With the conclusion of the regular season last weekend at Daytona, all eyes now turn towards the playoffs, and the 16 drivers who will fight for the championship in the upcoming 10 weeks. And so with the first playoff race at Darlington on the horizon, I figured we would go through some of the contenders and analyze who goes big and who goes home.
- Martin Truex Jr: Tied for 1st in points
Let’s start with our regular season champion. From missing the playoffs entirely one year ago to leading the way in 2023, it’s amazing what a reset can do for the 2017 champion. With 3 wins on the year, the JGR driver is clearly favored to run deep into the playoffs, and maybe even capture the second championship that has eluded him for the past 6 years.
- William Byron: Tied for 1st in points
Equally favored for the championship is the driver of the Hendrick #24. William Byron has had a breakout year in 2023, holding 5 wins and leading all the Hendrick drivers in the points. With earlier wins at Las Vegas and Phoenix, two pivotal tracks for the championship, Byron and the Hendrick team are set to shoot for the stars and maybe emerge with the first title for the #24 since 2001.
3. Chris Buescher: 4th in points
I don’t think anybody expected this. A win at Bristol last year certainly raised the profile of the driver from Prosper, Texas, but nobody pegged Buescher to be a championship contender in 2023. Three wins during the run into the playoffs certainly put Buescher and RFK on the map in a big way. With Bristol in the first round and Talladega in the second, look for Buescher to make a deep run into the playoffs. And don’t be too surprised if the #17 makes an appearance at Phoenix either.
4. Kyle Busch: 5th in points
Many were concerned that after he parted ways from JGR Busch would struggle, but that has not been the case. A win to open up the season at Auto Club told everyone that Kyle Busch is still in top form. Two follow up wins at Talladega and Gateway further cemented Busch’s place in the playoffs. The Childress outfit has struggled for speed recently, but with Busch behind the wheel, the #8 car is bound to run well once the playoffs begin.
5. Christopher Bell: 7th in points
Norman, Oklahoma’s Christopher Bell won the Bristol Dirt Race earlier in the year, and then went through a pretty dry summer stretch. The #20 team had the speed but couldn’t seem to put it all together. However, Bell is definitely a driver to keep an eye on in the postseason. Twice last year his back was against the wall and both times he showed up by winning a race. If the #20 gets backed into a corner at anypoint in the playoffs, look out for Bell to score another walk-off win.
6. Ross Chastain: 8th in points
After earning vice-champion in ‘22, Ross Chastain and Trackhouse looked to repeat the success they experienced in their sophomore year. Unfortunately that didn’t happen. Chastain impressed earlier in the year but his on-track antics made more headlines than his successes. A stretch of sloppy races combined with weeks of missing speed relegated the #1 to 8th place in the standings. Chastain is still a force to be reckoned with but Trackhouse lately has been lacking consistent speed. If they can’t find pace for the next few races, Chastain may not return to the highs of 2022.
7. Brad Keselowski: 9th in points
It’s been amazing to see the resurgence that Roush Racing has had this year. From both drivers being on the outside a year ago to both being locked in before the cutoff race, Brad Keselowski has led the team back to their winning ways. Even though the bossman lacks a win with his new outfit, Keselowksi’s form has by no means wavered. With Talladega in the second round, I can think of no better time for the 2012 champion to finally return to victory lane and run his new team into the round of 8.
8. Tyler Reddick: 10th in points
After sweeping the Kansas races last year, 23XI’s #45 team was a proven championship contender. Tyler Reddick’s dominant win at the Circuit of the Americas in March showed the true potential of the #45. The team has faced some internal problems however. Pit stop issues have consistently dogged the 23XI duo, arguably taking the Michigan race out of Reddick’s hands. There’s no doubt in my mind that Reddick and the #45 car have the speed to make a deep playoff run, but if the pit issues aren’t sorted out then the #45 is at risk of going home early.
9. Michael McDowell: 13th in points
The 2021 Daytona 500 champion shocked the world two weeks ago by winning in a dominant drive at the Indy Road Course. Naturally, the Front Row #34 is an underdog entering the playoffs but with both Talladega and the Roval in the second round, if McDowell and the team could easily make a big splash should he survive the first round.
10. Ricky Stenhouse Jr: 14th in points
Ricky Stenhouse kicked off the year in as good of a way as one can, winning the Daytona 500. While it had been in the cards for a while, many chose to write it off as luck and cite Stenhouse as a first round exit. However, Stenhouse has shown that he is more than capable of running where he needs to be. Since the win in February, the #47 has been hovering around the playoff cutline with multiple solid runs and, while the JTG team may be considered an outsider, if the team can execute in the first round then an advancement to the round of 12 would undoubtedly be considered a successful year.
11. Kevin Harvick: 15th in points
One final playoff appearance for Happy Harvick from Bakersfield. As Kevin Harvick looks to hang-up the helmet at years end, he still has a shot at one final championship. While he is winless on the year, Harvick has proven this year that he still has the potential to get it done. With many strong tracks for the #4 laying in the playoffs, don’t be surprised if The Closer can close out his illustrious career with a final win and his 2nd championship.
12. Bubba Wallace: 16th in points
Last but not least, Bubba Wallace makes the playoffs for the first time in his cup series career. While he may be last in the standings so far, don’t completely write the #23 out as a first round exit. With Kansas in the first round, 23XI looks to make a big splash. However, Bubba is still dogged by the same pitstop issues that face teammate Reddick, so the #23 will have to prove they have the consistency and speed on pitroad as well as on the racetrack if they want to make a good impression in the 2023 playoffs.
My predictions:
Round of 16:# 34, #47, #23, #8
Round of 12: #45, #4,# 6, #1
Round of 8:# 12, #22, #20, #17
Championship Round: #19, #11, #5
Champion: #24
The 21st running of the NASCAR postseason begins this weekend at the Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway, at 6PM EST on USA Network.
Featured Image Credits: Patrick Vallely
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