With the biggest elimination race of the NASCAR Cup Series season upon us, every fan should go into the race properly educated on what could happen this weekend at the last great coliseum.
The piece ahead is a compilation of statistics over the last 10 Bristol night races to give race fans of all kinds the ultimate idea of the race that they should expect to see on Saturday night.
Without any further ado, here is the Bristol Night Race Almanac.
Weather
One of the biggest stories of 2023 has been Mother Nature raining on NASCAR’s parade. Precipitation swept through six different race weekends this season, affecting the outcomes of those races in various ways.
In the last decade, Bristol, TN faced crying skies on the third weekend of September only once, all the way back in 2013. This isn’t to say it won’t rain, but historically speaking, weather is highly unlikely to play a factor in Thunder Valley this weekend.
The average high and low temperatures for the third Saturday in September come out to 81°F and 58°F. The Weather Channel’s most recent forecast for Saturday includes a high of 79°F and a low of 62°F, but the predicted weather for that day has changed significantly throughout the week.
On Tuesday, rain was not projected to fall until Sunday morning, long after the points would be decided; now, the Cup Series field faces an uncertain evening with a 59% chance of rain in the morning and afternoon before turning into a 70% chance of rain by nightfall.
Mother Nature maintains her fickle image in NASCAR, and she might just grab headlines again very soon.
Team Performance
NASCAR saw a record fall this postseason with a whopping 10 teams making up the 16-team playoff grid.
Five different race teams claimed victories at the Bristol high banks since 2013. Joe Gibbs Racing and Stewart-Haas Racing scored three wins apiece while Penske has two, and RFK and Hendrick winning one each.
JGR’s most recent victory at Bristol was with Denny Hamlin in 2019 with SHR’s most recent Bristol win came the following year with Kevin Harvick. Penske has failed to reach winner’s circle since Joey Logano’s wins in 2014 and 2015, and Hendrick and RFK grabbed the 2021 and 2022 night races, respectively.
Ford teams have five Bristol night race wins in the last 10 events, so conventional wisdom says that a blue oval will bring home the trophy and oversized check.
The Race
Here are some fun statistics to look over before the race.
- Green flag passes: 2121
2019’s edition of the race saw the least amount of green-flag passes with just 1653. To my surprise, the much-maligned 2022 race featured the most green-flag passes with 2690.
- Cautions: 9 cautions for 71 laps
The 2020 Bass Pro Shops Night Race avoided much calamity with only three natural cautions occurring, but 2014 produced 12 cautions while 2016’s race ran 106 laps under yellow, partially due to rain.
- Time of Race: 2hr58min
Again, the 2016 race took the longest to complete due to the rain that fell, extending the time elapsed to 3 hours and 25 minutes. In contrast, the previous year’s event ended at a shade over 2 hours and 45 minutes.
- Race speed: 90.975mph
Borrowing from the previous category, 2016’s rain-altered event slowed the race pace down to a putrid 77.97mph in contrast to 2015 where the quickest pace in the last decade was set at 96.9mph.
- Lead changes: 18
In what has been a notorious aspect of NASCAR’s NextGen car, the 2022 running saw the least passes for the lead with just 12 in 500 laps; the 2019 and 2021 races nearly doubled 2022’s results with 23.
- Average Lap of Final Caution: 427
A number of Xfinity Series races extended their finish via Overtime, but astonishingly enough, the Cup Series saw the checkered flag in Bristol at the scheduled distance in each of the last 10 night races. The longest run to the finish was 154 laps in 2016, and the latest the final caution waved was lap 483 in 2018.
Driver Performance
Below is a grid of all 16 Playoff drivers and their average finish at the last 10 Bristol night races:
A few aspects on this graph stick out to me, in particular two drivers. Joey Logano averages a top-10 at the Bristol Night Race over the last decade alongside back-to-back wins in this event in 2014 and 2015. Kevin Harvick is the only other driver to win this race twice, in a Chevy in 2016 and in a Ford in 2020.
The other driver that sticks out to me is Martin Truex Jr, for all the wrong reasons.
In Truex’s last 10 night trips to the World’s Fastest Half-Mile, the 2017 champion has failed to post a single top-10 and carries a dismal 23.7 average finish, only beaten out by Bubba Wallace (23.8 in five starts) and Michael McDowell (25.7 in 10 starts).
The issue is that both of those drivers have been in underfunded equipment for much of their careers while Truex has been in title-contending rides since at least 2016. It would be a herculean effort from the #19 team to find speed at a track that doesn’t fit its driver’s skillset.
Ryan Blaney remains above the cutline, but the #12 car must stay on the race track if they want to advance. Last year cannot be replicated or else they will be eliminated.
Drivers I Trust: Logano, Larson, Harvick, Buescher. If any of these four drivers have a solid car, they will absolutely get a good finish on Saturday night (or whenever the race finishes.)
Drivers I Don’t Trust: Chastain, Truex, McDowell, Byron. The #1 car has been the most inconsistent team in the garage. If Trackhouse doesn’t show speed, they’ll be eliminated. Both Truex and McDowell have an awful record at Bristol, and Byron struggled for speed at Darlington and Kansas. They can’t afford to go a lap down.
Conclusion
Last year’s race pushed the expectation bar through the floor, so it’s possible the Cup Series can put on a good show this year with all of the adjustments made to the NextGen car.
Short tracks have shown glimpses of being just as bad or similarly awful as the 2022 short track schedule. I’ll keep in an open mind though I’m not expecting much.
A lot of how this race will turn out is down to PJ1 traction compound application. Most Bristol races that have a strong bottom line and a strong top line that produces the widest track and best racing.
We’ve seen tempers flare in the smoldering bed of coals that’s known as pit road. I expect this to be no different this week, especially with playoff spots on the line.
Finding the limit last season at Bristol proved difficult, but with an extra year of data in the crew chiefs’ pockets, I imagine most drivers will know how to move someone and when to move them.
It’s certainly a (frustrating) development in the weather department, yet forecasts are ever-evolving throughout the day. Hopefully for everyone’s sake, this race goes the distance on Saturday night.
Enjoy the race and thanks for reading!
(Cover Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images)
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