoffs makes it hard to believe he’s a lock for the next round.
Three points behind Bell is Chris Buescher. Having a career year, Buescher excels at tracks with left and right turns, and the Roval is no different with the Prosper, Texas native scoring two straight top-10s at the track.
Regular season champion Martin Truex Jr. lacks the advantage that comes with being a regular season champion, scoring not a single top-15 finish in the postseason thus far. The 2017 champ faces his biggest test this weekend where he is in desperate need of a decent run. Not a good run, just a decent run.
Two former champions, Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski, stand as the last two drivers currently in on points. Larson is a past winner at the Roval while Keselowski has scored just one top-10 at the track.
Drivers I Trust: Logano, Harvick, Reddick, Blaney. Harvick has the lowest average finish in this group with 11.6, but all four of these drivers gathered tons of stage points in previous Roval starts.
Drivers I Don’t Trust: Truex, Keselowski, Chastain, Hamlin. The #11 team has nothing to race for, so I expect Hamlin to take it easy while the other three drivers have found little to no success in the Charlotte infield.
Conclusions
The Roval’s inclusion in the Playoffs has given the sport a number of iconic moments, and I have reason to believe it will deliver again this weekend.
The remaining field of 10 drivers will vie for the 6 Playoff spots on offer under clear blue skies with not a drop of rain in the forecast.
Strategy calls will dominate the day as some drivers need to stay on track to salvage stage points while others are simply there to grab a trophy.
I fear that the new road course package will continue to disappoint, but I believe the Roval is one course where the dirty air won’t impede trailing cars from passing.
A great team’s title run will undoubtedly end after the checkered flag falls; it’s just a matter of whom and when.
(Top photo: Chase Elliott celebrates his remarkable 2019 victory at the Charlotte Roval. HHP/Garry Feller Photo)
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